10 Jan
NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 13 JAN 2025
Indian Stock Market Report – January 10
Key Indices Performance
Sensex: Closed at 77,378.91, down 241.30 points or 0.31%.
Nifty 50: Closed at 23,431.50, down 95 points or 0.40%.
Intraday Highlights
Sensex:
Opened: 77,682.59 (Previous close: 77,620.21).
Intraday low: 77,099.55 (-0.70%).
Final close: 77,378.91 (-241 points).
Nifty 50:
Opened: 23,551.90 (Previous close: 23,526.50).
Intraday low: 23,344.35 (-0.80%).
Final close: 23,431.50 (-95 points).
Broader Market Performance
BSE Midcap Index: Down 2.13%.
BSE Smallcap Index: Down 2.40%.
Market Trends
Sectoral Indices:
Gains:
Nifty IT: Up 3.44%, buoyed by strong Q3 results from TCS.
Losses:
Nifty Media: Down 3.59%.
Realty: Down 2.77%.
PSU Bank: Down 2.72%.
Healthcare and Pharma: Down 2.21% and 2.13%, respectively.
Consumer Durables, Private Bank, Metal: Lost 1.6%-2.0%.
Investor Sentiment:
Cautious ahead of December quarter earnings.
Continued foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows.
Market Cap:
Decline of nearly ?12 lakh crore over three sessions.
BSE-listed firms` total market cap fell below ?430 lakh crore (from ?442 lakh crore on January 7).
Key Factors Impacting the Market
Global Cues:
Rising US dollar and bond yields.
US treasury yields at eight-month highs.
Strong US macroeconomic data and reduced prospects of significant US Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Domestic Concerns:
Indian rupee depreciation against the US dollar.
Weakness in Asian markets.
Economic growth slowdown: GDP projected at 6.4% for FY24-25 (four-year low).
Sectoral Performance:
IT: Resilient due to strong Q3 results from TCS.
Banking: May face pressure despite anticipated good results due to FPI selling.
FPI Activity:
Net outflows exceeding ?19,000 crore till January 9.
Technical Analysis
Nifty 50:
Formed a bearish candle on daily charts, indicating further weakness.
Resistance Levels: 24,000-24,150.
Support Levels: 23,250 and below.
RSI trending lower, indicating weakening momentum.
Sensex:
Resistance: 78,000.
Support: 77,200-77,300.
Outlook
Short-Term:
Market expected to remain volatile with stock-specific actions driven by Q3 earnings.
Traders should remain cautious and focus on selective opportunities.
Medium-Term:
Concerns over high valuations and slowing growth may weigh on the market.
Potential headwinds from global and domestic economic uncertainties.
Conclusion
The Indian equity market remains under pressure due to weak global cues, foreign capital outflows, and domestic growth concerns. While the IT sector provides some resilience, broader market trends signal caution for investors in the near term.
07 Jan
Market Update: Nifty Signals Mixed Sentiments
The Nifty witnessed a day of consolidation, forming an inside bar candle on the daily chart, and closed near the 23,700 mark. Market participants remain cautious as technical indicators delivered mixed signals.
RSI and Stochastic RSI Divergence:
The RSI at 43 reflects bearish momentum, while the Stochastic RSI displayed a bullish crossover, hinting at a potential short-term recovery. This divergence highlights the lack of a clear directional bias, emphasizing the need for vigilance.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: 23,600 (critical level); breach could lead to corrections toward 23,400 and 23,000.
Resistance: 23,800 and 24,000 remain crucial barriers for the bulls.
Open Interest Analysis:
Call Side: Highest OI at 24,000 and 23,800 strike prices indicates significant resistance zones.
Put Side: Maximum OI at 23,500, followed by 23,700, suggests these levels as key support areas.
The divergence in technical indicators reflects the market`s indecisiveness, urging traders to approach with caution.
04 Jan
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 6 JAN 2025
Market Report: January 3, 2025
Indian benchmark indices ended their two-day winning streak and closed lower on January 3. The Nifty settled near the 24,000 mark, and the Sensex posted a decline as broader markets reflected the cautious sentiment.
Market Summary:
Sensex: Down 720.60 points (-0.90%) to 79,223.11
Nifty: Down 183.90 points (-0.76%) to 24,004.75
After a flat opening, the Nifty traded within a narrow range, closing near the day’s low of 24,005. The pullback was largely attributed to a pause following the recent three-day rally, with markets shedding over half a percent.
Sectoral Performance:
Gainers:
Energy
FMCG
Losers:
IT (-1%)
Pharma (-1%)
Banks (-1%)
Capital Goods (-1%)
The broader indices mirrored the benchmarks, with the BSE Midcap index down 0.33% and the Smallcap index ending flat.
Market Breadth:
Advances: 2,048 shares
Declines: 1,778 shares
Unchanged: 111 shares
Stock Performance:
Major Losers:
Wipro
ICICI Bank
HDFC Bank
Tech Mahindra
Adani Ports
Major Gainers:
ONGC
Tata Motors
SBI Life Insurance
Titan Company
HUL
Analysis:
The decline in indices is seen as a healthy correction following a brief recovery. The market`s inability to sustain momentum highlights ongoing concerns:
Pessimism due to:
Slowing domestic growth
Higher valuations
Foreign fund outflows
Uncertainty over U.S. trade policies under President Trump’s administration
Outlook:
The Nifty faces resistance at 24,250, and further pullbacks may occur unless this level is decisively breached. Investors are advised to remain stock-specific, focusing on outperforming sectors like FMCG, auto, and energy.
Caution remains the watchword as markets navigate global uncertainties and domestic challenges. However, selective opportunities aligned with sectoral trends may offer favorable returns in the near term.
30 Dec
NIFTY VIEW FOR 31 DEC 2024
The Indian stock markets witnessed a sharp downturn in late afternoon trading on Monday, with the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty indices closing significantly lower. Key factors such as foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, weak global cues, and a depreciating rupee weighed heavily on investor sentiment.
Key Indices Performance
BSE Sensex: The index closed at 78,248, down 450 points or 0.6% from the previous session’s close. The Sensex fell over 1% from its intraday high.
NSE Nifty: Nifty ended the session at 23,645, losing 168 points or 0.7%. Like the Sensex, it also slipped more than 1% from its intraday peak.
Market breadth remained weak throughout the session, indicating broad-based selling pressure across sectors.
Sectoral Highlights
Gainers:
Nifty Pharma: Bucked the bearish trend with a 1% gain, driven by strong performances from stocks like Sun Pharma (+1.2%) and Cipla (+1%).
Other indices such as Consumer Durable, FMCG, and IT managed to close slightly positive.
Losers:
Nifty Auto: The worst-performing sector, down 1.4%.
Nifty Bank: Lost 0.7%, despite leading an intraday recovery earlier.
Energy, Infrastructure, and Metals indices also witnessed losses ranging from 0.5% to 1.5%.
Stock Highlights
Top Gainers:
Adani Enterprises: Surged 7.5% to close at ?2,592, making it the top performer on the Nifty.
HCL Tech: Gained 2%.
Tech Mahindra: Rose by 1.7%.
Top Losers:
Hindalco: Fell 2.6%.
Bharat Electronics, Trent, and Tata Motors: Declined by up to 2.5% each.
Volatility and Currency Impact
India VIX: The volatility index increased by 5.5% to close at 13.97, reflecting heightened uncertainty.
Rupee Depreciation: The Indian rupee continued to weaken, nearing the 86-per-dollar mark, reducing the appeal of Indian equities to foreign investors due to lower returns in dollar terms.
Global and Domestic Factors
The persistent FII outflows and global cues contributed to the bearish sentiment. A weakening rupee added to the concerns, making Indian assets less attractive to international investors. Broader global uncertainties and sector-specific headwinds also influenced the day’s trading pattern.
Outlook
With continued FII selling pressure and currency weakness, the near-term outlook for Indian equities remains cautious. Market participants will closely monitor global economic developments and domestic macroeconomic indicators to assess further movement.
Investors are advised to adopt a selective approach, focusing on sectors showing resilience, such as pharmaceuticals, and remain cautious about high-volatility segments like autos and metals.
27 Dec
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 30 DECEMBER 2024
Daily Market Report: December 27
Key Highlights:
Sensex: Up 226.59 points (+0.29%) to 78,699.07
Nifty: Up 63.20 points (+0.27%) to 23,813.40
Advance/Decline Ratio: 1866 shares advanced, 1946 shares declined, 113 shares unchanged
Market Overview:
Indian benchmark indices ended with gains on December 27, driven by strength in Asian equities. Nifty closed above the 23,800 mark, while Sensex advanced to 78,699.07. However, the session saw range-bound action with resistance at the 23,900-24,000 levels, which capped further gains. Profit-taking in the mid-session caused indices to drift lower from their intraday highs.
Technical Analysis:
A small green candle with an upper shadow formed on the daily chart indicates an attempt to break out of the narrow range but lacked conviction.
The downside gap from December 19 remains unfilled, signaling potential bearish undertones.
Resistance Levels: 24,000-24,200
Support Levels: 23,650
Sectoral Performance:
Gainers:
Nifty Auto Index: +1%, driven by expectations of higher December volumes and favorable valuations.
Nifty Pharma & Healthcare: +0.8%, showing strength in defensive sectors.
Nifty Bank: +0.3%, supported by select heavyweights.
Losers:
Nifty Metal & PSU Bank: -1% each.
Nifty Oil & Gas: -0.7%.
Nifty Realty & Consumer Durables: -0.5% each.
Global Markets:
Asian Markets: Continued their rally, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index logging its fifth consecutive gain. Tokyo stocks surged due to yen weakness driven by unclear signals from the Bank of Japan.
European Markets: Stoxx Europe 600 edged up 0.2% in light holiday trading.
US Markets: Equity futures dipped as markets digested a lackluster session on Wall Street. Treasury yields and the dollar remained stable.
Stock Highlights:
Gainers:
Dr. Reddy`s Labs, M&M, IndusInd Bank, Eicher Motors, Bajaj Finance.
Losers:
Hindalco Industries, SBI, ONGC, Coal India, Bharat Electronics.
Midcap and Smallcap Indices: Midcap index remained flat, while smallcap index rose 0.3%.
Key Observations:
Consolidation continued as the market remained volatile and lacked conviction.
Late profit-taking capped gains, especially in sectoral heavyweights.
Rupee’s record low against the dollar and foreign investors’ cautious stance contributed to uncertainty.
Outlook:
The short-term trend for Nifty is slightly positive but remains range-bound. Resistance levels at 24,000-24,200 may provide a sell-on-rise opportunity. Defensive sectors like pharma and healthcare, along with select heavyweight stocks, present promising opportunities. Traders are advised to stay stock-specific and maintain a balanced approach on both sides of the market.
26 Dec
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 27 DECEMBER 2024
Market Analysis Report: December 26, 2024
Overview of Market Performance
The Indian benchmark indices concluded on a flat note in a volatile trading session on December 26. The BSE Sensex ended marginally lower by 0.39 points at 78,472, while the NSE Nifty gained 22.55 points, to close at 23,750.
On the final expiry day of the year, the domestic market exhibited a lackluster performance, influenced by holiday closures in global peer markets and the absence of significant domestic or international triggers. Gains in the auto sector, following recent corrections, were counterbalanced by concerns over Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) outflows and a depreciating rupee. These factors were fueled by the strengthening US dollar index and apprehensions about potential adverse tariffs and rate cut concerns for 2025.
Key Observations and Trends
Nifty’s Performance:
The Nifty index traded within a narrow range of 300 points during the week.
The index struggled to break above the 23,870 level while maintaining support near 23,600 over the past three sessions.
This tussle between bullish and bearish forces resulted in multiple Doji candles and inside bars on the daily chart, signaling market indecision.
Technical Indicators:
The Nifty is currently hovering near its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
It remains below its short-term moving averages, indicating potential bearish sentiment.
On the weekly chart, a Doji candle formation suggests support-based buying but points to limited upside potential.
FII Activity:
Persistent FII selling pressure is evident, with the Long-Short ratio declining to 23%.
This trend reflects cautious investor sentiment amidst global and domestic uncertainties.
Market Projections
Support and Resistance Levels:
As long as the Nifty remains above the 23,500 zone, the index may see swings toward the 23,900-24,000 range.
Downside support is strong around 23,600, with a broader trading range projected between 23,200 and 24,200.
Option Data Insights:
Maximum Call Open Interest (OI): 24,000 followed by 25,000 strike levels.
Maximum Put OI: 23,800 followed by 23,000 strike levels.
Call writing: Observed at 23,800 and 24,000 strikes.
Put writing: Concentrated at 23,800 and 23,000 strikes.
This data suggests an immediate trading range of 23,500-23,900, with a broader outlook of 23,200-24,200.
Sectoral Highlights
Auto Sector: Gained traction following recent corrections, signaling renewed buying interest.
Currency and Macro Factors: Concerns over a depreciating rupee and strengthening US dollar index remain significant headwinds. Potential adverse tariffs and rate cut uncertainties for 2025 continue to weigh on market sentiment.
Conclusion
The Indian equity market remains in a consolidation phase with no clear directional bias. Key levels for the Nifty index and evolving macroeconomic factors will likely shape short-term market trends. Investors are advised to remain cautious, focusing on technical levels and sector-specific opportunities while keeping a close watch on global cues and FII activity.
25 Dec
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 26 DEC 2024
Indian Equity Indices End Marginally Lower in a Volatile Session on December 24
The Indian stock market concluded on a subdued note on December 24, with key indices ending slightly lower after a range-bound trading session. The Sensex closed at 78,472.87, down 67.30 points (0.09%), while the Nifty ended at 23,727.65, down 25.80 points (0.11%).
Market Highlights
Broader Market Performance:
Around 1,907 shares advanced, 1,926 shares declined, and 94 shares remained unchanged.
Midcaps moved in tandem with the frontline indices, while smallcaps marginally outperformed, gaining 0.3%.
Sectoral Performance:
Top Gainers: Auto, FMCG, and oil & gas sectors saw buying interest, supported by recent corrections.
Top Losers: IT, media, metal, and PSU bank sectors faced selling pressure, with notable intraday profit booking in metal and PSU bank stocks.
Key Stock Movers:
Gainers: Tata Motors, Adani Enterprises, Eicher Motors, BPCL, and ITC.
Losers: Power Grid Corp, JSW Steel, SBI Life Insurance, Titan Company, and SBI.
Technical Overview
The Nifty remained mostly range-bound, forming a small inside-body candle on the daily chart. The index closed below the 200-day moving average (200-DMA) for the first time in three sessions, confirming a short-term bearish trend.
Support Levels: 23,500–23,400.
Resistance Levels: 23,860.
A breakout above 23,850 could trigger a rally toward 23,950–24,000, while selling pressure below 23,600 might push the index down to 23,500–23,475.
Market Sentiment
The RSI shows a bearish crossover, reinforcing a cautious outlook.
The market texture remains non-directional, with traders awaiting a decisive breakout in either direction.
Factors Influencing the Market
Global and Domestic Concerns:
A strong dollar, elevated bond yields, and concerns about rate cuts weigh on sentiment.
The Indian rupee hitting an all-time low has also added to the cautious mood.
Upcoming Catalysts:
The trajectory of the market in the near term will depend on Q3 corporate earnings and the Union Budget.
Summary
Despite a positive start driven by gains in the auto and FMCG sectors, the Nifty failed to sustain above 23,850, reversing gains and closing flat. The day’s action highlighted a well-defined range between 23,650–23,850, with a breakout necessary to determine the market’s next direction.
Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance in the short term while monitoring global cues and upcoming domestic developments.
20 Dec
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 23 DEC 2024
Indian Equity Market Report: December 20
Key Highlights:
Market Performance:
The Nifty 50 closed at 23,587.50, down 364.2 points (1.52%).
The Sensex ended at 78,041.59, losing 1,176.46 points (1.49%).
Broader indices experienced sharper declines, with losses ranging from 2.2% to 3%.
Global and Domestic Factors:
US Federal Reserve`s Rate Cut:
A 25 basis points rate cut was announced, aligning with expectations. However, the signal of only two rate cuts in 2025 disappointed global markets.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell revised the 2025 inflation forecast upward, emphasizing persistent inflation risks.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) Activity:
FIIs net sold Rs 12,230 crore worth of Indian equities over the past four sessions, reversing their earlier buying spree.
A strong US dollar and higher US Treasury yields (10-year at ~4.52%) have reduced the appeal of emerging markets like India.
Valuation Concerns:
The Nifty’s one-year forward P/E stands at nearly 20x, exceeding its 10-year historical average of 18.97x, leaving little margin of safety.
Sectoral Analysis:
Realty, IT, and Auto Sectors:
These sectors faced the steepest declines due to selling pressure.
IT stocks, which previously outperformed on anticipation of rate cuts, were notably impacted by the Fed’s hawkish stance.
Mid- and Small-Cap Stocks:
Valuations at historical peaks led to significant underperformance, with these indices falling sharply.
Technical Analysis:
The Nifty breached its 200-day exponential moving average (200 DEMA) at 23,870 on Thursday, intensifying selling pressure.
Friday’s session saw the index dip below critical support levels at 23,850, exposing further downside toward the 23,700–23,500 range.
Resistance for recovery lies between 23,850 and 24,000.
Key Challenges Ahead:
Persistent Selling Pressure:
Concerns over high valuations and sluggish earnings growth continue to weigh heavily on investor sentiment.
Global Uncertainty:
Apprehensions about upcoming trade policies under the incoming US administration and their potential global market impact.
Dollar Strength:
The rupee’s weakness against the dollar is prompting FIIs to shift investments to safer dollar assets.
Outlook:
The November low of 23,250 emerges as a crucial support level.
Traders are advised to maintain a cautious stance and prioritize risk management.
Upcoming Q3 FY25 corporate earnings may provide some clarity but are unlikely to spur immediate recovery given broader market conditions.
Conclusion:
The Indian equity markets remain under pressure due to a confluence of global and domestic factors, including hawkish signals from the US Fed, FII outflows, high valuations, and sluggish earnings growth. Breaching key technical levels has intensified bearish sentiment, and the market’s ability to sustain critical support levels will determine its near-term trajectory.
13 Dec
NIFTY PREDICTION FOR 16 DEC 2024
Market Overview On December 13, Indian equity indices closed on a strong note with the Nifty surging above 24,750. The Sensex gained 843.16 points (1.04%) to close at 82,133.12, while the Nifty added 219.60 points (0.89%) to end at 24,768.30.
The trading session was characterized by significant volatility, with the Nifty experiencing sharp swings in both directions before closing near the day’s high. Despite a weak opening, markets recovered, supported by value buying in banking, IT, and telecom sectors amid improving macroeconomic indicators.
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart: Nifty tested its 20-day moving average (24,200) and rebounded sharply. The index’s strong close near the day’s high indicates the potential for further upside.
Weekly Chart: The Nifty formed an Inside Bar candlestick pattern, making the extremes of the previous candle (24,858 – 24,009) crucial levels to watch for the upcoming week.
Key Levels:
Resistance: Immediate resistance is expected at 24,800, with potential upside targets at 25,125 and higher.
Support: Key support levels are positioned at 24,550 and 24,400.
Derivative Data
Short Covering: Significant short covering was observed at the 24,600 CE.
Put Writing: Strong put writing occurred at 24,500 and 24,400 strikes.
PCR: The Nifty Weekly Put-Call Ratio (PCR) improved from 0.70 to 1.04, signaling bullish sentiment.
Sectoral Highlights
Gainers:
FMCG, IT, Banking, Telecom: These sectors led the gains, rising 0.5% to 2%. The FMCG sector outperformed due to easing food inflation, festive demand, and price hikes by companies.
Top Gainers: Bharti Airtel, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ITC, UltraTech Cement, and HUL.
Losers:
Realty, Metal, Media: These sectors declined by 0.5% each.
Top Losers: Shriram Finance, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Hindalco, and JSW Steel.
Broader Indices: Both the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices ended on a flat note.
Market Drivers
Improving Macroeconomic Indicators:
Moderation in food inflation.
Uptick in Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth numbers.
Value Buying: Investors showed interest in beaten-down sectors like banking, IT, and telecom.
Consumer Spending Outlook: Anticipation of higher spending during the festive season and year-end holidays boosted market sentiment.
Brookfield India REIT Capital Raise Brookfield India Real Estate Trust raised ?3,500 crore through a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) to reduce debt. This marked the first REIT investment in India by the International Finance Corporation (World Bank Group) and Life Insurance Corporation of India. The issue attracted strong demand from institutions, mutual funds, and insurance companies.
Outlook for the Upcoming Week The Nifty’s strong finish near the day’s high and improving derivative data suggest positive momentum is likely to persist. A breakout above 24,800 could pave the way for a move toward 25,125 and beyond. On the downside, support at 24,400 and 24,550 will be crucial. Participants are advised to:
Focus on IT and banking sectors.
Employ robust risk management strategies to navigate market volatility effectively.
Conclusion Indian equities demonstrated resilience by rebounding from a weak start and closing on a positive note. With supportive macroeconomic data, sectoral strength in FMCG, IT, and banking, and bullish technical patterns, the markets appear poised for further gains in the short term.
06 Dec
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 7 DEC 2024
Overview: The Indian equity market witnessed a volatile trading session on December 6, closing marginally lower despite mixed sentiment. The Sensex declined by 56.74 points (0.07%) to close at 81,709.12, while the Nifty dropped by 30.60 points (0.12%) to end at 24,677.80. Midcap and smallcap indices continued their strong performance, gaining 0.3% and 0.6% respectively, reflecting optimism in broader markets.
Key Highlights:
Market Sentiment: A narrow trading range dominated the session as the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy announcements aligned with market expectations, offering no major surprises.
Sector Performance: Gains were observed in auto, metal, FMCG, telecom, and PSU Bank sectors (up 0.3%-1%). However, IT and media sectors ended in the red.
Stock Movers:
Top Gainers: Bajaj Auto, Axis Bank, SBI Life, Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki.
Top Losers: Adani Ports, Cipla, Bharti Airtel, HDFC Life, Asian Paints.
Market Breadth: Approximately 2298 shares advanced, 1529 declined, and 98 remained unchanged, reflecting a positive breadth in broader indices.
RBI Monetary Policy Insights:
The RBI maintained the repo rate at 6.5%, citing persistent core inflation above tolerance levels.
The Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) was reduced from 4.5% to 4%, injecting ?1.16 lakh crore into the financial system to support growth.
Projections for FY25 GDP growth were revised downward to 6.6% (from 7.2%), while inflation forecasts were adjusted to 4.8% (from 4.5%).
Market Analysis:
The Nifty sustains above the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout, suggesting a strong technical setup. A buy-on-dips strategy is recommended to capitalize on potential upward momentum, with a target of 25,500 in the short term.
Despite the broader market optimism, minor pullbacks may follow recent rallies, emphasizing selective stock picking across resilient sectors like auto, metal, and midcaps.
Currency Market:
The Indian Rupee appreciated due to:
RBI’s unchanged repo rate decision.
Decline in US Dollar and crude oil prices.
The Rupee faced pressure due to the downward revision of GDP growth and inflation projections for FY25, coupled with demand for the US Dollar.
USDINR Outlook: Expected to trade between ?84.45 and ?84.95. Weakness in crude oil and FII inflows may support the Rupee.
Conclusion: The Indian equity market is showcasing a cautious yet optimistic outlook amid sector rotation and mixed macroeconomic signals. While benchmark indices remained flat, broader indices displayed strength, particularly in midcap and smallcap stocks. Investors are advised to adopt a selective approach with a buy-on-dips strategy, focusing on sectors with robust growth potential.
Further cues will be shaped by global economic data, including the US non-farm payrolls report, which could influence market sentiment in the coming sessions.
04 Dec
NIFTY VIEW FOR 5 DEC 2024
Market Report – December 4, 2024
The Indian equity markets extended their gains for the fourth consecutive session on December 4, driven by strength in banking and realty stocks. Despite intraday volatility and mixed global cues, the markets maintained a positive trajectory, signaling resilience ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy announcement.
Key Indices Performance
Sensex: Gained 110.58 points (+0.14%) to close at 80,956.33.
Nifty 50: Rose by 10.30 points (+0.04%) to end at 24,467.45.
Market Highlights
Nifty Overview:
The Nifty remained choppy throughout the session, reflecting caution among investors.
Immediate resistance is seen at 24,660, with 24,350 acting as a crucial support level.
Sectoral Performance:
Top Gainers: PSU Banks (+2.1%) and Realty (+2.3%) sectors led the rally.
Underperformers: FMCG (-0.7%) and Auto (-0.7%) sectors faced pressure.
IT & Media: Moderate gains of 0.5% each.
Broader Markets:
Midcap Index: Advanced by 1.05%.
Smallcap Index: Rose 0.89%.
Top Gainers & Losers:
Gainers: HDFC Life, HDFC Bank, Apollo Hospitals, NTPC, and Bajaj Finserv.
Losers: Bharti Airtel, Cipla, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors, and Adani Ports.
Technical Insights
A Spinning Top candlestick pattern on the charts highlights indecision among market participants.
Broader market sentiment remains positive, suggesting any dip may be seen as a buying opportunity.
Immediate Levels:
Resistance: 24,660 to 24,700.
Support: 24,350.
Factors Influencing the Market
Domestic Momentum:
Strength in PSU Banks and Realty sectors.
Continued confidence in broader markets, as evidenced by midcap and smallcap gains.
Global Sentiments:
Mixed cues from Asian markets due to geopolitical concerns in South Korea.
Anticipation of the Federal Reserve Chair`s upcoming speech, as recent FED minutes indicate easing inflation.
Macroeconomic Expectations:
Caution ahead of the RBI policy announcement.
Speculation on the continuation of the US rate-easing cycle, which could impact foreign inflows.
Outlook for December 5, 2024
The market is expected to consolidate after recent gains, with a focus on stock-specific movements.
Positive sentiment is likely to persist, but traders should remain cautious of resistance at higher levels.
Sectors like banking and financials may continue to drive momentum, while profit-booking could limit the upside.
Advice for Traders
Adopt a stock-specific approach and accumulate quality stocks during dips.
Monitor key levels of 24,660 and 24,350 for directional cues.
Keep an eye on global events, including US Federal Reserve updates and geopolitical developments, for potential market impacts.
03 Dec
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 4 DEC 2024
Indian equity markets extended their gains for the third consecutive session on December 3, 2024, driven by positive global sentiment, robust buying in banking, and media stocks, while selective profit booking was observed in defensive sectors.
Market Overview
Sensex:
Closed at 80,845.75, up 597.67 points (+0.74%).
Nifty:
Closed at 24,457.15, up 181.10 points (+0.75%).
Advance-Decline Ratio:
Advancers: 2,647, Decliners: 1,190, Unchanged: 99
Sectoral Performance
Top Performing Sectors:
PSU Banks (+2%)
Media (+2%)
Subdued Sectors:
FMCG and Pharma experienced intraday profit booking.
Top Gainers and Losers (Nifty 50)
Top Gainers:
Adani Ports
NTPC
Adani Enterprises
Axis Bank
SBI
Top Losers:
Bharti Airtel
ITC
Hero MotoCorp
HDFC Life
Sun Pharma
Technical Highlights
Nifty closed above the critical resistance level of 24,350, signaling further upside potential.
Formation of a bullish candle on daily charts along with a higher bottom pattern indicates positive sentiment.
Key Levels:
Support: 24,350 / 24,250
Resistance: 24,600 / 24,700
The breakout from an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern confirms a trend reversal, with a projected target of 25,440.
Trading Strategy
For Bulls:
Adopt a "buy on dips" approach as long as indices trade above 24,350.
For Bears:
Watch for a break below 24,350, which could trigger correction toward 24,150.
Currency Update
The Indian Rupee touched a record low early in the session due to strong USD momentum and economic slowdown concerns. However, RBI intervention and strong equity performance led to recovery.
USD/INR Range: 84.45 - 84.90
Outlook
Sustained momentum could push Nifty towards 24,700 in the near term.
Midcap and smallcap indices are likely to outperform, supported by renewed investor confidence.
Continued focus on RBI policies, global cues, and corporate earnings will drive market direction.
Investor Focus Areas:
Banking (especially PSU) and IT sectors hold potential for further upside.
Cautious approach recommended for FMCG and Pharma.
This strong start to December showcases resilience amidst global uncertainties, hinting at optimism for year-end performance.
02 Dec
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 3 DEC 2024
Key Highlights:
Sensex closed at 80,248.08, up 445.29 points or 0.59%.
Nifty ended at 24,276, up 144.90 points or 0.60%.
Sectoral Performance:
Realty, Pharma, Metal, Auto, and Media sectors gained over 1%.
Broader indices outperformed, with BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices rising nearly 1% each.
PSU Banks and FMCG underperformed.
Index Insights:
Nifty:
Resistance: Immediate resistance is at 24,350, a key neckline of the Inverted Head & Shoulder formation. A breakout above this level could push the index towards 24,770.
Support: Crucial support levels are at 24,100 and 24,000.
Momentum: The bullish harami pattern and a green candle on the daily chart indicate sustained positive momentum. The RSI has also broken out of consolidation and is in a bullish crossover.
Bank Nifty:
Recovered 500 points from intraday lows to close 53 points higher.
Resistance: Expected upward momentum towards 52,800–53,000.
Support: Short-term critical levels are at 51,700–51,500.
Sectoral Performance:
Top Gainers: Realty, Pharma, and Metal sectors led the rally, with heavyweights from these sectors providing significant support.
Mixed Performance: Auto and IT sectors remained resilient, while PSU Banks and FMCG witnessed subdued activity.
Midcap and Smallcap: Continued their strong performance, outpacing the benchmarks and contributing to the market breadth.
Stock Movement:
Top Gainers:
UltraTech Cement
Apollo Hospitals
Grasim Industries
JSW Steel
Shriram Finance
Top Losers:
HDFC Life
Cipla
NTPC
SBI Life Insurance
L&T
Market Sentiment:
Positive Indicators:
Recovery in October’s core sector output.
Hopes of supportive RBI measures ahead of its policy meeting.
Strong performance across Realty and Metal sectors.
Cautionary Notes:
Disappointing GDP data for Q2 weighed on sentiment initially.
Anticipation of a cut in GDP forecast and cautious stance on rate cuts due to unfavorable inflation dynamics.
Technical Outlook:
Nifty Outlook:
Closing above the 40-day moving average of 24,300 signals potential for continued uptrend.
Immediate hurdle at 24,420; surpassing this could trigger a rally towards 24,770.
Bank Nifty Outlook:
Momentum indicators align positively, with room for gains towards 52,800 and 53,000.
Conclusion:
Markets started the week on a strong footing, defying weak macroeconomic signals with a recovery driven by select heavyweights. The broad-based rally, led by Realty and Pharma, indicates resilience and potential for further gains. However, the upcoming RBI policy announcement and macroeconomic uncertainties may keep investor sentiment cautious. A selective approach with a focus on fundamentally strong stocks is advised.
29 Nov
MONDAY 2 DEC NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS
The Indian equity market rebounded strongly on November 29, 2024, erasing some of the previous session`s losses. Both Sensex and Nifty indices closed on a high note, bolstered by gains in key sectors like pharma, energy, and auto.
Key Highlights:
Sensex and Nifty Performance:
Sensex: Gained 759.05 points (+0.96%), closing at 79,802.79.
Nifty 50: Rose by 216.90 points (+0.91%), settling at 24,131.10.
Market Breadth:
Advancing stocks: 2241
Declining stocks: 1564
Unchanged: 88
Volatility Index:
India VIX cooled off by 5.12% to 14.43, signaling reduced market volatility.
Sectoral Performance:
Top Gainers:
Auto, Energy, Pharma, Media: Advanced by 1-2%, leading the day`s rally.
Key performers: Bharti Airtel, Cipla, Sun Pharma, M&M, Adani Ports.
Underperformers:
Realty and PSU Bank indices closed in the red.
Notable laggards: Power Grid Corp, Shriram Finance, Hero MotoCorp, Nestle, Apollo Hospitals.
Indices Movement:
BSE Midcap Index: Up 0.3%.
Smallcap Index: Increased by 0.7%.
Technical Analysis:
Nifty 50:
Reclaimed the 21-Day Exponential Moving Average (DEMA), indicating strength.
Formed a green candle on the daily chart, showing potential for further upward momentum.
Resistance Levels: 24,350–24,360.
Support Levels:
Immediate: 24,080 (21-DEMA).
Critical: 23,570 (200-DEMA).
Bank Nifty:
Closed at 52,056 after initial volatility, consolidating in a narrow range.
Resistance Levels: 52,500–52,600.
Support Levels: 51,540 (21-DEMA).
Technical Indicators: Formation of an inside bar on the daily chart and a doji candle on the weekly scale point to market uncertainty.
Sectoral Insights:
Pharma & Healthcare:
Renewed growth due to strong earnings and moderated valuations.
Energy & Auto:
Continued strength amid robust demand, benefiting from the festive season.
IT and Banking:
Rebounded from recent declines and remain key to determining the broader market direction.
Smallcaps and Midcaps:
Smallcaps showed strong relative performance (+0.7%), while midcaps ended flat (+0.3%).
Global Sentiment:
Global market sentiment remained muted due to the yen`s appreciation and persistent inflation in Japan.
Domestic markets reflected confidence as Q2 GDP slowdown to 6.5% was already priced into corporate earnings.
Investor Strategy:
Stock Selection: Focus on large-cap stability and selective smallcap opportunities with strong performance.
Profit Booking: Traders are advised to book profits near resistance levels and await fresh breakouts, particularly in the Nifty above 24,360 and Bank Nifty above 52,600.
Sectoral Focus: Pharma, auto, and energy sectors remain attractive for short-term gains. IT and banking performance should be monitored closely.
Conclusion:
The broad-based rally, driven by large-cap stocks, signifies resilience in the Indian equity market. With reduced volatility and sectoral strength, investors are advised to adopt a balanced approach, leveraging opportunities in both defensive and cyclical sectors while being cautious at resistance levels.
27 Nov
Stock Market Outlook Report: Bull, Base, and Bear Scenarios for Nifty 50
Summary of Nifty Targets:
Bull Case: 28,575
Base Case: 25,977
Bear Case: 23,379
InCred Equities adopts a cautious stance on the Nifty`s trajectory due to delayed RBI rate cuts and elevated expectations around earnings recovery. Political stability, especially with BJP`s strong performance in Maharashtra`s assembly elections, is expected to reinvigorate government capital expenditure plans.
Key Market Insights:
Valuation and EPS Analysis
Forward P/E: Dropped below the 10-year mean, signaling a valuation correction.
Nifty EPS Trends: 2QFY25 EPS rose 8% YoY but remained flat QoQ. Nifty Bloomberg consensus EPS saw a 3-4% cut for FY25-FY26, with Nifty-200 seeing a milder 2% reduction.
Sectoral Upgrades & Downgrades:
Upgrades:
Pharmaceuticals (Cipla, Ipca Laboratories, Alkem Laboratories)
Utilities
Downgrades:
Commodities
FMCG
Capital Goods
Economic and Market Trends:
Economic Activity: Seasonal upticks in October-November due to festivals, but broader macroeconomic indicators (electricity consumption, IIP, PMI, loan growth) reflect cyclical slowdowns.
Rupee and FPI Trends:
Significant rupee depreciation against the dollar in November 2024.
FPI Outflows: $3.2 billion (1-15 Nov 2024), following $11.4 billion in October.
High-Conviction Investment Ideas:
Stock Picks with Potential Upside (Up to 94%):
Bajaj Finance Ltd
Bharat Forge Ltd
HDFC Bank Ltd
Lupin
Tata Steel Ltd
Hero MotoCorp
Cipla
State Bank of India (SBI)
Other Notable Picks:
TCS (Tata Consultancy Services)
InterGlobe Aviation
Maruti Suzuki India
Cyient DLM
Petronet LNG
SBI Card
Short-Term Strategies and Pair Trades:
To capitalize on a sideways market, the following pair trade ideas were introduced:
Pidilite Industries vs. Asian Paints
GAIL vs. Indraprastha Gas (IGL)
Bajaj Finance vs. Cholamandalam Finance
ABSL AMC vs. HDFC AMC
Economic & Fiscal Outlook:
Capex Targets: The government needs to spend ?1.2 lakh crore to meet FY25 budgeted targets. However, spending over ?1 lakh crore per month seems ambitious.
Macroeconomic Concerns:
RBI’s monetary tightening dampens short-term growth.
Gradual rural recovery while urban markets slow down.
Conclusion and Recommendations:
The Nifty correction phase is expected to persist as macroeconomic challenges hinder EPS momentum.
Portfolio adjustments favor large-caps and defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals.
Active pair trade strategies can provide returns amidst market volatility.
InCred Equities emphasizes maintaining a diversified portfolio while focusing on sectors with resilient earnings growth.
26 Nov
Indian Markets Struggle to Sustain Momentum Amid Global Concerns
After a sharp rally in the previous two trading sessions, Indian markets faced headwinds today as global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties re-emerged. President-elect Donald Trump’s announcement of tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada revived fears of global trade disruptions, prompting profit-booking by investors.
Adding to the unease were escalating geopolitical tensions, including reports of intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine and Iran’s plans to expand its nuclear fuel production. However, news of progress toward a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah provided a glimmer of optimism.
Key Indices Performance
Nifty 50: Dropped slightly by 0.11% to close at 24,194 points.
Sensex: Fell by 0.13%, ending at 80,004 points.
Nifty Midcap 100: Continued its rally, up 0.33% to close at 56,057 points.
Nifty Smallcap 100: Outperformed, gaining 0.85% to settle at 18,269 points.
Sectoral Highlights
Top Gainers
Nifty IT Index: Hit a record high of 44,244 points, bolstered by a surge in the dollar index.
Nifty FMCG Index: Rose 1%, driven by expectations of increased rural spending following the BJP’s electoral victory in Maharashtra.
Nifty Realty Index: Gained 0.60%, building on its 2.21% surge in the previous session, supported by political stability in Maharashtra.
Top Losers
Nifty Auto Index: Dropped 1.30%, with major automakers like Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, and Maruti Suzuki India shedding up to 3.2%.
Other Sectoral Indices: Nifty Energy, Pharma, Infra, Oil & Gas, and PSE indices ended in the red, reflecting subdued investor sentiment.
Stock Performance
Top Gainers
Shriram Finance: Led the pack with a 3.4% rise.
Other Strong Performers: Britannia Industries, Infosys, Bharat Electronics, Asian Paints, JSW Steel, Wipro, and TCS saw gains exceeding 1%.
Top Losers
Adani Group Stocks: Adani Enterprises fell 5.2%, while Adani Ports & SEZ declined 3.5%.
Auto Stocks: Bajaj Auto, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, Eicher Motors, and Hero MotoCorp posted significant losses.
PSU Stocks: Coal India, ONGC, Power Grid, and BPCL faced selling pressure, down 1–1.5%.
Market Sentiment
Global uncertainties cast a shadow over investor confidence, with trade tensions and geopolitical risks dominating the narrative. Nonetheless, political stability in Maharashtra and strong gains in IT and FMCG sectors provided some relief.
Outlook
Investors are expected to tread cautiously amid persistent global uncertainties. Developments in international trade relations and geopolitical conflicts will remain in focus. Domestically, political factors and sectoral performance could influence short-term market trends.
25 Nov
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 26 NOVEMBER 2024
The Indian stock markets experienced a robust rally today, with significant gains in the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty indices. Here are the key highlights and contributing factors:
Market Performance:
BSE Sensex: Jumped 1,289.89 points to close at 80,407.
NSE Nifty: Surged 405.25 points, finishing at 24,312.50.
Sectoral Gains: All 13 major sectors closed higher. PSU Bank index saw the most significant gain of 4.5%, while small- and mid-cap stocks also rose by about 2%.
Top Gainers:
Key contributors from the Sensex pack included:
Mahindra & Mahindra
Larsen & Toubro
State Bank of India
Reliance Industries
ICICI Bank
Bajaj Finance
Factors Behind the Rally:
BJP Victory in Maharashtra Elections:
The BJP-led alliance secured a decisive win, gaining 233 of 288 seats.
The election result bolstered market sentiment, especially in Maharashtra, home to Mumbai, India’s financial hub.
Investors anticipate policy stability and accelerated developmental initiatives in the state, leading to broad-based buying.
MSCI Index Rejig:
MSCI announced the inclusion of five new stocks in its Standard/EM Index for India, increasing the total to 156 stocks.
A net addition of 13 stocks in the Smallcap Index further boosted sentiment.
These adjustments reflect improving market dynamics and corporate performances.
Global Market Influence:
Positive cues from global markets, particularly gains in Seoul and Tokyo, supported the rally.
Declines in Chinese indices, such as the Shanghai Composite (-0.33%) and Hang Seng (-0.55%), may have contributed to reverse trade dynamics benefiting Indian equities.
Strong Performance of PSU Stocks:
Public sector undertakings (PSUs) like IRFC, BEL, RVNL, Bharat Dynamics, NBCC, and GAIL recorded gains of up to 8%, partly due to expectations of government-driven growth post-election.
Oil Price Movements:
Brent crude prices dipped slightly, trading at $74.89 per barrel, which is favorable for the Indian economy as it reduces input costs.
Market Outlook:
Sentiment is expected to remain upbeat, supported by political stability, global market trends, and the ongoing MSCI reshuffle.
While Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold equities worth ?1,278.37 crore on Friday, domestic optimism and a recovery in large-cap stocks are likely to sustain the market’s momentum in the short term.
This rally underscores the interplay of political outcomes, global cues, and domestic market dynamics in shaping investor sentiment.
22 Nov
Stock Market Report – November 22, 2024
Market Report – November 22, 2024
Key Highlights:
Nifty 50: Closed at 23,907, up 557 points (2.39%).
Sensex: Closed at 79,117, up 1,961 points (2.54%).
India VIX: Rose by 0.67% to 16.10, indicating slightly increased volatility.
Market Breadth:
Advancing shares: 2,340
Declining shares: 1,418
Unchanged shares: 118
Sectoral Performance:
All sectoral indices ended in the green:
Top Gainers:
PSU Banks, IT, FMCG, Energy, Realty: Up 2-3%.
Broader Indices:
BSE Midcap: Gained 1.3%.
BSE Smallcap: Rose nearly 1%.
Top Nifty Gainers:
State Bank of India
TCS
ITC
UltraTech Cement
Titan Company
Top Nifty Loser:
Bajaj Auto was the only stock to decline.
Technical Overview:
Nifty 50:
Formed a large green candle on the daily chart, signaling strength.
Broke the 23,800 barrier and closed above it.
However, it remains below the 21-day exponential moving average (24,040).
Immediate Resistance: 24,040–24,050.
Immediate Support: 23,800.
Short-Term Strategy: If Nifty sustains above 24,050, it may test 24,200-24,300 levels. A buy-on-dips approach is recommended.
Bank Nifty:
Closed at 51,135, up significantly.
Sustained above the hammer candle high of 50,652, breaking the resistance at 50,984.
Key Levels:
Support: 50,980.
Resistance: 51,500–52,000.
Outlook: Positive; further upside likely if the index holds above 50,980.
Market Drivers:
Relief Rally: Markets surged over 2% amid strong across-the-board buying, reversing a prior downtrend.
State Election Sentiment: Exit polls favoring BJP in upcoming elections boosted investor confidence.
Attractive Valuations: After weeks of selloff, large-cap stocks appeared appealing, driving buying interest.
Sector Leadership: IT and Realty sectors led the rally with gains over 3%.
Global Tailwinds:
Decline in Japan’s October inflation.
Announcement of a 39 trillion yen stimulus package in Japan.
Moderation in Political Risks: Both global and domestic political tensions eased, providing relief to markets.
Outlook:
Key Catalysts:
State election results on Monday are likely to set the tone for early trading next week.
Global market cues and corporate earnings expectations for H2 FY24 will remain crucial.
Nifty Strategy:
A decisive breakout above 24,050 could propel Nifty to 24,350.
Failure to sustain above 24,050 may trigger profit booking.
Sector Focus:
IT and Banking sectors exhibit strong momentum.
Broader market participation is expected but may lag large caps.
Conclusion:
The Indian markets showcased resilience with a strong rally driven by positive global cues, attractive valuations, and upbeat sentiment around state election exit polls. Immediate resistance levels remain critical for both Nifty and Bank Nifty, with a buy-on-dips strategy favored in the short term. Selective focus on IT, banking, and high-momentum sectors is recommended for traders.
21 Nov
NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION TRADING TIPS FOR 22 NOVEMBER 2024
The Indian equity markets ended lower on November 21, 2024, amid bearish sentiment triggered by domestic and global headwinds. Both benchmark indices faced selling pressure, with Nifty breaking below 23,400 and Sensex registering a significant decline.
Key Highlights
Sensex: Closed at 77,155, down 422 points (-0.54%).
Nifty: Closed at 23,349, down 168 points (-0.72%).
Market Breadth:
Advances: 1,180
Declines: 2,614
Unchanged: 89
Sectoral Performance
Gainers:
Realty: Gained 1%.
Information Technology: Rose by 0.5%.
Losers:
PSU Banks & Media: Declined over 2%.
Energy, FMCG, Oil & Gas, Auto, Metal: Down 1–2%.
The broader markets underperformed, with the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices falling by 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively.
Top Gainers and Losers
Top Nifty Gainers:
Power Grid Corp
UltraTech Cement
Hindalco Industries
HCL Tech
Grasim Industries
Top Nifty Losers:
Adani Enterprises
Adani Ports
SBI Life Insurance
NTPC
SBI
Technical Analysis
Nifty Insights:
The index closed below 23,400, forming another bearish candle, signaling the continuation of the downtrend.
Breaching the low of 23,350, Nifty is now poised to test the next critical support at 23,180. A breakdown below 23,000 may intensify selling pressure.
Immediate resistance is at 23,500 (20-DMA), while a decisive move above 23,800 is required for any meaningful reversal.
Bank Nifty Insights:
Bank Nifty tested the 200-DMA at 49,800, which provided support, closing at 49,982, down 253 points.
Crucial support: 49,800–50,000
Resistance: 50,900–51,000
Market Sentiment
The market sentiment remained weak, impacted by a series of factors:
Adani Group Concerns: News of bribery allegations against the Adani Group triggered a sell-off in its stocks, heavily influencing the broader market.
Global Headwinds: Renewed tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and nuclear concerns weighed on investor confidence. Weakness in Asian and European markets further exacerbated the negative sentiment.
FII Activity: Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) resumed heavy selling, especially in financials, contributing to the decline.
Outlook
Short-Term Sentiment: Bearish, with immediate support at 23,200. A breach could lead to further downside towards 23,000.
Upside Potential: Resistance at 23,550, with a rally likely only if the index decisively moves above 23,800.
Broader View: Stability in global and domestic political scenarios, along with resolution of Adani-related issues, could provide a much-needed boost to market sentiment.
Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on quality stocks with strong fundamentals, particularly in defensive sectors such as IT and Realty.
19 Nov
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 21 NOVEMBER 2024
Indian equity markets ended the day on a positive note amid heightened volatility. The benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, managed to close in the green but well below their intraday highs due to late-session selling pressure.
Market Highlights
Sensex: Closed at 77,578.38, up 239.37 points (0.31%).
Nifty 50: Closed at 23,518.50, up 64.70 points (0.28%).
Market Breadth:
Advances: 2,197 stocks.
Declines: 1,591 stocks.
Unchanged: 95 stocks.
Key Market Trends
Opening Momentum: Strong cues from Asian markets and bottom-fishing supported a robust start, but gains faded in the second half.
Sectoral Performance:
Gainers: Media, Realty, Auto, IT, and Pharma (up 0.5%-2.5%).
Laggards: Metal, Oil & Gas, and PSU Banks (down 0.5% each).
Broader Indices: Midcap and Smallcap indices outperformed, gaining nearly 1% each.
Technical Analysis
Nifty:
Resistance at 23,733 (40-hour average).
Strong support at 23,300, with 23,800 necessary for a trend reversal.
Formed a Doji candlestick pattern, signaling indecision.
Fibonacci retracement at 23,180 indicates a potential downside target.
Bank Nifty:
Closed near 50,800, falling short of intraday highs.
Weakness expected to persist with support at 49,700-49,800.
Resistance zone at 50,800-50,900.
Key Drivers
Profit Booking: Investors used intraday surges to book profits, reflecting caution ahead of Maharashtra Assembly elections.
Geopolitical Tensions: Reports of Ukraine`s first ATACMS missile strike on Russian border regions heightened uncertainty.
Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Activity: While the pace of outflows has eased, consistent selling remains a key overhang.
Earnings Impact: Weak Q2 earnings and stretched valuations continue to weigh on market sentiment.
Top Gainers & Losers
Gainers:
M&M: +3% (boosted by CLSA’s ‘outperform’ rating, with a target price of ?3,440).
Tech Mahindra, HDFC Bank, Trent, Eicher Motors.
Losers:
SBI Life Insurance, HDFC Life, Reliance Industries, Tata Consumer, Hindalco.
Outlook
Nifty: Bears maintain control, and "sell on rise" remains the dominant strategy unless a decisive move above 23,800 is achieved.
Sector Focus: Realty and Auto sectors are seeing renewed interest due to strong festive sales and correction-driven value buys.
Investment Strategy:
Stick to quality large-cap stocks.
Avoid rushing into mid and small caps despite their recent outperformance.
Market Closure
Markets will remain closed on November 20, 2024, for the Maharashtra Assembly elections.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice.
18 Nov
NIFTY TRADING TIPS FOR 19 NOVEMBER 2024
Market Report: November 18, 2024
Overview
The Indian equity markets extended their bearish trend for the 7th consecutive session, influenced by global and domestic factors. Weakness in key sectors like IT, Oil & Gas, and Telecom exerted downward pressure, while resilience in Banking, Metals, Auto, and FMCG helped benchmarks recover from intraday lows.
Nifty: Closed 79 points lower.
Sensex: Declined by 241 points.
Sectoral Performance
Gainers:
Metals: Outperformed with a gain of 1.80%, driven by optimism around China`s decision to reduce tax rebates on aluminum and copper.
Banking, Auto, FMCG: Showed resilience amidst market uncertainty.
Losers:
IT: Declined over 2% due to subdued investor sentiment, fueled by concerns over reduced FED rate-cut expectations impacting BFSI spending.
Telecom, Oil & Gas: Contributed to the overall weakness.
Market Technicals
Key Observations:
The market remains below its 200-day SMA, forming a bearish candle on daily charts.
Oversold conditions indicate a potential short-term pullback rally.
Key Levels:
Support: 23,350 (Sensex) / 76,950 (Nifty).
Resistance: 23,600–23,700 (Sensex) / 78,000–78,200 (Nifty).
Failure to hold 23,350/76,950 may result in further downside to 23,200–23,175/76,500–76,400.
Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs)
Declining Market Share:
PSUs now represent 15.34% of India’s total market capitalization, an 11-month low.
A decline from 17.77% in May 2024, the peak over the last seven years.
Combined PSU market capitalization: ?66.06 lakh crore in November, a sharp fall from ?81.38 lakh crore in July.
Sectoral Losses:
Significant Decliners:
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam (-57%), Cochin Shipyard (-56%), Chennai Petroleum Corp (-55%).
Several others, including Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Ind Bank Housing, declined over 50%.
PSU Q2 FY25 Earnings Highlights
Disappointing Results:
Nearly half of reporting PSUs underperformed.
14 firms posted losses, while 29 experienced YoY declines in net profit.
42 companies reported YoY declines in operating profit.
Flat Growth:
Many PSUs displayed single-digit or marginal growth in net profits and operating margins, reflecting the challenging economic landscape.
Key Challenges:
Valuation Adjustments: Peaked valuations led to profit booking.
Macroeconomic Pressures: Slower GDP growth, weak GST collections, and subdued government spending compounded market challenges.
Market Sentiment
The ongoing correction reflects alignment between fundamentals and valuations. While Q2 earnings failed to meet expectations, the correction creates opportunities for stock-pickers. However, concerns around operating and PAT margins persist despite robust order books.
Outlook
Short-Term:
A technical rebound is possible from oversold levels if the market sustains above key support zones.
Consolidation may continue due to global uncertainties like rising US bond yields and domestic earnings challenges.
Medium-Term:
Weak PSU performance and declining contributions to market capitalization signal a shift in market dynamics.
Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on sectors with strong earnings potential and lower vulnerability to macroeconomic fluctuations.
Recommendations for Traders
Watch Levels: Maintain caution around 23,350/76,950 as a critical support zone.
Stock Selection: Favor companies with robust fundamentals and resilient sectors like Metals and Banking.
Conclusion
Despite the bearish undertone, the market presents selective opportunities for investors willing to navigate through uncertainties. A combination of technical pullbacks and focused stock-picking could yield gains in the near term. However, challenges in macroeconomic indicators and sectoral performances necessitate a measured approach.
15 Nov
NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 18 NOV 2024
Key Highlights
Benchmark Indices Performance:
Sensex: Down 110.64 points (-0.14%) to close at 77,580.31.
Nifty 50: Down 26.35 points (-0.11%) to close at 23,532.70.
Weekly Decline:
Both Sensex and Nifty dropped by 2.5% for the week, marking the second consecutive week of losses.
Broader indices showed marginal relief, posting gains of 0.4%-0.8%.
Sectoral Performance:
Positive: Realty, Auto, and Media sectors edged higher.
Negative: FMCG, Pharma, PSU Bank, and Metals sectors saw declines.
Midcap Index: Down 4% this week.
Bank Nifty: Down nearly 3% this week, trading near critical support levels.
Market Insights
Support and Resistance Levels:
Nifty:
Current trading near its 200-day moving average (23,556), a crucial support level.
Possible pullback range: 23,700 – 23,750.
Downside risk: Target at 23,180, coinciding with the 61.82% Fibonacci retracement level.
Bank Nifty:
Support at 49,700 (200 DMA).
Immediate resistance: 50,560 – 50,700.
Market Sentiment:
FIIs continue to remain net sellers, though the intensity of selling has eased.
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided support.
Global factors, including a strong Dollar Index (106.61) and US 10-year bond yields (4.48%), weighed on sentiment.
Economic Indicators:
Concerns over inflation, driven by rising food prices due to prolonged monsoons.
Rupee depreciation to a historic low of 84.40/USD added pressure.
Anticipation of increased government spending post-election year to support the economy.
Q2 Earnings Impact:
Muted domestic Q2 earnings largely factored in, with consolidation observed over the past 1-2 months.
Investors are now focused on IT and banking sectors for fresh cues.
Outlook and Recommendations
Technical View:
Market remains in a downtrend; any pullbacks should be seen as opportunities to sell.
Key Levels:
Upside: Resistance at 23,700 – 23,750 for Nifty and 50,560 – 50,700 for Bank Nifty.
Downside: Nifty support at 23,180; Bank Nifty support at 49,700.
Strategic Advice:
Monitor leveraged positions closely due to volatility.
Focus on sectoral trends, particularly in realty and auto, which have shown resilience.
Exercise caution amid global uncertainties and inflationary pressures.
Key Events to Watch:
Economic data releases and RBI’s commentary on inflation.
IT and banking sector performance post-Q2 earnings.
Conclusion
Indian markets extended their losing streak into the sixth session as weak global cues, persistent FII outflows, and inflation concerns weighed on sentiment. While key indices are testing significant support levels, the overall trend remains bearish. A cautious approach is advised, with a focus on selective opportunities in resilient sectors like auto and realty.
11 Nov
NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 12 NOVEMBER 2024
Key Indices Overview
Sensex closed at 79,496.15, up by 9.83 points (+0.01%).
Nifty ended at 24,141.30, down by 6.90 points (-0.03%).
Market Summary
The Indian equity market exhibited significant volatility, with the Nifty oscillating within the 24,000-24,350 range without a clear breakout. While the RSI momentum indicator has shown a bullish crossover, there were mixed signals throughout the session, leading to a flat close.
Technical Patterns and Outlook:
An inverted hammer pattern on the daily chart suggests a possible bullish reversal. The index may test higher resistance levels at 24,500-24,550 if this pattern holds.
On the lower end, support is pegged at 24,000.
A spinning top candlestick pattern emerged, signaling indecision between bulls and bears. A decisive move is needed to break out of this range.
Sectoral Highlights
Gainers: Banking and IT sectors supported the market, ending higher by 0.6% and 1% respectively. Select banking and IT stocks provided crucial support amid choppy trading.
Lagging Sectors: Broader sectors underperformed, with Midcap and Smallcap indices declining by 0.8% and 1%, respectively. Media and Metal sectors were the primary losers, contributing to the downward pressure.
Market Breadth
Advances: 1,446 shares
Declines: 2,478 shares
Unchanged: 116 shares
The broader market sentiment was negative, reflecting overall bearishness, with more declines than advances, notably in midcap and smallcap segments.
Key Stock Movements
Top Gainers: Power Grid Corp, Trent, Infosys, HCL Tech, and Tech Mahindra
Top Losers: Asian Paints, Britannia, Apollo Hospitals, Cipla, and ONGC
Market Influences
Global Impact: Concerns over international events, especially those related to US policy, continue to influence market sentiment. The IT sector outperformed, partly due to a strong US dollar and anticipated increases in US IT spending.
Domestic Factors: Investors are awaiting CPI data, as higher food prices may compel the RBI to hold interest rates in the near term. FII actions are a major force behind current market momentum, which remains susceptible to economic and earnings announcements.
Technical Outlook and Strategy
The broader trend remains choppy with a weak bias. A potential upside bounce may occur around the lower support range of 23,800, while resistance is visible around 24,300.
The market is likely to stay volatile, and a hedged trading strategy is advised. Traders are recommended to focus on selective stock-picking, particularly in sectors with strong momentum.
Conclusion
The market remains in a high-low consolidation range, lacking a decisive direction. Continued volatility is anticipated as the earnings season wraps up.
1. IPO Overview
Swiggy`s IPO has garnered significant market attention, though investor expectations for listing gains are cautious, following a muted response to Hyundai India`s IPO. Swiggy, a prominent player in India’s online food delivery and quick commerce sectors, faces stiff competition from Zomato and potential entry threats from Jio in the hyperlocal delivery market.
IPO Issue Size: 16.01 crore shares
Total Subscription: 35% (5.55 crore shares)
Retail Investors: 83% subscription
Non-Institutional Investors (NII): 14% subscription
Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIB): 28% subscription
Grey Market Premium: Rs 4-5, or a 1% premium in the unlisted market.
2. Financial Performance and Valuation
Swiggy currently operates at a loss and may face challenges in achieving profitability in the near term due to high competition and investment requirements in the quick commerce space. Although the company has shown growth in its Average Order Value (AOV) and expanded its network of Dark Stores from 301 in FY22 to 523 in FY24, these have yet to translate into profitability on a consolidated basis.
Valuation: 8x Price to Sales at the upper price band, with a 76% discount compared to competitors.
Profitability: Long-term focus needed as profitability remains challenging due to high operational costs and competitive pressures.
3. Key Growth Drivers
Quick Commerce Expansion: Swiggy has aggressively expanded into quick commerce, broadening its service offerings and customer base.
Dark Stores Network: The growth from 301 to 523 stores has improved user engagement and operational efficiency, supporting higher order frequencies and better retention rates.
Unified App Experience: A streamlined platform integrating various services has helped drive user growth, hitting 112.73 million users by June 2024.
Focus on User Retention: High transaction frequency, personalization, and basket-size expansion have supported retention and engagement, increasing Monthly Gross Order Value (GOV) per Monthly Transacting User (MTU).
4. Challenges and Competitive Landscape
Profitability Concerns: As Swiggy continues to invest heavily in quick commerce and user engagement, it may take years to reach profitability.
Rising Competition: Swiggy faces strong competition from Zomato, which has a solid market presence, and may also face competition from Jio’s potential entry.
Market Sentiment: Despite strong growth prospects, the IPO has not shown robust initial demand in the grey market, with a low premium reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
5. Investment Recommendation
Given Swiggy’s high growth potential in India’s rapidly expanding online food delivery and quick commerce markets, the IPO presents an attractive long-term investment opportunity. However, due to the company`s current loss-making status and uncertain short-term profitability, it is suitable only for high-risk investors willing to commit for the long term.
Recommendation: SUBSCRIBE (for long-term, high-risk investors)
This report provides a balanced overview, assessing both Swiggy’s strengths in user growth and hyperlocal commerce while considering the challenges related to profitability and competition.
08 Nov
Indian Stock Market Report: November 8, 2024
Summary On November 8, 2024, the Indian stock market saw a second consecutive day of decline, primarily driven by weakness in large-cap stocks like Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, and Trent. Despite a 25-basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Thursday, investor sentiment remained cautious due to subdued Q2 earnings.
Market Indices
Nifty 50 closed at 24,148 points, down 0.21% today and down 0.64% for the week.
Sensex fell by 55.70 points, or 0.07%, ending at 79,486, marking a weekly loss of 0.30%.
Market Overview Indian markets initially showed volatility, with early trades experiencing a 700-point fluctuation. However, markets settled into a range-bound trend, pressured by selective selling in banking, telecom, metal, oil & gas, and realty stocks. While global indices saw a recovery, Indian markets continued to experience outflows from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), contributing to the negative sentiment.
The Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices bore the brunt of today’s selloff, declining by 1.42% and 1.76%, respectively.
Sectoral Performance
Sector Closing Change (%)
Realty -3.00%
Media -2.09%
PSU Bank -1.00%+
Oil & Gas -1.00%+
Energy -1.00%+
Metal -1.00%+
IT +0.71%
FMCG +0.31%
Pharma Flat
Auto Flat
Top Gainers: IT stocks benefited from renewed investor interest due to the U.S. Fed’s rate cut, with the Nifty IT index rising by 0.71%. The Nifty FMCG index also rebounded, posting a gain of 0.31%.
Top Losers: Realty and Media stocks saw continued bearish momentum, with the Nifty Realty index declining by 3% and the Nifty Media index falling 2.09%.
Nifty 50: Individual Stock Highlights
Gainers
Out of 50 stocks, 23 Nifty constituents ended in the green:
Mahindra & Mahindra led the gains with a 2.9% increase, following a strong Q2 performance that exceeded market expectations.
Other Gainers: Titan Company, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Nestle India, HUL, Power Grid, Cipla, and a few others saw gains above 1%.
Losers
27 Nifty stocks ended in the red:
Trent was the largest loser, dropping 3.2% after disappointing Q2 earnings, marking a two-day decline of 9.5%. The stock is down 24.52% since its October peak.
Other Losers: Coal India, Asian Paints, and Tata Steel declined by over 1%.
Key Market Drivers
Subdued Earnings: Q2 earnings for several companies have been below expectations, affecting investor confidence.
FII Outflows: Continued outflows from Foreign Institutional Investors are putting pressure on market liquidity and sentiment.
Global Rate Cuts: The U.S. Fed’s rate cut has sparked some interest in IT stocks, but the Indian market has largely been unaffected due to local economic concerns.
Inflation Concerns: Rising inflation expectations in India could lead the RBI to hold rates, despite the Fed’s easing stance.
Technical Outlook for Nifty 50
Support Level: 24,000 is considered a crucial support level. If this level holds, the market may recover, potentially reaching 24,500 in the near term.
Downside Risk: A breach below 24,000 could signal further downside, leading to a possible market correction.
Momentum Indicators: The RSI remains in positive crossover territory, suggesting short-term momentum may remain intact, barring any significant downside triggers.
Conclusion and Outlook
While today`s rate cut by the Fed provided some optimism for selective sectors, broader market sentiment remains cautious due to disappointing earnings and FII outflows. If the Nifty 50 holds above the 24,000 support level, there is potential for a near-term recovery. However, a fall below this threshold could prompt a further correction in the coming days.
08 Nov
Swiggy IPO Report: Key Highlights Before Subscribing
Swiggy, a leading player in India’s food and grocery delivery market, is set to launch its initial public offering (IPO). This report provides crucial insights into the IPO structure, key dates, financials, and Swiggy’s planned use of proceeds.
Swiggy IPO Details:
IPO Dates:
Open Date: November 6, 2024
Close Date: November 8, 2024
Allotment Date: November 11, 2024
Listing Date: November 12, 2024
Issue Size: ?11,327.43 crore
Fresh Equity Shares: 11.54 crore shares valued at ?4,499 crore
Offer-for-Sale (OFS): 17.51 crore shares, raising ?6,828.43 crore
Price Band: ?371 – ?390 per share
Lot Size: 38 shares per lot
Investment Structure:
Minimum Investment: For retail investors, the minimum bid involves 1 lot (38 shares), requiring a minimum investment of ?14,820.
Allocation Breakdown:
Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs): 75% of net issue
Retail Investors: 10% of net issue
Non-Institutional and High Net-Worth Investors (NIIs): 15% of net issue
Non-Institutional Minimum Lots:
Small NIIs (sNIIs): Minimum 14 lots
Big NIIs (bNIIs): Minimum 68 lots
Allotment and Refund Details:
Basis of Allotment Finalization: November 11, 2024
Shares Credited to Demat Accounts: November 12, 2024
Refund Initiation: November 12, 2024
Purpose and Utilization of Proceeds:
Swiggy plans to utilize the funds from the IPO to support growth and enhance operational efficiencies:
Debt Reduction: Partial or full prepayment of borrowings related to its subsidiary, Scootsy.
Quick Commerce Expansion: Investment in Swiggy’s quick commerce segment, especially by increasing dark stores.
Technology and Infrastructure: Enhancing cloud infrastructure and tech capabilities.
Marketing and Brand Awareness: Improving Swiggy’s market presence.
Corporate Expenses: General corporate purposes.
Company Overview:
Founded: 2012
Key Services: Food delivery, Swiggy Instamart (quick commerce), Swiggy Minis, and Swiggy Genie.
In FY24, Swiggy recorded:
Revenue: ?11,634.35 crore
Net Loss: ?2,350.24 crore
In Q1 FY25, Swiggy reported:
Revenue: ?3,310.11 crore
Net Loss: ?611 crore
Conclusion:
With this IPO, Swiggy aims to consolidate its market position, drive technological enhancements, and strengthen its quick commerce offerings. Investors may consider Swiggy`s recent financials, growth trajectory, and market strategies before subscribing to this IPO.
This concise overview covers essential information about Swiggy’s IPO, aiding investors in making informed decisions.
07 Nov
Market Report: Nifty Short-Term Trends and Key Technical Levels
Overview
The short-term trend in the Nifty index remains uncertain, with persistent volatility expected in the coming sessions. While Nifty has shown some resilience with an upside bounce over the last two sessions, the index remains constrained by crucial resistance levels.
Key Resistance and Support Levels
Resistance Level: Until the Nifty breaks above the 24,500 mark, a sustained upward trend is unlikely. This level represents a significant barrier that has remained unbreached despite recent attempts, keeping the upward momentum in check.
Support Level: On the downside, Nifty could find support around 23,800. This level is anticipated to act as a cushion against significant downward movement, potentially stabilizing prices during market dips.
Technical Indicators
Candle Pattern: A long negative candle has formed on the daily chart, which followed an upside bounce in the previous two sessions. This candle pattern suggests that, although a significant drop is not evident, some degree of consolidation or a minor correction could be anticipated, potentially bringing Nifty down to 23,800 or lower levels.
Open Interest Analysis
Open interest (OI) data provides insights into market sentiment and potential support and resistance levels:
Call Side OI: The highest call OI is observed at the 24,200 and 24,250 strike prices, indicating that these levels could act as overhead resistance.
Put Side OI: On the put side, the highest OI is at the 24,200 strike, followed by the 24,150 strike price, suggesting some level of market support at these levels.
Analyst Insights
Conclusion
In the immediate term, the Nifty is expected to trade with limited upside potential unless a decisive breakout above 24,500 occurs. Traders should monitor the support at 23,800, which could be tested during any downward correction. Meanwhile, open interest data points to specific resistance and support levels around the 24,200 and 24,150 strike prices, reflecting market sentiment and the likelihood of consolidation around these levels.
This report recommends caution for short-term traders, with a focus on observing how Nifty behaves around the 23,800–24,500 range before making significant trades.
06 Nov
Market Analysis Report: Sensex and Nifty 50 Surge Amid US Election Trends
Market Overview
The Indian stock market saw strong upward momentum today, with the Sensex and Nifty 50 indices jumping over 1% each, marking the second consecutive day of gains. This positive sentiment stemmed largely from early reports suggesting that former US President Donald Trump is leading the 2024 US presidential election race, which has influenced global market sentiment, especially in emerging markets like India.
Key Highlights
Sensex Performance: The 30-share Sensex index closed up by 902 points, or 1.13%, at 80,378.13, with 25 of its constituents finishing in the green.
Nifty 50 Performance: Nifty 50 gained 271 points, or 1.12%, to close at 24,484.05.
Market Capitalization: BSE-listed firms’ total market cap rose to nearly ?453 lakh crore, marking an increase of approximately ?8 lakh crore from the previous session.
Sectoral Indices: Gains were broad-based, led by a 4% surge in the Nifty IT index. Other sectoral indices that showed notable gains include Nifty Realty and Oil & Gas, up nearly 3% each. Consumer Durables, Auto, Media, Metal, Pharma, and PSU Banks also rose by over 1%.
Top Gainers and Laggards
Top Gainers: Tech-focused stocks led the rally, with TCS, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, and HCL Tech among the biggest gainers.
Laggards: Stocks like Titan, IndusInd Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank, and HDFC Bank finished lower.
Broader Market Trends
The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices surged 2.28% and 1.96%, respectively, with over 200 stocks hitting fresh 52-week highs, including names like Coforge, City Union Bank, Deepak Fertilisers, eClerx Services, Gillette India, Mankind Pharma, and National Aluminium Company.
Analysis of the Key Drivers
US Election Results: Trump`s strong lead in the early election results has spurred expectations of reduced political uncertainty, particularly around potential tax cuts and government spending increases under a Republican administration. His prior focus on a robust fiscal policy is viewed as a catalyst for a risk-on sentiment in global markets.
Implications for Indian IT: The Indian IT sector, a significant contributor to market indices, saw a strong rally. With improved BFSI (Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance) spending in the US, Indian IT companies anticipate increased demand. However, potential H-1B visa restrictions under a Trump-led government could challenge the sector in the near term.
India’s Advantage in Global Trade: A Republican administration is expected to take a protectionist stance, likely renewing tariffs that could revive the US-China trade war. This may benefit India under the "China-plus-one" strategy as global firms seek alternatives to China for supply chain stability, especially in sectors like pharmaceuticals.
Commodity Prices and Inflation Impact: A cooling Chinese economy could lead to a decline in commodity prices, benefiting India. However, Trump’s policies on tariffs may increase inflationary pressures in the US, possibly delaying the Federal Reserve’s plans to reduce interest rates. This factor could indirectly affect Indian markets if tighter global monetary policy continues.
Conclusion and Outlook
The Indian stock market remains poised for potential gains, driven by global market optimism surrounding the US election results. While the IT sector currently enjoys a favorable position, looming visa restrictions may temper growth prospects in the medium term. Additionally, India`s pharmaceutical and manufacturing sectors could capitalize on a rebalancing of supply chains away from China, given geopolitical dynamics under a Trump-led administration.
Overall, the impact of Trump’s policies on trade and tariffs, coupled with the “China-plus-one” approach, could provide significant opportunities for Indian businesses in sectors ranging from IT to manufacturing, real estate, and consumer durables. However, investors should keep an eye on inflationary pressures and monetary policy responses, particularly from the US Federal Reserve, as these will continue to shape market dynamics.
05 Nov
BEST OPTION CALL PUT TRADING TIPS FOR 6 NOVEMBER 2024
Key Takeaways:
Nifty 50 rose by 217 points to close at 24,213.
BSE Sensex gained 694 points, ending the day at 79,476.
Both indices experienced a late-session rally after initially falling about 0.6%.
Market Movers:
The financial sector led gains, with stocks rising nearly 2%, driven by HDFC Bank, which rose 2.6%.
Among sectors, metals outperformed with an increase of 2.8%.
Influencing Factors:
US Presidential Election Uncertainty: With a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, investors remained cautious, balancing potential market impacts.
A Trump victory is anticipated to lower corporate tax rates, possibly spurring spending and benefiting Indian equities.
A Harris victory is expected to provide policy continuity, a mildly positive signal for the Indian market.
International Sentiment: Optimism across Asian and European markets ahead of the US election lifted local trader confidence, contributing to the late-day market recovery.
Expert Analysis:
The domestic market rebound offset previous losses amid uncertainty in the Q2 GDP forecast and a highly contested US election.
Increased domestic manufacturing activity and anticipated consumer revival in H2 are expected to support market stability.
Metals were bolstered by anticipated stimulus from China.
The turnaround towards closing was driven by value buying in banking stocks, metals, and oil & gas.
Positive momentum in global indices, despite medium-term outlook uncertainty, helped stabilize sentiment.
(Stock Market Today):
The technical analysis indicated that the Nifty RSI has moderated to 68, with the index trading below its 20-week EMA yet above its 20-month EMA.
Investment Strategy:
Short-term investors should consider a ‘buy on dips’ approach.
Long-term investors could adopt a ‘sell on rise’ strategy.
Key support and resistance levels:
Support: 24,060 - 23,800
Resistance: 24,350 - 24,500
Sector Watch:
With 11 of 13 major sectors advancing, areas of focus include:
Infrastructure, Banking, IT, and PSU sectors—identified as having high potential for value investments.
Summary:
The strong finish in both Nifty 50 and Sensex underscores market resilience, supported by an optimistic global outlook and sectoral gains, particularly in financials and metals. The market is in a cautiously positive phase, influenced by international events and key economic indicators.
04 Nov
"Market Turbulence: Nifty Slips Below 24,000 Amid Global Uncertainty and Technical Weakness"
Market Recap
The Indian equity market experienced significant volatility as the benchmark Nifty50 index fell sharply, marking a turbulent beginning to the new Samvat. Key highlights from today`s session include:
Nifty50 dropped approximately 500 points intraday to a fresh four-month low, eventually closing 309 points lower at 23,990.30, down 1.29% for the day.
Sensex also declined 941.88 points (1.18%), closing at 78,782.24.
The Nifty Energy index led the sectoral losses, falling by 2.72%, while Nifty Realty and Nifty Infra also declined by 2.9% and 2.2% respectively.
India VIX, a measure of market volatility, spiked by 5.03% to 16.70, signaling increased investor anxiety.
Technical Analysis
Nifty50:
The index has experienced a breakdown from its five-day consolidation pattern, suggesting the continuation of a downtrend.
Key resistance zones are positioned at 24,200 - 24,400, while crucial support is at 23,900 - 23,800.
A breakdown below 23,500 could trigger a deeper correction towards the 23,450 - 23,400 zone.
A move above 24,100 may indicate a potential relief rally towards 24,500.
Bank Nifty:
Bank Nifty experienced a sharp decline but stayed within its 52,000 - 51,000 range.
Crucial support for Bank Nifty lies between 50,720 - 50,600, with resistance around 51,750 - 51,800.
Derivative and Sentiment Indicators
The market sentiment remains weak due to oversold technical indicators; however, any signs of stability could provide a relief rally.
The India VIX moving toward the 17 level indicates elevated volatility, warranting a cautious approach.
Global Cues and Macro Influences
The sell-off was triggered by both domestic and international concerns:
US Presidential Election: Investor anxiety is high with the US election scheduled for November 5. Potential delays in results are causing unease.
Federal Reserve Policy: A rate cut of 25 bps is anticipated in the upcoming policy announcement, but disappointing US jobs data and recent layoffs add to concerns.
Inflation and Employment Data: The October jobs report is expected to show a decrease, potentially fueling the Fed’s decision to maintain or lower interest rates. The Boeing strike and Hurricane Milton’s impact are expected to weaken job figures.
Fundamental Outlook
High market valuations and weak Q2 earnings have made the Indian market vulnerable to global sell-offs.
Anticipated volatility may persist in the near term, driven by global macroeconomic events such as policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England.
Conclusion and Strategy
With heightened volatility expected, it’s recommended to adopt a stock-specific approach while staying cautious about broad market positions. Attention to key support and resistance levels is crucial for navigating the current market:
Nifty50 Support: 23,900 - 23,800 (key short-term support) and 23,500 (crucial breakdown level).
Nifty50 Resistance: 24,200 - 24,400 with a pivotal resistance at 24,500 for potential recovery.
Bank Nifty Range: 52,500 - 50,500 with a downside bias.
Market participants should remain cautious and stay light on positions, considering the potential for further corrections or consolidation.
30 Oct
Muhurat Trading 2024: Embracing Tradition and Opportunity this Diwali
As Diwali nears, the Indian stock market gears up for its annual Muhurat trading session—a one-hour evening trading window that blends tradition with finance. This year, both the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) will hold their Muhurat trading on Friday, November 1, from 6:00 pm to 7:00 pm. Despite remaining closed during the day, this special evening session allows investors to make symbolic trades, honoring a centuries-old tradition that aligns with the Diwali themes of wealth and prosperity.
Why Muhurat Trading Matters
Muhurat trading, unique to India, represents an auspicious time for investments. Many investors view it as a chance to invite prosperity into their financial lives, often with token investments marking the start of a positive financial journey. Over the years, this session has frequently delivered positive returns, with 13 out of the past 16 years showing gains, highlighting the favorable sentiment surrounding Diwali in the markets.
Last Year`s Success and Historic Trends
In the 2023 Muhurat trading session, the BSE Sensex closed up 355 points, a 0.55% rise, while the Nifty50 gained 100 points, closing 0.52% higher. Mid- and small-cap stocks outperformed, with the BSE Midcap index rising 0.67% and the BSE Smallcap index climbing by 1.14%. Gains across the board boosted investor confidence, with market capitalization adding approximately ?2.2 lakh crore. Prominent gainers included Coal India, UPL, Infosys, and Eicher Motors, underscoring broad-based strength during the session.
Historically, Muhurat trading has yielded positive returns. For instance, the indices rose by around 1% in 2022, 0.5% in 2021, and 0.47% in 2020. While minor declines have occurred, the trend generally favors gains, with notable exceptions like the 6% jump during the global financial crisis in 2008, which marked the highest gain ever recorded on Muhurat trading day.
Strategic Insights for Samvat 2081
The year Samvat 2081 begins amid significant global economic shifts, with analysts viewing potential market dips as opportunities. According to Pranav Haridasan, MD and CEO of Axis Securities, the current environment—marked by the US Federal Reserve’s recent 50 basis points rate cut and potential further cuts—presents both challenges and opportunities. In contrast, the Reserve Bank of India’s neutral stance amid inflationary pressures adds an interesting dynamic. Haridasan emphasizes that a focus on corporate earnings and a balanced approach to stock selection will be crucial as Samvat 2081 unfolds.
Tips for Investors: Make the Most of Muhurat Trading
While the festive sentiment may inspire, experts suggest a cautious approach for Muhurat trading due to limited liquidity during the session. Beginners are encouraged to start with token investments and consult a financial advisor to ensure informed decisions. Investors looking at long-term gains should prioritize quality stocks with growth potential and reasonable valuations, setting a foundation for financial growth in the coming year.
Embracing Prosperity and Optimism
Muhurat trading represents more than just an opportunity for financial gain; it’s a celebration of optimism, prosperity, and cultural heritage. As we welcome Diwali, this tradition allows investors to symbolically begin the year on a positive note, embodying the spirit of wealth and well-being that Diwali brings to millions of households.
This year’s Muhurat trading session promises not just to carry forward a long-standing tradition but to offer meaningful opportunities amid evolving market conditions, making it an exciting time for both new and seasoned investors.
25 Oct
NIFTY TRADING TIPS & NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 28 OCT 2024
Key Market Indices Performance
Sensex: Closed at 79,402.29, down 662.87 points or 0.83%
Nifty: Closed at 24,180.80, down 218.60 points or 0.90%
Bank Nifty: Experienced a significant drop, down 744 points, closing at levels indicating further downside potential.
Market Overview
The Indian equity markets continued their downward trajectory on October 25, 2024, with the Sensex dipping below the critical 80,000 mark, reflecting a weak sentiment across various sectors. The Nifty, after a brief pause, resumed its decline, closing just above the psychological support zone of 24,000. Broader market indicators, including major sectors like metals, autos, and energy, saw significant sell-offs, declining by nearly 2%.
The market downturn is primarily driven by several key factors:
Dismal Q2 earnings: Major companies reported lackluster results, especially in the consumption sector.
Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Outflows: Continued FII selling has aggravated the pressure, possibly in response to global concerns and valuation adjustments.
Global Economic Slowdown: A sustained decrease in crude oil prices and signals of decelerating demand suggest a widespread economic slowdown, dampening sentiment further.
Technical Analysis
Nifty: Closed at 24,180, reflecting bearish momentum after testing 24,000-24,050, a crucial support region aligned with the daily lower Bollinger Band. There’s potential for a pullback to 24,350, but traders are advised to adopt a "sell on rise" approach. Key resistance lies at 24,500, with downside support at 24,000.
Bank Nifty: This index has weakened, aligning with the overall market, and is expected to test the 49,400-49,500 support level. The structure suggests a continuation of the decline, with an eye on further sectoral losses in the financial segment.
IPO Performance Outlook
Deepak Builders: Expected to debut positively with a GMP of 24.63% (approximate listing price: Rs 253). The stock’s strong 41.54x subscription and solid fundamentals indicate potential upside. However, investors should adopt a cautious approach due to broader market volatility, considering partial profit booking on listing.
Broader Market and Sectoral Outlook
Investors face a challenging landscape, influenced by:
FII outflows: Driven by a shift towards the Chinese market and concerns over Indian valuations.
Earnings Season: The disappointing results in the consumption and financial sectors reflect a slowdown, especially in urban demand.
Retail and HNI Selling: The current correction has drawn sell-offs from high-net-worth individuals (HNIs) and retail investors, who have seen valuations dip substantially for the first time in recent months.
Strategic Insights
Nifty`s 200-DMA Support: The index is expected to test its 200-day moving average at approximately 23,400. A potential rebound may occur post-October expiry, though midcap and small-cap sectors could continue to face pressure.
Investment Strategy: Investors with a long-term perspective might consider selectively adding quality large-cap stocks, especially in the financial sector where valuations are increasingly attractive.
09 Oct
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 10 OCT 2024
Market Report: Indian Equity Indices Close Marginally Lower Amid Volatility – October 10, 2024
On October 10, Indian equity indices concluded a volatile trading session with marginal declines, as concerns about inflation weighed on investor sentiment.
Key Indices Performance:
Sensex closed at 81,467.10, down by 167.71 points or 0.21%.
Nifty ended at 24,982, down 31.20 points or 0.12%.
Despite early gains, profit booking toward the close dragged the indices down. The Nifty opened higher, but it struggled to maintain momentum, closing just above the 20-day moving average (20DMA). As a result, the short-term trend remains positive, provided the index holds above 24,940. A drop below this level could lead to a further correction toward 24,800 or 24,700, while 25,100 serves as an immediate resistance level.
Key Market Highlights:
Inflation Concerns: The Reserve Bank of India`s (RBI) upward revision of Q3FY25 inflation estimates fueled worries over persistent inflationary pressures. This led to caution among investors, resulting in profit booking, particularly in FMCG stocks.
RBI`s Neutral Stance: Although the change in the RBI`s stance to neutral was anticipated, the absence of signals for a near-term rate cut added to market uncertainty.
Sectoral Performance:
FMCG was the biggest laggard, down 1.57%, followed by Energy.
On the upside, Pharma and Realty sectors were the best performers, each gaining between 1-2%.
Midcap and Smallcap Outperformance: The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices rose by over 1%, outperforming the broader market. Investors appeared to focus on stock-specific opportunities amid the market correction.
Top Nifty Gainers:
Trent
Cipla
Tata Motors
SBI
Maruti Suzuki
Top Nifty Losers:
ITC
Nestle
Reliance Industries
ONGC
HUL
Outlook: While volatility remains high, support and resistance levels are crucial for determining market direction. A breach below 24,750 could signal a bearish trend, while a breakout above 25,200 would suggest bullish momentum. Investors are advised to monitor these levels closely to assess the near-term outlook.
05 Oct
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 7 OCTOBER 2024 (NIFTY OR DOWN)
Market Report: Indian Equity Indices – October 4, 2023
Summary:
Indian equity indices faced significant selling pressure on October 4, marking the fifth consecutive session of losses. The Nifty index, which briefly dipped below the 25,000 mark during intraday trading, closed at 25,049.80, down 200.30 points (-0.79%). The Sensex followed a similar trend, closing at 81,688.45, down 808.65 points (-0.98%). The broader market exhibited profit booking, with a nearly 1% decline in both Midcap and Smallcap indices.
Market Performance:
Nifty 50: Closed at 25,049.80, down 200.30 points (-0.79%).
Sensex: Closed at 81,688.45, down 808.65 points (-0.98%).
Advance/Decline Ratio: 1,522 shares advanced, 2,266 shares declined, and 101 remained unchanged.
Sector Performance:
Top Losers: M&M, Bajaj Finance, Nestle India, BPCL, Asian Paints.
Top Gainers: Infosys, ONGC, Tata Motors, Wipro, HDFC Life.
Sectoral Indices:
Gainers: IT and PSU Bank sectors were the only sectors to show positive performance.
Losers: Realty, FMCG, Auto, Power, Media, Telecom, and Oil & Gas indices declined by 1-2%.
Market Drivers:
Geopolitical Tensions: Increasing tensions in West Asia and rising crude prices have raised concerns about inflation, dampening expectations for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the upcoming policy meeting.
Foreign Institutional Investment (FII): There has been noticeable selling by foreign investors, adding further pressure on the market.
Volatility Index: A rise in the volatility index indicated increasing market uncertainty, leading to profit booking.
Technical Analysis:
The Nifty has shed 1,310 points (-5.2%) since reaching a fresh high of 26,277 last week.
A key resistance level to watch is 25,600; the overall market bias will remain negative unless this level is reclaimed.
Outlook:
Markets are expected to consolidate in the coming week amid cautious sentiment, especially with the earnings season starting soon. Traders should pay attention to interest-sensitive stocks in light of the RBI policy meeting next week, where while a rate cut may not be on the table, the accompanying commentary will be crucial.
Recommendations:
Hedging Strategy: Given the current market volatility, adopting a hedged approach is advisable.
Focus on Resilient Sectors: Key sectors like IT, metals, and pharma have shown resilience; consider reallocating investments toward these sectors while being cautious with those under pressure.
Stock-Specific Action: Monitor individual stock performances closely as earnings results may drive specific stock movements.
Conclusion:
The Indian equity market continues to experience a corrective phase amid geopolitical concerns and profit booking. With the earnings season approaching and a pivotal RBI policy meeting on the horizon, market participants should remain vigilant and adjust their strategies accordingly.
26 Sep
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 27 SEPTEMBER 2024
Key Highlights:
Nifty closes above 26,200 for the first time, ending the session at 26,216.05, up by 211.80 points or 0.81%.
Sensex surged 666.25 points or 0.78%, closing at 85,836.12.
All major sectors rallied, with Auto, Metal, and FMCG leading gains.
Midcap index ended flat, while the Smallcap index declined by 0.4%.
Market Overview: On the monthly expiry day, Indian equity indices closed at record highs, driven by favorable global cues, rotational buying, and positive sectoral participation. Nifty showed strong momentum in the second half, closing above 26,200, marking a significant psychological milestone. Despite the broader indices showing mixed performance, key sectors, especially Auto and Metal, supported the rally.
The Sensex surged by 666.25 points to close at 85,836.12, reflecting a 0.78% gain. Nifty moved up 211.80 points to finish at 26,216.05, up by 0.81%. The broader market, however, showed signs of caution as 1,603 shares advanced and 2,200 shares declined, suggesting selective stock-picking.
Sectoral Performance:
Top Gainers:
Auto and Metal sectors gained around 2% each, showing robust buying interest.
FMCG and PSU Bank indices were up 1% each, contributing to the positive market sentiment.
Underperformers:
The Capital Goods index was the lone laggard, down by 0.6%, reflecting some profit-booking.
Broader Market:
The BSE Midcap index ended flat, indicating subdued performance in mid-cap stocks.
The Smallcap index declined by 0.4%, continuing its recent underperformance.
Top Gainers:
Maruti Suzuki
Tata Motors
Shriram Finance
Grasim Industries
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M)
Top Losers:
ONGC
Cipla
NTPC
Hero MotoCorp
Larsen & Toubro (L&T)
Technical Analysis:
Nifty Outlook:
Nifty has broken out of its consolidation phase, signaling strong bullish momentum. On the daily charts, the index formed a Marubozu Open candlestick pattern, indicating a firm grip of bulls. Nifty is now heading towards the upper end of the rising channel at 26,560, with immediate support at 25,970. The upward trend remains intact, and any move below 26,000 could indicate caution, but the overall sentiment is expected to remain positive.
Bank Nifty:
Bank Nifty broke out of its sideways consolidation range of 53,800 – 54,300 on the upside, indicating strength. The next target for Bank Nifty is around 55,000, with immediate support at 54,000 – 53,900.
Global & Domestic Cues: Global markets have been buoyed by falling bond yields in the US and stimulus measures in China, contributing to renewed optimism in equity markets worldwide. Domestically, positive sentiment and strong buying in rate-sensitive sectors such as Banking, Auto, and Realty continue to push the indices higher.
Outlook for September 27, 2024:
The current trend indicates a continuation of the bullish momentum with Nifty targeting 26,500 in the coming sessions.
Investors are advised to maintain caution, with trailing stop-losses at 26,000 to protect against sudden reversals.
Sector Watch: Focus on rate-sensitive sectors like Auto, Banking, Realty, and Financials, while selectively picking stocks in Metal and Energy sectors.
25 Sep
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 26 SEP 2024
The record-breaking run continued on Dalal Street as the Nifty Index managed to close above 26,000 for the first time, led by gains in energy, metal, and media sectors. After a volatile session, the Sensex gained 255.83 points or 0.30%, closing at 85,169.87, while the Nifty was up 63.80 points or 0.25%, finishing at 26,004.20. The day witnessed a mix of subdued movement and a sharp rally in the final hour of trading, pushing Nifty near its intraday high.
Key Highlights:
Nifty 50: Closed at 26,004.20 (+0.25%)
Sensex: Closed at 85,169.87 (+0.30%)
Market Sentiment: Range-bound for most of the session but turned positive toward the close, driven by short-covering ahead of the monthly expiry.
Sectoral Performance:
Top Performers:
Energy: Steady gains due to positive momentum in power stocks.
Metals: Strong buying seen in the sector, supporting Nifty`s rally.
Media: Led the day’s performance with significant gains.
Realty: Saw a notable uptick driven by positive sector-specific developments.
Laggards:
IT & FMCG: Both sectors underperformed, with notable selling in IT stocks like LTIMindtree and Tech Mahindra.
PSU Banks: Weakness observed due to profit-taking in some midcap and smallcap counters.
Stock Performers:
Top Gainers:
Power Grid Corp, NTPC, Axis Bank, Grasim Industries, Bajaj Finserv.
Top Losers:
LTIMindtree, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consumer, Tata Motors, Titan Company.
Midcap & Smallcap Performance:
Both Midcap and Smallcap indices experienced a minor correction, down 0.5% each. This suggests profit-booking in broader markets, putting pressure on overall market breadth.
Technical Overview:
The Nifty opened mildly in the red, consolidated with a positive bias throughout the day, and rebounded from the 25,850–25,875 support zone to close above 26,000.
The daily chart shows a bullish candle, indicating that the uptrend remains intact.
Resistance: The Nifty faces a strong resistance between 26,200–26,250, while support has shifted higher to the 25,950 level.
Bollinger Bands: Nifty is expected to continue its rally towards 26,300, where the weekly upper Bollinger band is located.
Bank Nifty Outlook:
Bank Nifty consolidated with a positive bias and witnessed subdued price action due to the upcoming monthly expiry.
The current consolidation phase is likely to break out on the upside, with a potential rally towards the 55,000 mark in the short term.
Support: The critical support level for Bank Nifty is placed at 53,800 – 53,600.
Market Breadth:
The overall market breadth remained negative, with 1,637 shares advancing against 2,148 shares declining, indicating broader market weakness due to profit-taking, especially in midcap and smallcap stocks.
Outlook:
We maintain a bullish outlook as the Nifty continues to show strong momentum, especially in metal, power, and energy stocks. Despite broader market weakness, sectoral outperformance in energy and realty, along with resilience in Nifty`s uptrend, suggests continued strength.
However, traders should remain cautious as global uncertainties and profit-booking in the broader market could lead to intermittent corrections. The ongoing correction in the IT sector may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
Key Levels:
Nifty Support: 25,950
Nifty Resistance: 26,200 – 26,250
Bank Nifty Support: 53,800 – 53,600
Bank Nifty Target: 55,000 in the short term
Investors should focus on stock selection aligned with sectoral trends, with energy and metal sectors showing strong momentum.
24 Sep
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 25 SEP 2024
Market Overview:
The Indian equity markets witnessed a mix of bullish and bearish activity in today’s volatile trading session. The session started on a muted note, with the Nifty Index correcting slightly before oscillating within a narrow range. The Information Technology (IT) sector provided significant support, helping the Index surpass the psychological barrier of 26,000. However, the gains were wiped off towards the end, with the Nifty closing just below the 26,000 mark.
The market was characterized by mixed performance across sectors, with Metals leading the gainers and Public Sector Banks (PSU Banks) emerging as the major laggards. The broader markets showed a diverging trend, with Midcaps outperforming the frontline Index, while Smallcaps ended the session in the red.
Key Market Data:
Nifty closed at 25,940.40, up by 1.40 points or 0.01%.
Sensex closed at 84,914.04, down by 14.57 points or 0.02%.
Market breadth was mixed with 1,871 shares advancing, 1,946 shares declining, and 84 shares remaining unchanged.
Technical Analysis:
A Spinning Top candlestick pattern formed at record levels, signaling indecisiveness between bulls and bears. This pattern suggests that while the market touched high levels, the fight between buyers and sellers intensified, leading to a flat close.
Resistance: A strong breakout above 26,000 will pave the way for the Nifty to reach 26,100.
Support: On the downside, the 25,800-25,850 zone will act as a crucial support area for the index.
The Nifty is still trading above its critical 21-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average), and the bullish crossover in the daily RSI indicates short-term positivity. However, to maintain the upward trajectory, a decisive break above 26,000 is essential. Otherwise, the index is likely to remain range-bound between 25,800 and 26,000 in the near term.
Sectoral Performance:
Top Gainers:
Metals: The Metal Index surged by 3%, with stocks like Tata Steel and Hindalco Industries leading the gains.
Oil & Gas: Up by 0.6%, supported by gains in major energy companies.
Power: The Power Index rose by 1.4%, with Power Grid Corp among the top contributors.
Top Losers:
PSU Banks: The PSU Banking sector was the worst performer, down by 0.5-1%.
FMCG: Marginally down as well, weighed by stocks like HUL.
Telecom: Also saw a decline of 0.5-1% during the session.
Top Gainers & Losers:
Biggest Nifty Gainers:
Tata Steel
Hindalco Industries
Power Grid Corp
Tech Mahindra
Adani Enterprises
Biggest Nifty Losers:
SBI Life Insurance
HUL (Hindustan Unilever)
Grasim Industries
UltraTech Cement
Shriram Finance
Broader Market Performance:
Midcap Index: Outperformed the frontline index, showing resilience amidst volatility.
Smallcap Index: Ended on a flat note, signaling weakness in smaller stocks compared to their midcap counterparts.
Outlook:
The short-term sentiment remains positive for Nifty, but the market appears to be taking a breather after a three-day rally. For the rally to continue, it is crucial for Nifty to break decisively above 26,000. Until that happens, expect range-bound movement within the 25,800-26,000 range.
The broader market performance also reflects a mixed sentiment, with Midcaps showing strength while Smallcaps remain under pressure. Investors should continue to monitor the 26,000 level closely for further direction, with Metals, IT, and Power sectors looking promising for the next sessions.
23 Sep
NIFTY TRADING TIPS FOR 24 SEP 2024
Overview:
Indian equity indices extended their gains for the third consecutive session, with the Nifty crossing the 25,900 mark, driven by optimism and a positive bias throughout the day. The Sensex rose by 384 points (0.45%) to close at 84,928, while the Nifty gained 148 points (0.57%), ending at a record level of 25,939.
Key Market Movements:
Nifty: The index opened with a gap-up and traded positively, rising toward the upper end of a rising channel in the 26,000-26,100 zone. While the momentum indicators on daily and hourly charts indicate caution due to divergence, the uptrend remains intact as long as there is no major price weakness. Traders are advised to use a trailing stop-loss at 25,700.
Bank Nifty: Continuing its bullish trend, Bank Nifty is approaching the 55,000 mark, with pullbacks being seen as buying opportunities. The support zone is now between 53,350-53,500 as per the principle of role reversal.
Midcaps and Smallcaps: Broader markets outperformed, with midcaps gaining 0.84% and smallcaps surging by over 1%, indicating renewed interest from market participants.
Sector Performance:
PSU Banks and Realty: These were the top-performing sectors, with the PSU Bank index rising more than 3% and the Realty index advancing by over 2%.
Other Gainers: Sectors such as auto, energy, FMCG, metal, pharma, and media all saw gains ranging from 0.5% to 1%.
IT Sector: The Information Technology sector, however, lagged, shedding 0.5% during the session.
Top Gainers:
M&M
ONGC
Bajaj Auto
SBI Life Insurance
Hero MotoCorp
Top Losers:
Eicher Motors
Divis Labs
ICICI Bank
Tech Mahindra
IndusInd Bank
Market Sentiment:
The euphoria following the recent Federal Reserve rate cut lifted domestic markets, supported by benign input costs and expectations of a shift in the RBI’s stance. Additionally, inflows from Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) added to the bullish sentiment, offsetting concerns from moderating PMI data.
Technical Outlook:
The Nifty`s psychological resistance lies at 26,000, which is expected to be a key hurdle for further upside.
On the downside, 25,800-25,850 serves as a strong support zone, suggesting that any profit-taking correction could find buyers in this range.
For Bank Nifty, the immediate support rests in the 53,350-53,500 area, with 55,000 acting as the next upside target.
Market Breadth:
Advances: 2,274 shares
Declines: 1,661 shares
Unchanged: 118 shares
Conclusion:
The Indian stock market remained in a firm uptrend, fueled by positive global cues and strong sectoral performances, particularly in PSU Banks and Realty. The market sentiment remains optimistic, though short-term caution is advised as the indices approach critical resistance levels. Investors are encouraged to maintain a trailing stop-loss to protect profits, while traders can use intraday dips as opportunities for accumulation, especially in leading sectors.
20 Sep
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY 23 SEP 2024
Key Indices Performance:
Sensex: Up 1,359.51 points (+1.63%) to close at 84,544.31
Nifty: Up 375.20 points (+1.48%) to close at 25,791
The Indian equity markets ended on a strong note on September 20, driven by global optimism and positive domestic sentiment. Nifty breached crucial resistance levels, marking a close near 25,800, while Sensex touched new heights above 84,500.
Market Overview: Nifty opened on a positive note, experiencing high volatility throughout the trading session but managing to hold key support levels. Nifty’s sharp rally in the last few hours pushed it to close near its upper range. On the daily chart, the index remains within a rising channel, with a short-term target of 26,000 in sight.
Bank Nifty also achieved a milestone, breaking past its previous all-time high of 53,350, closing the session near 53,800. The index is showing signs of strength and is now targeting the 55,000 level in the short term. Any intraday dips in Bank Nifty are expected to be buying opportunities.
Sectoral Performance: All sectoral indices ended in the green, led by strong performances from:
Auto: (+3%)
Banking and Financials: (+2-3%)
Realty: (+2%)
Metals: (+1-2%)
Capital Goods, FMCG, Healthcare: (+1-2%)
Sectors like auto and finance showed robust growth, likely benefiting from the Fed’s 50bps rate cut, which is expected to spur global liquidity and boost rate-sensitive sectors. Defensive sectors like FMCG also gained, driven by improving demand and lower input costs.
Top Gainers:
M&M
ICICI Bank
JSW Steel
Bharti Airtel
L&T
Top Losers:
Grasim Industries
SBI
IndusInd Bank
TCS
Bajaj Finance
Broader Market Performance:
BSE Midcap Index: +1%
BSE Smallcap Index: +1%
Broader indices participated in the rally, with both midcap and smallcap stocks rising by 1%. The market breadth was positive, with 2,346 stocks advancing, 1,434 declining, and 103 remaining unchanged.
Technical Overview: Nifty’s breakout above 25,550 resistance signals a strong bullish trend, with next resistance at 26,000. The short-term trend remains highly positive, with an expected consolidation or breather around 25,650. The market formed a decisive long bull candle on the daily chart, confirming the breakout from the previous range.
Immediate Support Levels: 25,500 - 25,450
Immediate Resistance Levels: 26,000, followed by 26,250 (as per Fibonacci extension).
Outlook: The market continues to ride the global wave, buoyed by accommodative monetary policies and strong economic cues. Sectors such as banking, financials, auto, and realty remain attractive for long positions. Despite intraday volatility, the overall trend appears to be positive, with more upside potential expected in the short term.
Conclusion: The Indian equity markets showed impressive strength despite volatile trading conditions, with key indices hitting new highs. Investors should continue to focus on index heavyweights and large midcaps for long positions, while keeping an eye on global cues, particularly from the US, which will continue to influence market direction.
Recommendations:
Use pullbacks in Bank Nifty and Auto sectors for accumulation.
Maintain long positions in FMCG and financial stocks, particularly in top-performing companies.
Short-term target for Nifty remains 26,000, with support at 25,500.
19 Sep
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 20 SEP 2024
The Indian equity market witnessed a volatile session on September 19, 2024, with the benchmark indices closing on a strong note. The Nifty ended the day at 25,415, up by 38 points, while the Sensex gained 236 points to settle at 83184. The rally was led by sectors such as banking, FMCG, and realty, with heavyweight stocks showing strength.
Key Market Highlights:
Nifty Performance:
The Nifty formed a Shooting Star pattern on the hourly chart, indicating a potential early sign of bearish reversal. Despite opening with a gap-up driven by positive global cues, the Nifty failed to close above the rising trendline resistance.
Support levels: 25,350 and 25,100-25,000 zone. If the Nifty breaks below these levels, further correction towards the 25,100-25,000 region is possible.
Resistance levels: 25,550-25,600 range. A convincing move above this level will indicate a bullish trend.
Sector Performance:
FMCG led the pack, with banking and realty sectors also posting strong gains.
On the downside, sectors like media, metals, telecom, PSU banks, and oil & gas experienced pressure, with some stocks shedding up to 3.5%.
The BSE Midcap index fell by 0.4%, and the Smallcap index dropped by 1%, underperforming the broader market.
Global Impact:
Indian markets reacted to the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive 50 bps rate cut announcement overnight, sparking a rally in early trades. However, profit-taking in sectors such as telecom, metals, and oil & gas reversed some of the gains.
With the Fed`s policy behind us, investor attention will now shift to the RBI’s monetary policy next month, where another rate cut may be expected to support the domestic economy.
Stock Movers:
Top Gainers: NTPC, Nestle India, Titan Company, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Tata Consumer Products were among the key stocks leading the market rally.
Top Losers: BPCL, Coal India, ONGC, Adani Ports, and Shriram Finance faced selling pressure and ended the day in the red.
Technical Outlook:
The Shooting Star candlestick pattern at record levels, coupled with potential bearish divergence in the RSI, suggests a likely consolidation or a reversal in the coming sessions. The Nifty’s consolidation range is expected to be between 25,300-25,500, and the next directional move will be determined by a break above or below this range.
Market Sentiment:
The sentiment remains cautious, with traders advised to take a balanced approach by maintaining positions on both sides. A focus on index heavyweights like banking and FMCG sectors is recommended, as these sectors are demonstrating relative strength.
Conclusion:
The Indian equity market is currently in a consolidation phase after a record high rally. Strong support is seen at the 25,100-25,200 level, and a decisive breakout or breakdown will determine the future market direction.
Market participants should monitor the upcoming RBI monetary policy for cues on further rate cuts, which could provide a boost to sectors like banking and realty. Profit booking in midcap and smallcap stocks, which are trading at premium valuations, may continue in the short term.
16 Sep
NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION TRADING TIPS FOR 17 SEP 2024
Market Overview: Indian equity indices closed marginally higher on September 16, 2024. The Nifty ended at 25,383, up by 27 points (0.11%), while the Sensex closed at 82,988, rising by 97 points (0.12%). Despite a positive opening, the broader market witnessed lackluster trading, oscillating in a narrow range throughout the session. While most sectors saw buying activity, the FMCG sector faced profit booking, and the Media index emerged as the top gainer, rallying over 1%.
Key Highlights:
Nifty Movement: The Nifty traded within the 25,350 to 25,440 range.
Sensex Movement: The Sensex traded between 82,850 to 83,100.
Sectors Performance: Media, banking, and metals posted gains, whereas FMCG and IT experienced slight declines.
Technical Outlook: The formation of a small bearish candle on daily charts indicates indecisiveness between bulls and bears. The larger market texture remains bullish, but traders should expect near-term range-bound activity.
Key Support & Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: For Nifty, key support is at 25,350 and 25,300, while Sensex support lies between 82,900-82,700.
Resistance Levels: The key resistance for Nifty is at 25,500-25,575, and for Sensex, it`s between 83,300-83,600.
Market Sentiment:
A breach below 25,300 on the Nifty and 82,700 on the Sensex could change market sentiment, triggering profit-booking and exit from long positions.
Overall market breadth leaned slightly positive, supported by selective buying in midcap and smallcap segments.
Sectoral Insights:
Gainers: Banking, financials, realty, metals, and IT sectors showed strength. The Media index led sectoral gains with a 1% rise.
Laggards: FMCG stocks faced intraday profit-booking and ended slightly in the red. IT also showed minor weakness.
Strategy for Traders:
Buy on Dips: Despite the range-bound movement, the ongoing time-wise correction is seen as healthy, and traders are advised to continue with a "buy on dips" strategy. The larger bullish structure of the market favors gradual accumulation of stocks during corrective phases.
Focus Areas: Traders should focus on sectors with relative strength, particularly banking, financials, realty, metals, and IT. Accumulating stocks showing strong relative performance in these sectors is recommended.
Outlook: With the larger trend still bullish, the market is expected to consolidate in the near term, providing opportunities for selective accumulation. Caution is advised near resistance levels, and traders should remain vigilant of any downside breach below key support levels.
13 Sep
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR TRADING 16 SEP 2024
Indian Stock Market Report – Friday 13 Sep Recap
Indian markets ended Friday’s session slightly lower as investors booked profits following Thursday’s record highs. Both key indices, Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex, touched their all-time highs during the session but struggled to hold those levels due to profit-booking and sectoral weakness.
Key Indices Performance:
Nifty 50: Closed at 25,356 points, down by 0.13%. Despite this, 20 out of 50 stocks finished in positive territory. The index recorded a weekly gain of 2.03%, marking its best performance since late June.
S&P BSE Sensex: Slipped 0.09%, closing at 82,890 points. Over the week, the Sensex rose by 2.10%, driven by strong buying interest across sectors.
Sectoral Overview:
Gainers:
Nifty Realty: Up 1.75%, leading the sectoral indices.
Nifty Media: Gained 1.74%.
Nifty PSU Bank: Rose by 1.25%.
Nifty IT: Advanced by 1%, reaching a fresh all-time high. Wipro led the index with a 3.9% rise, closing at ?550 per share. Other IT stocks such as MphasiS, Coforge, L&T Technology Services, and Persistent Systems gained between 1% and 2%.
Notably, five IT stocks – MphasiS, Coforge, Persistent Systems, HCL Technologies, and LTIMindtree – reached new 52-week highs. The Nifty IT index recorded a year-to-date gain of 22.19%, outperforming the Nifty 50’s 16.68% rise.
Decliners:
Nifty Oil & Gas, Nifty FMCG, and Nifty Energy fell by over 0.6%, weighing on market sentiment.
Mid-Cap and Small-Cap Performance:
Nifty Midcap 100: Continued its positive run, rising 0.66% to close at 60,189 points – the first time it crossed the 60,000 mark. IDBI Bank led the mid-cap index with a 7.9% increase. Oracle Financial Services Software and Bandhan Bank also saw strong gains.
Nifty Smallcap 100: Increased by 0.78%, closing at 19,505 points. In total, 69 of its constituents ended in positive territory.
Jewellery Stocks Rally:
Jewellery stocks saw sharp gains as global gold prices surged to new highs. Stocks like Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri (TBZ), Kalyan Jewellers, Senco Gold, Motisons Jewellers, PC Jeweller, and Thangamayil Jewellery rose between 4% and 20%. The sector was buoyed by several factors:
Rising gold prices: Unhedged gold inventories benefited from inventory gains.
Favourable macro conditions: A cut in customs duties and robust wedding demand have created a positive outlook for jewellery sales, with further support expected from the upcoming festive season.
Market Sentiment:
Despite domestic CPI inflation being within the RBI’s target band, rising food prices could prompt the central bank to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates. However, increased liquidity from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and a drop in US 10-year yields are boosting market sentiment, with expectations of a possible Federal Reserve rate cut further aiding the positive outlook for domestic equities.
12 Sep
Daily Market Report: Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Performance Analysis
Nifty 50 Overview:
The Nifty 50 index has recently broken out of its consolidation phase, signaling a rise in market optimism. The index continues to sustain above the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is a positive sign for near-term momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart shows a bullish crossover, further reinforcing positive sentiment.
Key Technical Indicators:
Closing Price (September 11, 2024): 24,918.45 (-0.49%)
21-Day EMA: Nifty has been trading above this level, indicating bullish momentum.
RSI: 53 (Daily), 68 (Monthly), signaling healthy momentum.
Trend: Nifty closed above its recent consolidation high, indicating strength in the current trend.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance: 25,100 – 25,145
Support: 24,735 – 24,880, with deeper support at 24,630
Upside Potential: The rally is expected to continue toward the 25,470–25,500 range.
Market Sentiment and Global Cues: Tracking global market trends, Indian benchmark indices like Sensex and Nifty are expected to open higher on Thursday. Gift Nifty indicates a positive start, trading around the 25,085 level, offering a premium of nearly 140 points from the previous close of Nifty futures.
Nifty 50 - Bearish Candlestick Pattern:
Despite the positive sentiment, the Nifty 50 formed a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which could indicate a potential downturn. Wednesday’s session saw a decline of 122.65 points, with the index closing at 24,918.45. The index found stiff resistance at the 25,100 level, witnessing selling pressure in the second half of the trading session.
Short-Term View: The trend remains range-bound to weak in the short term, with pullbacks towards 25,050 – 25,100 levels offering opportunities for traders to exit long positions. Further selling pressure is anticipated if the index dips below key support levels.
Support Levels: 24,880 – 24,750
Resistance Levels: 25,020 – 25,145
Bank Nifty Overview:
Bank Nifty continues to face selling pressure after failing to breach its 50-day moving average. The index ended Wednesday’s session 262.30 points lower at 51,010.00, or 0.51% down for the day.
Key Technical Indicators:
Closing Price (September 11, 2024): 51,010.00 (-0.51%)
50-Day Moving Average: Acts as a strong resistance for the Bank Nifty index.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance: 51,400 – 51,500
Support: 50,850 – 50,640
A close above the 51,500 level could trigger a short covering move, with an upward target of 52,000 – 52,400. On the downside, dips toward 50,850 – 50,640 can be used to initiate fresh long positions.
Open Interest (OI) Data:
Call OI (Resistance): Highest OI observed at 25,100 and 25,200 strike prices.
Put OI (Support): Highest OI observed at the 24,700 strike price.
Conclusion:
While Nifty 50 has broken out of its consolidation phase and maintained a bullish sentiment, caution is advised due to the bearish candlestick pattern that formed in Wednesday’s session. A pullback towards key support levels could provide entry points for fresh long positions, while resistance at 25,100 remains significant.
Similarly, Bank Nifty’s performance indicates resistance at 51,500, with short-term dips offering fresh opportunities for long positions. Both indices are influenced by global market trends and Gift Nifty`s performance, suggesting a positive start to Thursday’s session.
10 Sep
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW 11 SEP 2024
Overview
Indian equity markets ended on a strong note, with both Nifty and Sensex closing higher. Nifty crossed the 25,000 mark, finishing at 25,041, up 104 points (0.42%), while the Sensex gained 361 points to close at 81921.
Nifty: +104 points (0.42%) to 25,041.
Sensex: +361 points (0.44%) to 81,921.
The positive market sentiment reflects investor optimism despite global recessionary concerns, buoyed by India`s growth prospects and sliding crude oil prices.
Key Market Observations:
Nifty: Witnessed recovery from the support cluster at 24,800 – 24,850. The resistance lies in the zone of 25,100 – 25,150, where the 61.82% Fibonacci retracement level is placed. Divergent signals from daily and hourly momentum indicators suggest near-term consolidation within the range of 24,800 – 25,200.
Bank Nifty: Continued its pullback, facing resistance around 51,400 – 51,500. The support zone is located at 50,800 – 50,900.
Candle Pattern Analysis:
A small positive candle was formed on the daily chart with minor upper and lower shadows. This pattern resembles a doji, although not a classical one, indicating a cautious stance for bulls at this point. A decisive move above 25,200 could open the possibility of new all-time highs, but immediate support rests at 24,900.
Sector Performance:
Telecom and Media: Top performers, each gaining 2%.
IT, Capital Goods, Healthcare, and Power: Registered gains of 1% each.
Oil & Gas: The only sectoral index to end in the red.
Stock Movers:
Gainers: Divis Labs, LTIMindtree, Bharti Airtel, Wipro, HCL Tech.
Losers: HDFC Life, SBI Life Insurance, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, Shriram Finance.
Market Dynamics:
Volatility: The market exhibited volatility, with a knee-jerk reaction at the opening followed by a sustainable upmove during the afternoon. However, selling pressure towards the end of the session caused the market to trim its gains.
Support and Resistance: After early intraday correction, Nifty found support around 24,900/81,400, leading to a reversal and a subsequent rally. The market closed above the critical psychological mark of 25,000/81,800. Below 25,000, the index could retest the 24,900/81,500 levels. Further downside may drag it to 24,850/81,300.
Mid & Small Caps:
Midcap: BSE Midcap index rose by 0.5%.
Smallcap: BSE Smallcap index outperformed, gaining 1.5%, ending a streak of underperformance.
Technical Outlook:
Nifty: Closed just above the key resistance level of 25,100. A strong close above this level is required for confirmation of further upside towards the 25,150-25,175 zone.
Support: Immediate support is seen at 24,900. A breach could lead to a fall towards 24,850 – 24,750.
RSI: On the daily chart, RSI shows a bearish crossover, signaling weakness. The sentiment remains weak unless the Nifty decisively closes above 25,100.
Conclusion:
The market completed one leg of the pullback rally, and the 25,000/81,800 level is now crucial for traders. A sustained move above this level could see the index bounce towards 25,150/82,200. On the downside, failure to hold above these levels might lead to retests of lower support zones.
Investors should remain cautious in the near term, as market momentum is expected to stay in a consolidation phase. A break above or below the key resistance and support levels will determine the next directional move.
09 Sep
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 10 SEP
Market Overview: Indian markets rebounded on September 9, snapping a three-day losing streak. The benchmark indices closed higher, with the Nifty finishing at 24,936.40, gaining 84.20 points (0.34%), while the Sensex ended 375.61 points (0.46%) up at 81,559.54.
Despite a weak opening driven by negative global cues, the domestic market found support near its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and reversed, holding its positive momentum throughout the day. This recovery is attributed to strong performances in specific sectors, particularly FMCG, which surged by 2%, offsetting losses in Energy, Oil, and Gas sectors.
Technical Analysis:
The formation of a small bullish candle on daily charts, coupled with reversal patterns on intraday charts, suggests the pullback may continue.
Key support levels: 24,800 for Nifty and 81,000 for Sensex.
Resistance levels: Nifty may face hurdles at 25,000–25,125, and the Sensex around 81,800–82,200. A breach below 24,800 could expose the market to downside risks, prompting traders to exit long positions.
Sectoral Performance:
FMCG: The best-performing sector, rising by 2%, driven by gains in Hindustan Unilever (HUL), ITC, and Britannia.
Banking: Positive momentum from ICICI Bank and Shriram Finance helped the Bank Nifty recover from intraday lows. Bank Nifty support is at 50,500-50,350, with resistance at 51,375-51,450.
Energy, Oil & Gas: These sectors were the weakest performers, declining by over 1%.
Mid and Smallcap: Both segments underperformed, with the midcap index down by 0.3% and the smallcap index shedding 0.6%.
Top Gainers:
HUL
Shriram Finance
ICICI Bank
ITC
Britannia Industries
Top Losers:
ONGC
Tech Mahindra
Hindalco Industries
NTPC
BPCL
Market Outlook: The bullish reversal pattern and the market’s ability to hold support near the 20-day SMA indicate that the pullback could extend further, with immediate targets of 25,000-25,125 on the Nifty. The support zone remains firm between 24,800–24,750, which will act as a critical threshold for maintaining the current trend. The upcoming data on US inflation and jobless claims will play a decisive role in shaping the global market sentiment.
Summary: Today`s positive close and recovery suggest a potential continuation of the uptrend in the short term, with key sectors like FMCG and banking leading the charge. However, weakness in Energy, Oil & Gas, and global recession fears may create headwinds in the coming sessions.
Traders are advised to watch the key support and resistance levels closely, as market volatility remains high amidst global uncertainty.
24 Aug
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 26 AUG 2024
Overview:
The Indian benchmark indices ended flat in a volatile trading session on August 23. The market sentiment was cautious as investors awaited the speech of FED Chair Jerome Powell for signals on the future interest rate path.
Sensex: Up 33.02 points or 0.04% to close at 81,086.21.
Nifty: Up 11.70 points or 0.05% to close at 24,823.20.
Market Sentiment:
The market showed mixed performance due to global uncertainties, leading to oscillations around a flat trajectory.
The auto sector outperformed as it gears up for festive season demand with multiple launches.
Most sectoral indices were in the red, indicating caution among investors.
Technical Analysis:
Nifty opened flat and consolidated during the day, closing with minor gains of ~12 points.
Nifty has closed positive for the seventh consecutive trading session, signaling a stretched upmove without a significant pullback.
The hourly momentum indicator showed a negative crossover along with negative divergence, suggesting a possible intraday dip. Caution is advised for long positions.
Nifty is nearing the 78.6% retracement mark at 24,830, which could restrict further upside. The overall trend remains sideways with a consolidation range between 24,200 and 25,000.
Bank Nifty:
The Bank Nifty also experienced range-bound price action, closing marginally in the red.
The index may resume its upmove after a few days of consolidation, with an expected upside towards 51,500 – 51,900 from a short-term perspective.
Traders should maintain a stop loss at 50,400 for long positions.
Sector Performance:
Top Gainers: Bajaj Auto, Coal India, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, and Bharti Airtel.
Top Losers: Wipro, ONGC, Divis Labs, LTIMindtree, and Infosys.
BSE Midcap Index: Down 0.6%.
Smallcap Index: Ended flat.
Sectoral Performance:
Auto: Up 1%.
Metal, Realty, Media, PSU Bank, IT: Down 0.5% to 2.5%.
Outlook:
On Monday, markets are likely to react to global cues post the US Fed speech.
Traders are advised to maintain a positive outlook unless Nifty decisively breaks below 24,500.
The banking sector remains key to the next directional move, while other sectors are currently balancing each other.
Traders should avoid aggressive positions and focus on stock-specific strategies.
22 Aug
NIFTY OUTLOOK & FREE TRADING TIPS FOR 23 AUG 2024
Market Overview:
Indian benchmark indices concluded the trading session on a positive note, with the Nifty closing above 24,800. The Sensex gained 147 points, closing at 81053, while the Nifty was up by 41 points, closing at 24811.
Sector Performance:
Top Gainers:
Consumer, Metal, and PSU Banks: These sectors saw significant buying interest, driving the market upwards.
Top Performing Stocks:
Grasim Industries
Tata Consumer Products
Tata Steel
Bharti Airtel
Apollo Hospitals
Top Losers:
Selective IT and Energy Stocks: These sectors experienced intraday profit booking at higher levels, leading to marginal declines.
Underperforming Stocks:
Tata Motors
Dr Reddy`s Labs
NTPC
Wipro
M&M
Sectoral Indices Performance:
Power Index: Declined by 1%.
Pharma, Oil & Gas, Auto, IT: Ended marginally lower.
Bank, FMCG, Metal, Realty, Telecom: Gained between 0.5% and 1.4%.
BSE Midcap and Smallcap Indices: Both rose by 0.5%.
Technical Analysis:
Nifty:
The Nifty opened with a gap-up but faced intraday profit booking, leading to the formation of a small bearish candle on the daily charts, indicating indecisiveness between bulls and bears.
The index encountered resistance at the previous downside gap zone of 24,850-25,000, closing just below this range.
Immediate support is seen at 24,720, with key resistance between 24,900-24,950.
The short-term trend remains positive, but overbought conditions could lead to range-bound activity. A decisive breakout above the resistance could push the Nifty towards 25,100 in the near term.
Bank Nifty:
Bank Nifty continued its positive momentum, closing above key daily moving averages. The daily momentum indicator shows a positive crossover, signaling a potential upmove towards 51,500-51,900. A stop loss of 50,400 should be maintained for long positions.
Global Cues:
The domestic market`s modest gains were influenced by positive global sentiments. Weakness in the US non-farm payroll data has increased the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September, boosting investor sentiment.
Market Outlook:
Trading Strategy:
Given the current market conditions, a "buy on dips and sell on rallies" approach is recommended.
Traders should monitor the key support zones of 24,750-24,700 (Nifty) and 80,800-80,650 (Sensex). A breach below these levels could change market sentiment, leading to a potential exit from long positions.
Market Sentiment:
Despite the gains, the market exhibited a lackluster movement at higher levels, closing with modest gains. The narrow range movement suggests consolidation, with no significant reversal patterns emerging at the highs.
Conclusion:
The Indian equity market continues to show resilience with positive momentum. However, with the Nifty nearing critical resistance levels and showing signs of consolidation, traders should remain cautious and adopt a strategic approach to capitalize on potential market movements in the coming sessions.
21 Aug
NIFTY OUTLOOK & FREE TRADING TIPS FOR 22 AUG 2024
Overview
Indian benchmark indices ended the trading session on a positive note amidst a volatile environment. The Sensex climbed 102.44 points, or 0.13%, closing at 80,905.30, while the Nifty advanced 71.37 points, or 0.29%, to settle at 24,770.20. Despite the initial flat start, selective buying towards the final hour of trading helped push the indices to close near their day`s highs.
Market Performance
Nifty: The Nifty opened flat and traded within a narrow range for most of the session. However, a late surge in buying activity lifted the index by 71 points to close at 24,770.
Sensex: The Sensex mirrored Nifty`s movement, closing with a modest gain of 102 points.
Sectoral Indices
Gainers:
FMCG: The FMCG sector outperformed, gaining over 1.3% as investors shifted towards defensive stocks.
Pharma: Pharma stocks also saw positive movement, rising 0.91%.
Metals: The metal sector posted decent gains of around 0.5%.
Telecom & Media: Both sectors registered gains between 0.5% and 1%.
Losers:
Realty: The Realty index was the worst performer, dropping 1.31%.
Banking: The banking sector remained under pressure, dipping by 0.2%, limiting the upside for the broader market.
Top Performers
Divis Labs: Leading the pack, Divis Labs saw significant buying interest.
Titan Company: Also performed well, contributing to the day`s gains.
SBI Life Insurance, Cipla, Grasim Industries: Other notable gainers.
Lagging Stocks
Tech Mahindra: Was among the top losers.
UltraTech Cement, Tata Steel, Power Grid Corp, HDFC Bank: These stocks also saw profit-taking.
Midcap and Smallcap Performance
Midcaps: The BSE midcap index rose by 0.4%, aligning with the broader market trend.
Smallcaps: The smallcap index outperformed with a gain of nearly 1%.
Technical Analysis
Nifty Levels:
Support: Immediate support for Nifty is observed at the 24,450-24,600 zone.
Resistance: Nifty faces resistance at 24,850 and could advance to the 25,000 level. The next resistance is anticipated at 24,960, with potential movement towards 25,100 in the short term.
Momentum: A negative divergence is developing on the momentum indicator, suggesting that while the trend remains positive, the upward movement might slow down with possible intraday pullbacks.
Bank Nifty:
Support: The Bank Nifty found crucial support at the 50,350-50,300 zone.
Upside Target: As long as this support holds, the index could rally towards the 51,000-51,500 levels. A stop loss of 50,300 is recommended for long positions.
Global Cues
Global markets maintained a cautious stance ahead of the FOMC minutes release. The expectation of a potential rate cut in the US remains high, driven by declining inflation and moderated economic growth. This global sentiment is likely to influence Indian markets, making it essential for participants to monitor developments in the US closely.
Conclusion
The Indian market continues its gradual ascent, supported by sectoral rotation and strong domestic institutional investor (DII) flows. While defensive sectors like FMCG and pharma lead the rally, caution prevails due to profit-taking in banking stocks. The Nifty is poised to challenge higher resistance levels, with a short-term target of 25,000+ on the horizon. However, traders should be prepared for potential pullbacks and closely watch key support levels.
This report provides a comprehensive outlook on the market trends, sectoral performances, and technical insights, helping participants make informed decisions.
12 Aug
NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION TRADING TIPS FOR 13 AUG 2024
Overview: Indian benchmark indices ended on a flat note in a highly volatile session on August 12. The Sensex closed down by 56 points, or 0.07%, at 79648, while the Nifty ended 20 points lower, at 24347. This session was marked by mixed signals and fluctuations in both directions, ultimately leaving the indices relatively unchanged.
Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment remained sideways to weak, with Nifty closing below the critical 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated weak momentum with a bearish crossover, suggesting that the market might continue to be a sell-on-rise scenario as long as it remains below the 24,500 level. On the downside, support is positioned at 24,150.
Sectoral Performance:
Gainers: The Realty sector led the gains, rising over 1.35%, followed by the Metal sector. The broader indices, including mid and small caps, outperformed the benchmark indices, closing slightly in the green.
Losers: The Media index was the major laggard, shedding nearly 2%. The FMCG, Power, PSU Bank, and Media sectors were down by 0.5-2%, while sectors like Bank, Telecom, IT, Oil & Gas, Metal, and Realty saw gains between 0.3-1%.
Technical Analysis:
Nifty faced resistance at the short-term 20-day EMA at 24,400, struggling to sustain its position above this level. This resistance, coupled with pressure from select heavyweight stocks, indicates that the market may remain under pressure until there is a decisive movement in banking majors.
The formation of a long-legged Doji candlestick pattern after testing the higher end of a consolidation range suggests indecision among traders. A firm close above the 24,450-24,470 zone is essential to resume the uptrend, while support seems firm at 24,200.
For day traders, the market`s current texture is non-directional, making level-based trading the ideal strategy. The immediate breakout zone for bulls is at 24,400/79,850. A move above this level could lead to further gains up to 24,500-24,550/80,100-80,400. On the flip side, a drop below 24,300/79,500 could change the sentiment, potentially leading the market to retest 24,200-24,170/79,200-79,000 levels.
Key Influencers:
The ongoing Adani-Hindenburg-SEBI saga created an overhang on the market, with early trades reflecting the impact of these allegations. However, indices managed to recover during the day, only to lose ground again due to selective profit-taking.
Global cues will play a crucial role in the market`s direction, alongside domestic factors such as anticipated ease in CPI inflation supported by a good monsoon. However, upside risks remain due to firm oil prices and volatility in food inflation.
Conclusion: The Indian market closed the day largely flat after a session filled with volatility and mixed signals. While certain sectors like Realty and Metal provided some support, pressure from other sectors, combined with external factors like the Adani-Hindenburg-SEBI saga, kept the indices from gaining significant ground. Traders are advised to adopt a cautious approach, with a focus on hedging and level-based trading strategies in the near term.
08 Aug
NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION TRADING TIPS FOR 9 AUG 2024
On August 8, 2024, the Indian stock markets experienced a highly volatile session, with both the Sensex and Nifty ending in the red. The Nifty50 fell below the critical 24,150 level, closing at 24,117, down 180 points or 0.74%. The Sensex also mirrored this trend, closing 581.79 points lower at 78,886.22, a decline of 0.73%.
Market Performance
Sensex: 78,886.22 (-581.79 points, -0.73%)
Nifty50: 24,117 (-180.50 points, -0.74%)
BSE Midcap Index: -0.4%
BSE Smallcap Index: Flat
Sectoral Analysis
The market was primarily dragged down by weak performances in key sectors like IT, metals, and energy. Conversely, the pharmaceutical sector showed resilience, ending as the best performer of the day.
Top Performers:
Pharma: Demonstrated the best performance amidst a largely negative market, benefiting from defensive positioning by investors.
Healthcare & Media: Managed to close in positive territory, though gains were marginal.
Underperformers:
Information Technology (IT): Suffered significant losses, with heavyweights like Infosys contributing to the decline.
Metals: Faced selling pressure due to global demand concerns.
Oil & Gas: Declined by 1-2%, largely due to concerns over global energy demand.
Realty: Followed the broader market`s downward trajectory.
Key Movers
Losers:
LTIMindtree: Among the top losers in the Nifty due to the overall weakness in the IT sector.
Grasim Industries, Asian Paints, Power Grid Corp, Infosys: These companies also faced significant selling pressure.
Gainers:
HDFC Life, Tata Motors, SBI Life Insurance: Managed to post gains amidst the market downturn.
HDFC Bank, Cipla: Provided some support to the indices with positive performances.
Market Sentiment and Key Drivers
Global Cues:
Weak global markets contributed to the negative sentiment on Dalal Street. Concerns over a potential U.S. economic slowdown and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates sooner than expected led to caution among investors.
RBI Policy Decision:
The Reserve Bank of India`s decision to maintain its current policy stance, coupled with an upward revision in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a more cautious growth forecast for Q1, weighed heavily on the market.
Technical Analysis:
Resistance and Support Levels:
Resistance: Nifty is facing resistance around the 24,350 level. A breach of this level is necessary to instill confidence among the bulls.
Support: The downside seems protected near the 23,965 level, close to the 50-day moving average (50DMA). A decisive break below 23,900 could lead to a further decline.
Market Oscillation: The index is oscillating in a wide range, with a breakout on either side likely to determine the market`s direction in the near term.
Global Concerns:
Investors remained cautious due to ongoing global uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. economic data and its implications for global markets. The anticipation of a potential recession in the U.S. has added to the market`s volatility.
Conclusion and Outlook
The Indian markets closed on a weaker note on August 8, reflecting the broader global market sentiment and domestic macroeconomic concerns. The Nifty’s inability to sustain gains from the previous session highlights the fragility of the current market environment.
Given the ongoing volatility, traders and investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach. Hedging strategies could be particularly beneficial in navigating the uncertain market conditions. The key levels to watch in the coming sessions will be the support at 23,965 and the resistance at 24,350. A breakout from this range could provide a clearer direction for the market`s next move.
Recommendations
Traders: Consider adopting a hedged strategy, focusing on managing risks amidst the volatile environment. Watch for a breakout of the 23,965–24,350 range for directional trades.
Investors: Defensive sectors like pharma may provide some stability in portfolios. It may be prudent to avoid heavy exposure to IT and metals until there is greater clarity on global economic conditions.
Market Participants: Stay updated on global developments, particularly U.S. economic data, as these could significantly impact market sentiment in the short term.
07 Aug
NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 8 AUG 2024
Overview
On August 7, 2024, Indian benchmark indices ended on a strong note, with the Nifty closing at 24,297.50, up 305 points or 1.27%, and the Sensex finishing at 79,468.01, up 874.94 points or 1.11%. This rally came ahead of the anticipated RBI policy outcome, with all sectoral indices closing in the green. The broader market outperformed, with both the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices rising more than 2%.
Market Performance
Nifty 50: Up 305 points or 1.27% at 24,297.50
Sensex: Up 874.94 points or 1.11% at 79,468.01
Market Breadth:
Advancers: 2,696
Decliners: 698
Unchanged: 72
Sectoral Performance
All sectors ended in the green, with significant contributions from:
Metals: Top performer
Pharma
Oil & Gas
Healthcare
Media
Power
Telecom
Capital Goods
Key Gainers and Losers
Top Gainers:
Coal India
Adani Ports
Power Grid Corp
Cipla
Wipro
Top Losers:
IndusInd Bank
Eicher Motors
Britannia
Tech Mahindra
Titan Company
Broader Market Performance
BSE Midcap Index: Up over 2%
BSE Smallcap Index: Up over 2%
Technical Analysis
Nifty witnessed a good recovery after three days of decline, trading positively throughout the session and closing above the 40-day average of 24,138. Key observations include:
Candlestick Pattern: The formation of a long-legged DOJI pattern, indicating indecisiveness.
Support Levels: Immediate support at 23,960.
Resistance Levels: Immediate hurdles at 24,520 – 24,550; a decisive close above 24,500 needed for sustained rebound.
Volatility: India VIX has cooled off, indicating a decrease in market volatility.
Bank Nifty
Performance: Witnessed a late surge, closing well above intraday lows.
Support Levels: Crucial support zone at 49,800 – 49,700.
Resistance Levels: Potential for pullback to 50,600 – 50,800.
Global Influences
Global factors and headwinds persist, which could continue impacting Indian markets in the coming days. Key global influences include:
Bank of Japan: Deputy Governor`s reassurance of not raising interest rates during financial instability led to a rebound in global markets.
Middle East Tensions: Risk-off sentiment due to rising tensions could lead to intra-day volatility.
Market Outlook
While the market experienced a relief rally today, ongoing global uncertainties suggest potential for further volatility. The RBI policy outcome, expected on Thursday, will be crucial, with the committee likely to maintain the current interest rate. Interest-sensitive sectors and stocks will be in focus.
Conclusion
The Indian stock market showed strong resilience and recovery on August 7, driven by positive global cues and broad-based buying across sectors. Despite the rally, market participants should maintain a cautious outlook due to potential volatility and global uncertainties. The Nifty`s ability to sustain above the key resistance levels will be critical for a continued upward trajectory.
06 Aug
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 7 AUG 2024
Market Summary
Nifty50: Closed at 23,992.55, down by 63.05 points or 0.26%.
Sensex: Closed at 78,633.56, down by 125.84 points or 0.16%.
Key Observations
The market opened strongly, reaching higher levels but failed to hold onto the gains.
Selling pressure intensified in the second half, leading to the Nifty50 ending the session in the red.
A mixed trend was observed across various sectors:
Top Gainers: Realty and IT.
Top Losers: PSU Banks, followed by Auto.
Broader markets underperformed the frontline indices with:
Midcaps: Down by 0.61%.
Smallcaps: Down by 0.39%.
Sector Performance
Auto, Bank, Oil & Gas: Down by 0.5% each.
IT, Metal, Realty: Up by 0.3-0.8%.
Notable Stocks
Top Nifty Losers: HDFC Life, SBI Life Insurance, Shriram Finance, BPCL, SBI.
Top Nifty Gainers: Britannia Industries, JSW Steel, HUL, L&T, Tech Mahindra.
Market Outlook
Near-term Outlook for Nifty50: Bearish unless there is a convincing move above 24,400.
Immediate Support: 23,880 (50DMA support).
Conclusion
Indian benchmark indices experienced a highly volatile session, closing marginally lower. The broader market weakness and the mixed trend across sectors indicate caution among investors. The near-term outlook for Nifty50 remains bearish unless it can break above the 24,400 level convincingly, with immediate support at 23,880.
05 Aug
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 2024
Overview
On August 5, Indian benchmark indices experienced a significant decline due to a combination of global economic concerns and geopolitical tensions. The Nifty index closed at 24,055.60, down 662.10 points or 2.68%, and the Sensex closed at 78,759.40, down 2,222.55 points or 2.74%. The market was heavily impacted by global cues, leading to a massive sell-off across various sectors.
Key Indices Performance
Sensex: 78,759.40 (-2,222.55 points, -2.74%)
Nifty: 24,055.60 (-662.10 points, -2.68%)
Sectoral Indices Performance
All sectoral indices ended in the red, with the most significant declines observed in the auto, metal, capital goods, oil & gas, power, media, and realty sectors, each down by 4%.
Market Breadth
Advances: 471 shares
Declines: 3,082 shares
Unchanged: 88 shares
Major Losers
Tata Motors
Adani Ports
ONGC
Hindalco
Tata Steel
Major Gainers
HUL
Nestle
Tata Consumer
HDFC Life
Broader Indices Performance
BSE Midcap Index: -3.6%
BSE Smallcap Index: -4.2%
Analysis
Domestic and Global Influences
The sharp decline in the Indian markets was primarily driven by several global factors:
Recession Fears in the US: Weak jobs data from the US raised concerns about a potential recession.
Interest Rate Hike in Japan: The increase in interest rates led to a significant impact on the Yen-carry trade.
Middle East Conflict: Escalating tensions in the Middle East added to the global uncertainty.
These factors contributed to a massive sell-off, with investors trimming their trading positions and adopting a cautious approach.
Technical Analysis
Nifty: Closed below the crucial level of 24,075, violating the uptrend. The index also closed below the 20-day moving average of 24,575, indicating weakness.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Key levels to watch are 23,628 and 23,280 (20-week moving average).
Immediate Resistance Levels: 24,300 – 24,350.
Support Levels: Key support at 23,800 and further support expected at 23,250 – 23,400 zone.
Bank Nifty
Performance: Closed below the previous swing low of 50,440, suggesting a continuation of the fall.
Support Levels: Likely to drift lower towards 47,650 – 47,500 (200-day moving average).
Resistance Levels: 50,400 – 50,500.
Recommendations
For Traders
Trim Trading Positions: Due to the high volatility and global uncertainties.
Strict Stop Losses: Essential for both long and short positions.
Option Writers: Exercise caution due to the increased market volatility.
Hedged Approach: Prefer a hedged trading strategy to mitigate risks.
For Investors
Long-Term Perspective: View the current correction as an opportunity to accumulate quality stocks.
Phase-Wise Allocation: Consider allocating funds in a phase-wise manner over a 2/3-year horizon.
Conclusion
The Indian markets are experiencing significant volatility due to global economic and geopolitical factors. While the immediate outlook remains cautious, historical trends suggest resilience and potential for recovery in the long term. Traders should adopt a cautious and hedged approach, while investors may look for opportunities to accumulate quality stocks during this correction.
02 Aug
NIFTY WEEKLY REPORT & OUTLOOK FOR 5 AUG 2024
Overview
The Indian benchmark indices ended their five-day winning streak with a significant decline. The Nifty index closed below the crucial 24,750 mark, driven by a global sell-off and lack of new upward triggers.
Key Indices Performance
BSE Sensex: Down 885.60 points (1.08%) to close at 80,981.95
NSE Nifty: Down 293.20 points (1.17%) to close at 24,717.70
Market Analysis
The market experienced a sharp decline, with the Nifty forming a spinning top pattern on the daily timeframe. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator showed a downward trend, suggesting a bearish crossover. The market sentiment appears to favor "sell on rise" traders as long as the Nifty remains below 24,800.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Nifty Support: 24,530 and 24,400
Nifty Resistance: 24,820 to 24,850
Bank Nifty Performance:
Consolidated around the 40-day moving average (51,318), with less intensity in the fall compared to Nifty.
Bank Nifty Support and Resistance Levels: 52,550 to 50,440
Sectoral Performance
Outperformers: BSE Power, BSE Healthcare, BSE Oil & Gas, and BSE Power
Underperformers: BSE Realty, BSE Auto, BSE IT, and BSE FMCG
Market Breadth
Advances: 1426 shares
Declines: 1960 shares
Unchanged: 83 shares
Key Gainers and Losers
Top Nifty Gainers: Divis Labs, HDFC Bank, Dr Reddy`s Labs, Sun Pharma, Kotak Mahindra Bank
Top Nifty Losers: Eicher Motors, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, Hindalco Industries, JSW Steel
Midcap and Smallcap Performance
BSE Midcap Index: Down 1%
BSE Smallcap Index: Down 0.5%
Domestic and Global Factors
Domestic Data: India Manufacturing PMI at 58.1, GST collection growth of 10%
Global Influences:
US Fed kept rates unchanged with a hint at a potential rate cut in September.
Bank of England announced a 25 basis points rate cut.
Weak earnings from the US IT sector.
Concerns over a rise in US unemployment and potential further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
Slowdown in China’s growth.
Future Outlook
Nifty: Expected to retrace towards 24,600 to 24,550, with support from the 20-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Bank Nifty: Likely to remain range-bound, with crucial levels to watch between 52,550 and 50,440.
The recent broad-based sell-off indicates market exhaustion and lack of new triggers for further upward movement. Investors will closely monitor Q1FY25 earnings and global equity market trends in the coming weeks.
01 Aug
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 2 AUG 2024
Overview: Indian benchmark indices extended their winning streak for the fifth consecutive session on August 1, 2024. The Sensex closed up by 126.21 points (0.15%) at 81,867.55, while the Nifty increased by 59.70 points (0.24%) to close at 25,010.90. This marks the first time the Nifty has closed above the 25,000 level.
Market Movement:
The Nifty remained range-bound throughout the day, reflecting a cautious sentiment among traders. However, the index closed above the key psychological level of 25,000, supported by strong corporate earnings and positive global cues, particularly from the US markets.
The Sensex also reached new highs, nearing the 82,000 mark, driven by gains in select sectors such as metals, oil & gas, and power.
Technical Analysis:
The Nifty’s close above 25,000 signifies a continuation of the upward trend, breaking out of a recent sideways consolidation phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a bullish crossover, although it is approaching the overbought zone, suggesting a potential for profit booking.
Immediate support for the Nifty is at 24,900, with resistance levels at 25,100 and 25,250. The index has formed a Spinning Top candlestick pattern, which often indicates indecision in the market.
Sectoral Performance:
Gainers: Energy, metals, oil & gas, and power sectors were among the top performers. Stocks like Coal India, Power Grid Corp, Shriram Finance, Dr. Reddy`s Labs, and ONGC led the gains in the Nifty index.
Losers: The auto, capital goods, IT, media, telecom, PSU Bank, and realty sectors experienced declines, with stocks such as M&M, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv, and SBI being the major laggards.
The BSE midcap and smallcap indices shed nearly 1% each, indicating a divergence in performance between large-cap and smaller-cap stocks.
Global and Domestic Factors:
Positive cues from the US markets, influenced by indications from the Fed Chair about a possible rate cut in September, contributed to the positive sentiment in Indian markets. However, weak European market performance and mixed results from Asian indices limited the upside.
Domestically, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices added to the market`s cautious tone. This was further exacerbated by profit-taking in broader markets and underperformance in key sectors like banking.
Outlook:
The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with traders encouraged by global market buoyancy and strong corporate earnings. However, the underperformance of banking stocks and profit-taking in broader indices pose challenges to sustaining the rally.
The Nifty needs fresh triggers to break past its immediate resistance at 25,100. The approach remains to "buy on dips," with a focus on careful stock selection to navigate the current market dynamics.
31 Jul
Daily Market Report - July 31
Market Overview
Indian benchmark indices continued their positive trend for the fourth consecutive session. The Nifty closed at 24,951.20, up by 93.90 points or 0.38%, while the Sensex ended the day at 81,741.34, gaining 285.94 points or 0.35%. The market maintained a positive bias throughout the day, closing near the session`s high.
Technical Analysis
Nifty:
A small positive candle formed on the daily chart with a minor upper shadow, indicating an attempt at an upside breakout around the 25,000 mark.
The pattern of higher tops and bottoms continues, with no immediate signs of a reversal. A decisive move above 25,100 could lead to a sharp upside, with immediate support at 24,750 levels.
On the hourly chart, the Nifty has given a consolidation breakout, and the RSI indicates a bullish crossover on both the hourly and daily timeframes. A fresh leg of bullishness is expected above 25,000, with support at 24,900. A break below this level could see a correction towards 24,750.
Bank Nifty:
The index remained range-bound, especially ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on the rate decision. It stayed below the 21 EMA, with the daily RSI showing a bullish crossover.
A sustained trade above 51,600 might trigger a rally towards 52,000-52,200, while support is placed at 51,200-51,000.
Sector Performance
Top Performers:
Metals, Pharma, and Media: These sectors saw the highest gains, with each adding approximately 1%.
BSE Midcap Index: Added nearly 1%, showing strong performance.
Underperformers:
PSU Banking Sector: Ended the session with a loss of 0.43%.
Smallcap Index: Ended marginally lower.
Top Gainers & Losers
Top Gainers:
NTPC
Asian Paints
BPCL
JSW Steel
Tata Motors
Top Losers:
Britannia Industries
Dr Reddy`s Labs
Tata Consumer
Reliance Industries
Grasim Industries
Market Breadth
Advances: 1,828 shares
Declines: 1,613 shares
Unchanged: 78 shares
Outlook
The Nifty is approaching the psychological barrier of 25,000. A sustained move above this level could push the index further towards 25,200, while on the downside, immediate support is seen at 24,800.
Bank Nifty`s movement will likely be influenced by external factors, including the Federal Reserve`s rate decision. A break above 51,600 could trigger a rally, with support at 51,000.
30 Jul
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 31 JULY 2024
Market Overview
The domestic market ended relatively flat, largely due to profit-booking at higher levels. Despite the cautious sentiment, optimism was bolstered by expectations of dovish comments from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) in their upcoming policy meetings this week. Additionally, investors are keenly observing the BoE and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), anticipating contrasting policy moves. The BoE is expected to consider lowering rates in response to rising unemployment and easing inflation, whereas the BoJ may increase rates due to surging inflation, potentially introducing market volatility.
Index Performance
The indices experienced a mixed session:
Nifty50: After a muted opening, the Nifty50 surged higher, led by the Energy and Auto sectors. However, the gains were pared towards the session`s end, with the index settling at 24,857.30, up 21.20 points or 0.09%. The formation of a DOJI candlestick pattern suggests indecisiveness between the bulls and bears. The index faces a strong psychological resistance at 25,000, with immediate support at 24,800 and 24,660.
Sensex: The Sensex closed marginally higher, gaining 99.56 points or 0.12%, ending at 81,455.40.
Broader Markets: The broader markets continued their outperformance streak:
BSE Midcap Index: Rose by 0.3%.
BSE Smallcap Index: Advanced by 0.9%.
Sectoral Performance
Except for the FMCG and Healthcare sectors, all other sectoral indices ended in the green:
Top Gainers: Power, Realty, and Auto sectors led the gains, up between 0.5%-1%.
Sectoral Losers: FMCG and Healthcare sectors underperformed.
Top Gainers and Losers
Top Nifty Gainers:
BPCL
NTPC
Tata Motors
Power Grid Corp
Asian Paints
Top Nifty Losers:
Cipla
LTIMindtree
SBI Life Insurance
Grasim Industries
Sun Pharma
Market Sentiment
The market sentiment remains cautious but optimistic, influenced by global cues and expectations of policy announcements. The mixed performance across sectors indicates a careful positioning by investors, balancing between potential gains and risk aversion.
Outlook
The market`s near-term direction will likely be influenced by the upcoming policy decisions from major central banks. Investors are advised to closely monitor global economic indicators and central bank comments for cues on market direction. The psychological resistance at 25,000 for the Nifty50 remains a crucial level to watch, with significant support at 24,800 and 24,660.
27 Jul
STOCK MARKET TRADING TIPS FOR 29 JULY 2024
Market Summary Report - July 26, 2024
Key Highlights
Sensex and Nifty 50 Performance:
Sensex jumped 1,292.92 points (1.62%) to settle at 81,332.72.
Nifty surged 428.75 points (1.76%) to close at an all-time high of 24,834.85.
Both indices snapped a five-day losing streak.
Market Drivers
Heavy Value-Buying:
The rebound was driven by value-buying at lower levels.
Blue-chip stocks like Infosys, Bharti Airtel, and Reliance Industries led the recovery.
Positive Global Cues:
Better-than-expected US GDP growth bolstered global demand outlook.
US CPI data showed moderate inflation, fueling hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Sector Performance
Broad Market Rally:
BSE midcap gauge rose 2.12%, and the smallcap index rallied 1%.
Gains observed across sectors, with Metals and IT leading.
Midcaps outperformed broader indices.
Investor Sentiment
Market Capitalisation:
Investors` wealth soared by ?7.10 lakh crore.
Market cap of BSE-listed firms hit an all-time high of ?4,56,92,671.33 crore ($5.46 trillion).
Buy on Dip Strategy:
Investors refocused on quarterly earnings and stock-specific trends.
Technical Analysis
Nifty 50:
Experienced a downward consolidation breakout on the daily chart.
Closed above the 21 EMA, signaling a bullish trend.
Potential rise towards 25,250 if sustained above 24,500.
Bank Nifty:
Recovered 857 points from the day`s low to close at 51,295.95.
An outside day pattern suggests a possible price expansion.
Reclaimed the 50-period EMA, indicating a short-term bullish reversal.
Resistance at 51,500 could lead to a rally towards 52,500; support at 51,000.
Global Market Context
US Markets:
Dow Jones up nearly 2% at 40,694.
S&P 500 rallied 1.43% to 5,476; Nasdaq Composite up 1.22% at 17,392.
Positive economic data with US GDP exceeding expectations.
GIFT Nifty:
Traded flat at 24,944 after a bullish run in Indian markets.
Conclusion
The domestic equity markets showed a strong recovery, driven by strategic buying and positive global economic signals. Technical indicators suggest a continuation of the bullish trend, with potential upside in both Nifty and Bank Nifty indices. Investors are encouraged by the overall economic data and market dynamics, pointing towards a positive outlook in the near term.
25 Jul
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 26 JUL 2024
Overview
Indian benchmark indices exhibited a volatile trading session, ultimately closing nearly flat on July 25, 2024. The Sensex dipped by 109.08 points, or 0.14%, to settle at 80,039.80, while the Nifty decreased by 7.40 points, or 0.03%, closing at 24,406.10.
Market Performance
Opening: The session started with a notable gap-down, driven by weak global cues and selling pressure in major banking stocks.
Recovery: A recovery in select heavyweight stocks helped minimize losses, enabling the indices to close near the flat line.
Sector Performance:
Gainers: The energy, auto, and pharma sectors performed well amidst the choppy market conditions.
Losers: The metal and banking sectors faced significant downward pressure.
Sectoral Highlights
Top Gainers:
Tata Motors
ONGC
SBI Life Insurance
BPCL
Sun Pharma
Top Losers:
Axis Bank
Nestle India
Titan Company
ICICI Bank
Tata Steel
On the sectoral front:
Gainers: Auto, capital goods, power, oil & gas, healthcare, and media sectors rose by 0.5-3%.
Losers: Bank, IT, metal, realty, and telecom sectors declined by 0.5-1%.
Broader Market
The BSE midcap and smallcap indices ended marginally lower, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Market Insights
Support and Resistance Levels: The Nifty demonstrated resilience, with strong support at the 24,200 level. This support level is crucial for maintaining the uptrend. Conversely, the level of 24,560 is seen as an immediate hurdle.
Global Influence: An overnight slump in US equities led to profit-taking in domestic markets, particularly in banking, IT, metals, and realty stocks. However, buying in oil & gas and automobile stocks towards the end of the session helped recover most losses.
Valuation Concerns: Despite stretched valuations in the Indian markets, there remains enthusiasm among retail investors, particularly in the broader market. This enthusiasm is likely to prompt a shift towards large-cap stocks.
Outlook
The market is currently in a consolidation phase, showing significant resilience. Investors are advised to seek buying opportunities on dips, with a focus on stock selection. The performance of global indices, especially in the US, will be closely monitored for further cues.
Summary
Overall, the market`s ability to recover from initial losses and close near the flat line underscores the underlying strength in select sectors and stocks. The focus remains on navigating through global uncertainties and domestic sectoral performances.
This report encapsulates the market dynamics of July 25, 2024, providing a comprehensive overview of the day`s trading activity, sectoral performance, and key insights for investors.
24 Jul
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 25 JUL 2024
Overall Market Performance: On July 24, 2024, Indian benchmark indices ended lower for the fourth consecutive session. The Sensex dropped by 280 points, closing at 80,148. The Nifty declined by 65 points, or 0.27%, settling at 24,413. The market displayed volatility, with Nifty forming a small negative candle on the daily chart, indicating a high wave type candle pattern after a recent decline from new highs.
Technical Analysis:
The Nifty failed to hold the 10-day EMA and is currently testing the support at the 20-day EMA around 24,270 levels. A breakdown below this level could signal further weakness, potentially bringing the index to 24,100 or lower.
A bullish hammer and high wave pattern formed over the last two sessions suggest a potential halt in the downward trend. A decisive move above 24,580 could indicate a near-term bottom reversal.
The daily momentum indicator shows a sell signal, suggesting selling on rises around the resistance zone of 24,500 – 24,550. The short-term trend remains weak, with potential downside targets between 24,200 and 24,000.
Sectoral Performance:
Gainers: Sectors like healthcare, oil & gas, media, telecom, and power showed gains between 1-2%. The broader indices outperformed, with the BSE Midcap index rising 0.7% and the Smallcap index gaining 2%.
Losers: The FMCG and banking sectors declined by 0.5-1%. Notable underperformers in the Nifty were Bajaj Finserv, Britannia Industries, Bajaj Finance, Tata Consumer, and Axis Bank.
Market Breadth: The market breadth was positive, with 2,474 shares advancing, 927 shares declining, and 85 shares remaining unchanged.
Key Takeaways:
The market continues to experience consolidation and volatility. Despite recent declines, the broader market segments, particularly mid and small caps, showed resilience.
Key support for Nifty lies at 24,200, with immediate resistance at 24,560. A decisive break below 24,200 could trigger further selling pressure, while a move above 24,580 could signal a trend reversal.
Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance and focus on index majors. Monitoring position sizes and sector-specific performance, particularly in the context of banking and FMCG, is recommended.
Outlook: The short-term outlook for Nifty remains bearish unless it sustains above the key resistance levels. The formation of bullish patterns suggests the potential for a temporary halt in the downtrend. Traders should consider selling on rises and buying on dips within the defined support and resistance zones.
18 Jul
NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION TRADING TIPS FOR 19 JUL 2024
It seems you`ve provided a comprehensive update on the Indian equity markets for July 18. Here`s a structured report based on the information:
Market Summary - July 18, 2024:
Benchmark Indices:
Sensex: Closed at 81,343, up by 626 points or 0.78%.
Nifty: Closed at 24800, up by 187 points or 0.76%.
Market Movement:
The markets extended their positive streak, with the Nifty reaching 24,800, supported by gains across various sectors.
IT sector outperformed with a rally of over 2.20%, while Media sector corrected sharply, declining by 3.5%.
Technical Analysis:
Nifty successfully surpassed short-term resistance levels, indicating intensified positive momentum.
Support levels: 24,700/81,000; Resistance levels: 24,900-24,950/81,600-81,800.
Immediate support shifted higher towards 24,550-24,600.
Bank Nifty:
Held above the 20-day moving average, moving towards 53,000 following a gap down opening and testing support at 52,100.
Sectoral Performance:
Gainers: IT, FMCG, Auto, and Telecom sectors rose between 0.3% to 2%.
Losers: Media and Metal sectors declined by 1% to 3.5%.
Midcap & Smallcap: Both indices shed 1% each, recovering slightly but not outperforming the frontline indices.
Top Gainers (Nifty):
TCS, LTI, Mindtree, ONGC, Bajaj Finserv, Wipro.
Top Losers (Nifty):
Asian Paints, Hero MotoCorp, Grasim, Coal India, Bajaj Auto.
Market Sentiment:
Bullish sentiment prevailed, indicated by strong market breadth with more advances than declines.
Outlook:
Short-term trend remains positive above 24,500 for Nifty and 52,000 for Bank Nifty.
Potential resistance at 25,000 for Nifty and 53,000-53,300 for Bank Nifty in the near term.
This report summarizes the key developments and technical outlook for the Indian equity markets on July 18, 2024.
16 Jul
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 18 JULY 2024
Overview:
Indian benchmark indices extended their gains for the third consecutive session on July 16, albeit with cautious trading amidst global economic cues and anticipation around the upcoming Budget announcement. The markets displayed resilience despite mixed global sentiments.
Key Indices:
Sensex: Closed at 80,716.55, up 51.69 points or 0.06%.
Nifty: Ended at 24,613.00, gaining 26.30 points or 0.11%.
Market Performance:
The Sensex and Nifty showed marginal gains, maintaining a cautious stance ahead of the Budget.
Sectoral performances varied with Realty leading the gains (up 1.6%), followed by FMCG, IT, Metal, and Telecom sectors showing moderate increases.
Media sector witnessed a decline of 1%, with Power and Capital Goods indices also slipping by 0.5% each.
Midcap index dipped by 0.3% while the smallcap index edged up by 0.3%.
Sectoral Highlights:
Top Gainers: Coal India, BPCL, HUL, Tata Consumer Products, and Bharti Airtel.
Top Losers: Shriram Finance, Dr Reddy`s Labs, Kotak Mahindra Bank, UltraTech Cement, and Reliance Industries.
Market Sentiment:
Investors adopted a cautious approach amidst global economic uncertainties and subdued expectations for Q1FY25 earnings.
The upcoming earnings season and the Federal Reserve`s dovish stance on inflation were key global factors influencing market sentiment.
Technical Analysis:
Nifty showed signs of consolidation around the 24,600-24,650 range, with immediate support noted at 24,500.
Bank Nifty held support near the 20-day moving average, with expectations of potential upside towards 52,800-53,000 levels.
Global Cues:
Dovish comments from the Federal Reserve Chief and a drop in US 10-year yields hinted at a possible rate cut in September, influencing global market trends.
Conclusion:
The Indian equity markets closed higher for the third straight day, displaying resilience amid cautious trading. Sectoral performances varied, with Realty leading the gains and Media facing correction. Investors await further cues from the Budget announcement and the ongoing earnings season to guide future investment strategies.
12 Jul
NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 15 JUL 2024
Overview:
Indian equity markets ended the previous week on a strong note, primarily driven by robust performance in the Information Technology sector. The Sensex closed at 80,519.34, up by 622 points (0.78%), while the Nifty ended at 24,502.20, marking a gain of 186.20 points (0.77%). The market sentiment was buoyed by positive earnings from IT majors and anticipation of favorable economic indicators.
Key Developments Last Week:
Sector Performance:
Information Technology: The IT sector surged 4.5%, led by strong quarterly results from companies like TCS, Wipro, Infosys, and HCL Technologies.
Media: The Media sector also saw gains, adding over 2% during the week.
Other Sectors: Realty (-1.5%), Power (-1%), Capital Goods (-0.5%), and Auto (-0.5%) indices faced downward pressure.
Market Drivers:
Earnings Season: Positive Q1 results from IT companies boosted overall market sentiment.
Global Cues: Investors monitored US economic data and developments in China, influencing global market trends.
Domestic Factors: Expectations of a rate cut and pre-budget optimism contributed to market optimism.
Upcoming Events:
Domestic: Release of India`s inflation data and key corporate earnings including Jio Financials, HDFC Life, Asian Paints, and others.
Global: Market reaction to China’s Q2 GDP figures, US Core Retail Sales data, and ECB interest rate decisions.
Market Outlook (July 15 - July 19, 2024):
Sector Focus: IT sector likely to remain in focus with ongoing earnings announcements. Other sectors may see selective buying based on earnings performance.
Economic Indicators: Market movement could be influenced by India`s inflation data and global economic reports.
Policy Expectations: Anticipation of a potential rate cut may continue to drive investor sentiment positively.
Technical Levels: Resistance at 52,800 for the Sensex and support at the 21 EMA for the Nifty may guide short-term trading strategies.
Strategy for Investors:
Buy-on-Dips: Given the current momentum and positive earnings outlook, adopting a buy-on-dips strategy could be prudent.
Sector Rotation: Monitor sectoral performance closely, especially IT and Media, for potential trading opportunities.
Risk Management: Consider volatility in sectors like Realty and Power; diversify portfolios accordingly.
Conclusion:
The Indian equity market is poised with optimism heading into the upcoming trading week, supported by strong earnings momentum in the IT sector and favorable global economic cues. Investors are advised to stay informed about key economic indicators and corporate earnings releases to navigate potential market movements effectively.
03 Jul
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 4 JULY 2024
Summary
On July 3, the Indian equity indices experienced a positive trading session, with both the Sensex and Nifty closing higher. The Nifty managed to close above the 24,250 mark, despite a lack of follow-through momentum at the beginning of the session. This upward movement was driven by buying across most sectors, except media.
Market Highlights
Sensex: Closed at 79,986, up by 545 5points.
Nifty: Closed at 24,286, up by 162.70 points.
Sector Performance
Top Performing Sectors: BankNifty, Metals, PSU Banks
Broader Markets: The Midcap and Smallcap indices outperformed the Frontline Index with gains of 0.79% and 1.03% respectively.
Sectoral Indices: All sectoral indices, except media, ended in the green. Power, capital goods, bank, and metal sectors were up 1-2%.
Technical Analysis
Nifty:
The Nifty has regained bullish momentum, closing above the 24,250 mark.
The index showed resilience, maintaining a range and closing at 24,286.50.
A Dragonfly DOJI candlestick pattern at record levels suggests a possible pause or consolidation.
On the hourly chart, the Nifty shows a probable negative divergence in RSI, with potential support at 24,200. A move below this could drag the index towards 24,130.
Immediate resistance is seen at 24,500, and maintaining above 24,000 will likely support the bullish trend.
Bank Nifty:
Strong upward momentum, closing above 53,000.
The daily chart indicates a strong uptrend with higher highs and higher lows.
Immediate support at 52,500 offers an ideal entry point for fresh long positions on any dip.
Market Breadth
Advances: 2075 shares
Declines: 1372 shares
Unchanged: 66 shares
Major Gainers
Tata Consumer Products
Adani Ports
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Axis Bank
HDFC Bank
Major Losers
TCS
Titan Company
Reliance Industries
Tata Motors
Hindalco Industries
Conclusion
The Indian equity markets displayed a strong performance on July 3, driven by broad-based buying across sectors except for media. The positive sentiment was reflected in the significant gains of major indices. The Nifty`s ability to sustain above 24,000 and close in on 24,500 suggests a continuation of the bullish trend in the near term. Bank Nifty`s performance also indicates strong buying interest, particularly at lower levels. However, traders should watch for potential consolidation or minor corrections, especially with technical indicators showing divergence.
01 Jul
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY 2 JUL 2024
Overview
Indian benchmark indices bounced back from the previous session’s losses and closed higher on July 1, 2024. The Nifty ended above the 24,100 mark, and the Sensex gained 443 points to close at 79,476, marking an increase of 0.56%. The Nifty rose by 131 points, closing at 24,142, up by 0.55%. This positive movement was observed despite a mixed sectoral performance, with significant gains in IT, financials, and metals, while energy and realty sectors faced declines.
Market Performance
Sensex: Closed at 79,476, up by 443 points.
Nifty: Closed at 24,142, up by 131 points.
Sectoral Performance
Gainers:
IT: Rose nearly 2%, driven by renewed strength in IT stocks.
Financials: Showed decent gains alongside metals.
Metals: Continued to perform well.
Cement Stocks: Witnessed significant buying traction, contributing to sectoral gains.
Losers:
Energy: Dipped around half a percent.
Realty: Experienced a slight decline.
PSU Banks: Ended the day with a loss of 0.76%.
Power: Was among the few sectors that ended in the red.
Broader Market Performance
Midcap Index: Added more than 1%, hitting a fresh record high.
Smallcap Index: Also advanced over 1%, outperforming the benchmark indices.
Market Sentiment
The consistent buying interest on dips indicates strong bullish control, likely to maintain the current upward momentum. The renewed strength in midcap and smallcap segments adds further positivity to the market sentiment. The formation of a reasonable positive candle on the daily chart, placed beside the small negative candle of the previous session, suggests that the minor negative sentiment created on Friday has been nullified.
Chart Analysis
Positive Chart Pattern: The higher tops and bottoms pattern remains intact, with a minor higher bottom formed last week. This suggests the market is on an uptrend towards forming another higher top at new highs.
Bullish Engulfing: The daily chart indicates the presence of strong momentum, suggesting the index is heading toward the 24,250-24,400 zone.
Support Levels: Immediate support is placed at 23,940 and 23,980 levels, indicating a higher shift in support.
Key Influences
US PCE Inflation: The reduction in US PCE inflation has raised hopes for a rate cut by the FED in September, contributing to the strong performance of IT stocks.
US Job Data and Fed Chair’s Speech: Investors are focused on upcoming US job data and the Fed Chair’s speech for further indications on interest rates.
Top Performers
Gainers
Tech Mahindra
Wipro
Bajaj Finance
UltraTech Cement
Grasim Industries
Losers
NTPC
Eicher Motors
Dr Reddy`s Labs
SBI
Apollo Hospitals
Conclusion
The Indian market`s performance on July 1, 2024, reflected a positive start to the week, with benchmark indices erasing previous session losses and ending higher. The bullish momentum, coupled with strong buying interest on dips and renewed strength in midcap and smallcap segments, indicates a positive underlying trend. Traders are advised to focus on sectors with rotational participation and consider adding positions during market pauses or dips. The market is expected to target the 24,400 level in the near term, with strong support levels ensuring stability.
28 Jun
NIFTY WEEKLY REPORT & OUTLOOK FOR TRADING ON `1 JUL TO 5 JUL 2024
Indian benchmark indices ended lower in a volatile session on June 28.
Key Indices Performance
Sensex: Down 210.45 points or 0.27% at 79,032.73
Nifty: Down 33.90 points or 0.14% at 24,010.60
The markets traded within a narrow range throughout the day, closing nearly unchanged after a recent surge. Initially positive, the session saw profit-taking in key heavyweights that offset early gains, resulting in the Nifty settling around 24,009.30 levels, down by 0.15%.
Sector Performance
Despite the overall decline, sectors like energy, pharma, and metal ended in positive territory, contributing to gains of around 0.5%-0.9% in broader indices. Here’s a closer look:
Healthcare, Metal, PSU Bank, Oil & Gas, Realty: Up 0.5%-1%
Bank Index: Down 1%
Capital Goods Index: Shed 0.4%
BSE Midcap and Smallcap Index: Added 0.5% each
Stock Performance
Top Gainers:
ONGC
Dr Reddy`s Labs
Reliance Industries
SBI Life Insurance
Tata Motors
Top Losers:
IndusInd Bank
Bharti Airtel
Axis Bank
ICICI Bank
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Market Sentiment and Future Outlook
Looking ahead, there’s a possibility of consolidation in the benchmark index following recent upward movements, with support expected around the 23,700-23,900 range on any declines. Banking stocks are currently consolidating, while sectors such as IT, energy, and FMCG are buoying the index higher. Similar market dynamics are anticipated in the upcoming sessions, so traders should strategize accordingly.
India’s optimism about the upcoming budget and upgrades in GDP forecasts continues to provide momentum in the market. Large caps are in favor due to the comeback of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). However, profit booking ensued at the end of the week at higher levels, especially in financials and private banks, which dragged the market down after the recent rally.
BankNifty Index Analysis
The BankNifty index experienced its first meaningful correction after a nonstop rally in the past week. For the selling pressure to continue, there needs to be follow-up selling; otherwise, the index may get stuck in a consolidation range.
Immediate Support: 52,000 (highest open interest on the put side)
Immediate Resistance: 52,700-53,000 zone
The index formed a small-bodied red candle, breaking a four-day winning streak. The sentiment continues to remain strong as the index closed significantly above the critical moving average. However, after a continuous rally, the index looks a bit heavy and might attract profit booking if Nifty sustains below 24,000.
Support Levels: 23,850 / 23,700 in the short term upon a decisive fall below 24,000.
Resistance Levels: 24,200 on the higher end.
Market Breadth
Advancing Shares: 1,929
Declining Shares: 1,449
Unchanged Shares: 80
26 Jun
NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TRADING TIPS FOR 27 JUN 2024
Key Highlights:
Sensex Performance: Up by 620 points, a gain of 0.80%, closing at 78674.
Nifty Performance: Up by 147 points, a gain of 0.62%, closing at 23868.
Market Overview:
Sectoral Performance:
Gainers: Energy, FMCG, Banking
Losers: Metal, Auto, Realty
Broader Indices: Midcap index down by 0.30%, Smallcap index ended flat.
Detailed Analysis:
Nifty Movement:
Opened flat but gained momentum, closing near the day`s high at 23,868.80.
Follow-through buying observed post consolidation range breakout.
Short-term target: 24,150.
Support zone: 23,700 – 23,680 (recommended as buying opportunity).
Momentum indicators (daily and hourly) are in sync, suggesting continued momentum.
Bank Nifty Movement:
Continued uptrend, nearing the 53,000 mark.
Immediate resistance: 53,660.
Crucial support: 52,300 – 51,900.
Buy-on-dip approach advised, with strong support at 52,500-52,400.
Aggressive put writing at lower levels indicates robust support.
Stock Performance:
Top Gainers:
Reliance Industries
UltraTech Cement
Bharti Airtel
ICICI Bank
Grasim Industries
Top Losers:
Apollo Hospitals
Bajaj Auto
M&M
Tata Steel
Hindalco Industries
Sector Performance:
Upward Movers:
Bank, Oil & Gas, Telecom, Media, FMCG (up by 0.3-2%)
Downward Movers:
Auto, Metal, Realty (down by 0.7-1.5%)
Market Sentiment:
Breadth: 1634 shares advanced, 1763 shares declined, 85 shares unchanged.
Profit Booking: Expected due to rally driven by select heavyweights.
Derivative Expiry: Volatility anticipated due to monthly expiry of June derivatives contracts.
Strategic Recommendations:
Continue with a “buy on dips” strategy, focusing on specific sectors and themes for stock selection.
Monitor Nifty and Bank Nifty for potential buying opportunities near support zones.
Summary:
The Indian benchmark indices reached record closing highs on June 26, driven primarily by selective heavyweights like Reliance Industries and strong performances in sectors like banking, FMCG, and energy. Despite mixed sectoral trends and pressure in mid and smallcap indices, the broader market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Volatility is expected ahead of the monthly derivatives expiry, reinforcing the recommendation to adopt a strategic buy-on-dips approach.
25 Jun
NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION TRADING TIPS FOR 26 JUN 2024
Overview
The market experienced a bullish phase driven by investor confidence in the banking and select frontline IT stocks, which propelled benchmark indices to fresh highs. Despite a majority of sectors closing in the red, the significant gains in the financial sector highlighted a positive trend.
Market Performance
Nifty 50:
Closed at: 23,754.15 (+183 points)
Trend: Positive with sustainable upside recovery.
Immediate support: 23,550
Immediate resistance: 23,835 - 24,000
Sensex:
Closed at: 78,164 (+712 points)
Sector Rotation: Led by banking, with profit booking in realty, power, metals, and midcaps.
Sectoral Performance
Banking and Financials: Outperformed with over 1% rally.
Nifty Bank Index:
New high: Broke above 52,000 resistance.
Trading: Strong uptrend with higher highs and higher lows.
Immediate targets: 53,000/53,500
Support: 52,000
IT Sector: Showed robust performance, contributing significantly to the bullish trend.
Realty Sector: Declined by nearly 2%, indicating profit booking.
Other Sectors:
Metals, energy, and broader indices ended flat to marginally lower, reflecting moderate consolidation.
Technical Analysis
Nifty 50:
Formed a long bull candle on the daily chart, indicating a potential upside breakout.
Intraday range: Held positive momentum after a strong opening.
Higher bottom formation on intraday charts suggests a continuation of the uptrend wave.
Bank Nifty Index:
Breaking resistance of 52,000 with significant call-side open interest build-up.
In strong uptrend with support at 52,000.
Intraday dips are seen as buying opportunities for targets of 53,000/53,500.
Trend Analysis
The short-term trend for Nifty remains positive, with early signs of an upside breakout.
Key Levels:
Trend decider level for traders: 23,600/77,500.
Immediate resistance zones: 23,835-24,000/78,500-78,700.
Below 23,600/77,500, the uptrend would be vulnerable, advising traders to exit long positions.
Market Sentiment
The market`s upward movement is influenced by expectations from the upcoming budget and the progress of the monsoon, which could impact the consumption outlook.
Conclusion
The bullish trend driven by the banking sector, particularly private banks, and the performance of frontline IT stocks suggest a positive market outlook in the short term. However, sector rotations and profit booking in specific areas like realty and metals indicate a cautious approach for investors. Key levels and trend decider points should be monitored closely for making informed trading decisions.
24 Jun
NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION TRADING TIPS FOR 25 JUN 2024
Overview
Indian benchmark indices experienced a marginal increase in a volatile trading session on June 24. Both the Sensex and Nifty showed resilience by recovering from early losses to close in positive territory. The Sensex closed at 77,341, up 0.17% or 131 points, while the Nifty ended at 23,537, up 0.16% or 36 points.
Market Performance
Sensex: Up 0.17% (131 points) to 77,341
Nifty: Up 0.16% (36 points) to 23,537
Advance/Decline: 1,796 shares advanced, 1,692 shares declined, and 134 shares remained unchanged.
Trading Dynamics
The trading session saw significant fluctuations, with both indices initially falling by up to 0.5% before recovering. The Nifty opened gap down but managed to recover, closing with a gain of approximately 37 points. The index has been trading in the range of 23,200 to 23,700 over the past ten sessions, suggesting a consolidation phase.
Technical Analysis
Nifty: The index has been trading between 23,200 and 23,700. Dips towards 23,200 are seen as buying opportunities with a trailing stop loss set at 23,200. A positive crossover in the hourly momentum indicator suggests a buy signal. Immediate resistance is seen at 23,600, with potential for further upside if this level is breached.
Bank Nifty: Consolidating after a rally of approximately 1,700 points. Buying is recommended on dips towards 51,350 – 51,300, with immediate resistance at 52,500. A breakout above this resistance could see the index move towards 52,400 – 52,800.
Sectoral Performance
Gainers: Auto, FMCG, Capital Goods, Telecom, and Power indices rose by 0.5% to 1%.
Losers: Metal, Oil & Gas, PSU Bank, and Media sectors fell by 0.5% to 1%.
Top Performers
Nifty Gainers: M&M, Shriram Finance, Power Grid Corporation, Sun Pharma, Grasim Industries.
Nifty Losers: Cipla, IndusInd Bank, Adani Ports, Coal India, Tata Steel.
Broader Market
BSE Midcap: Increased by 0.3%.
BSE Smallcap: Increased by 0.3%.
Midcaps outperformed the frontline indices, whereas small caps ended in the red.
Market Sentiment
Despite a consolidative trend, sectoral rotation is evident, particularly in FMCG and consumer durables sectors, driven by budget expectations. Improved tax collection and dividends from the RBI are likely to support rural spending and tax benefits. Investors remain optimistic about growth in sectors like capital goods, infrastructure, and auto, despite valuation concerns in mid- and small-cap stocks.
Conclusion
The Indian stock market showed resilience in a choppy session, with both the Sensex and Nifty managing to close marginally higher. The market remains in a consolidation phase with defined support and resistance levels. Investors are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy, particularly in sectors showing strength and positive momentum indicators.
22 Jun
NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & TIPS FOR NEXT WEEK 24 JUN 2024
Overview
On June 21, the Indian benchmark indices ended lower in a highly volatile session. The Nifty closed at 23,501, down 65 points or 0.28%. The Sensex also experienced a downturn, closing at 77,209, a decrease of 269 points or 0.35%. Despite the decline, the markets managed to pare some losses towards the end, mitigating the extent of the drop.
Market Dynamics
Profit Booking: Investors partially booked profits following a six-session rally. This movement was influenced by weak global cues.
Sectoral Performance:
Gainers: IT, Metal, Media, and Telecom sectors showed gains ranging from 0.5-1 percent.
Losers: Auto, FMCG, PSU Bank, and Realty sectors were down by 0.5-1 percent.
Heatwave Impact: The ongoing heatwave in Northern India drove up consumer durables stocks, although the slow progress of the monsoon led to underperformance in the FMCG sector.
Global Influence: Global markets were subdued, particularly due to weak guidance from Accenture, which led to profit booking in US tech stocks. However, domestic IT stocks saw buying interest as weaker earnings were anticipated by market participants.
Index Performances
Sensex: Down by 269 points (0.35%) to 77,209.
Nifty: Down by 65 points (0.28%) to 23,501.
Nifty Bank: Exhibited a volatile session, ending flat. The index faces immediate resistance at 52,000, with the highest open interest on the call side. The support is placed at 51,000, where the highest open interest on the put side is noted.
Midcap Index: Down by 0.3%.
Smallcap Index: Ended flat.
Market Breadth
Advances: 1611 shares.
Declines: 1750 shares.
Unchanged: 85 shares.
Key Performers
Top Gainers on Nifty: Bharti Airtel, LTIMindtree, Adani Ports, Hindalco, Infosys.
Top Losers on Nifty: Adani Enterprises, UltraTech Cement, BPCL, Tata Motors, Tata Consumer Products.
Weekly Trends
Overall Performance: Despite the daily decline, both Sensex and Nifty posted minor gains of 0.2% each for the third consecutive week.
Nifty Bank: Recorded the biggest weekly gain of 2024, up more than 3 percent, marking the longest gaining streak in 19 months (up for six consecutive weeks).
Midcap Index: Gained 0.5% over the week.
IT Sector: Best performing sectoral index for the week.
Upcoming Events
Investors are now looking forward to the Union Budget in July, hoping for a market-friendly budget that will boost economic activity and investment. Additionally, attention is on the upcoming GST meeting, where potential rationalization of GST rates in certain sectors is under discussion.
20 Jun
NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 21 JUN 2024
Market Overview
Indian benchmark indices ended marginally higher in a volatile trading session on June 20, 2024. The Sensex gained 141 points to close at 77,478, while the Nifty increased by 51 points to end at 23,567.
Market Highlights
Top Nifty Gainers:
Grasim Industries
Hindalco Industries
JSW Steel
Adani Ports
BPCL
Top Nifty Losers:
Hero MotoCorp
Sun Pharma
M&M (Mahindra & Mahindra)
NTPC
Wipro
Sectoral Performance:
Gainers: Metals, Capital Goods, Realty, Oil & Gas
Losers: Auto, Pharma, PSU Banks
Market Dynamics
The session was marked by significant volatility but ultimately concluded on a positive note. Key influencing factors included:
Domestic Factors:
Anticipation of the upcoming Union Budget.
Progress of the monsoon season.
Global Factors:
Decline in US bond yields, leading to robust Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) inflows.
Fertilizer stocks showed substantial momentum due to the proposed removal of GST and an increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP).
Technical Analysis
The Nifty formed a small negative candle on the daily chart, indicative of a Doji type candle pattern, suggesting indecision and broader sideways range movement.
Immediate Support Level: 23,450
Resistance Level: 23,660
Short-term Upside Target: 23,950
Despite minor knee-jerk reactions, the Nifty displayed gradual upward momentum within a narrow range. The overall trend remains range-bound, with potential minor intraday weaknesses around the 23,750-23,800 levels, which could present short-term buying opportunities.
Sectoral Performance
Metal and Realty: Top performers with over 1% gains.
Auto: Continued profit-booking corrections.
Pharma: Ended as the major laggard.
Chemical and Fertilizer Stocks: Dominated the trade, soaring in the range of ~10-20%.
Market Sentiment
The market exhibited cautious optimism, particularly as US indices were closed on Wednesday, influencing domestic investors` sentiment. The trend of outperformance by Mid and Smallcap stocks resumed after a brief pause, indicated by the Spinning Top candlestick pattern, suggesting continued protection at the lower side of 23,340 and resistance at 23,660.
Closing Summary
The Indian stock market experienced a mixed but ultimately positive session. Investor focus remains on the upcoming Union Budget and monsoon progress, while global cues, particularly US bond yields, continue to impact FII inflows. Sectoral rotations were evident, with selective buying in certain sectors like Metals and Realty, while others like Auto and Pharma faced selling pressure.
Market Outlook
In the near term, markets are likely to continue experiencing range-bound movements with potential minor weaknesses providing buying opportunities. Investors should watch the 23,750-23,800 levels for possible intraday weakness and the 23,950 level as the near-term upside target.
19 Jun
NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL PUT TIPS FOR 20 JUN 2024
Key Indices Performance:
Sensex:
Closed at 77,337, up by 36 points.
Nifty:
Closed at 23,516, down by 41 points.
Market Summary:
The Indian benchmark indices experienced a volatile session on June 19, with the Sensex marginally up and the Nifty closing lower. Despite the choppy trading, the overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic with a short-term bullish outlook, particularly in banking stocks.
Intraday Analysis:
Nifty Movement:
The Nifty index remained range-bound between 23,450 and 23,650, eventually closing at 23,516.
The index formed a Bearish Engulfing candle on the daily chart, indicating a potential short-term reversal.
There is a bearish divergence in RSI, suggesting a temporary pause in the uptrend.
Support is expected at the 55-hour EMA (23,340), with resistance at today’s high (23,660).
Bank Nifty:
Continued strong momentum, approaching 52,000.
Immediate support is in the 51,000-50,900 range.
The index is in a buy mode, with targets of 52,100-52,600.
Sector Performance:
Top Performers:
Banking Sector: Up by 2%, led by HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank.
IT Sector: Increased by 0.4%.
Lagging Sectors:
Auto, Capital Goods, Metal, Oil & Gas, Power, Realty: All down by 1-3%.
Energy and Realty: Corrected the most during the session.
Midcap and Smallcap Indices:
BSE Midcap Index: Fell by 1%.
BSE Smallcap Index: Shed 0.6%.
Market Breadth:
Advancers: 1430 shares
Decliners: 1969 shares
Unchanged: 62 shares
Top Gainers:
HDFC Bank
Axis Bank
ICICI Bank
IndusInd Bank
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Top Losers:
Titan Company
Maruti Suzuki
Larsen & Toubro (L&T)
Hindalco
Bharti Airtel
Technical Outlook:
The short-term trend for the Nifty remains strong as long as it sustains above the 55-hour EMA (23,340).
Potential upward target in the short term is 23,800 and beyond.
Bank Nifty’s strong momentum is expected to continue, making it a favorable buy on dips.
Conclusion:
Today’s trading session was characterized by volatility, with mixed performances across various sectors. While banking and IT sectors provided support, other sectors such as auto, capital goods, and realty dragged the indices down. The Nifty’s formation of a Bearish Engulfing candle suggests a cautious approach in the near term, though the overall market sentiment continues to favor short-term bullish trades, particularly in banking stocks. Investors should watch for support levels and possible upward targets in the coming sessions.
18 Jun
Market Report: Nifty Bank and Nifty50 Performance Analysis
Overview
On Tuesday, the Nifty Bank index extended its rally for the second consecutive day, driven by positive global cues. This upward movement saw the index breaking through critical resistance levels and achieving significant gains. The broader Nifty50 index also experienced an uplift, hitting a fresh record high, indicating a robust and optimistic market sentiment.
Nifty Bank Performance
Closing Value: 50,440
Daily Gain: 438 points
Resistance Level Surpassed: 50,250
The Nifty Bank index closed 438 points higher at 50,440, successfully surpassing the critical resistance mark of 50,250. This breakout signals a continuation of the bullish momentum, with the next target likely being the 51,000 mark. The undertone remains strongly bullish, and a buy approach is recommended, with solid support noted at 49,700.
Nifty50 Performance
Closing Value: 23,557
Daily Gain: 92 points
Record High: 23,579
The Nifty50 index rose by 92 points to close at 23,557, reaching a fresh record high of 23,579 during the trading session. Despite a range-bound movement on an intraday basis over the past few days, the index managed to climb above the 23,500 mark, reinforcing a positive trend. Key support is positioned at 23,300, with the potential for the index to move towards 23,800 on the higher end.
Market Sentiment
The Indian market continues to touch record highs, buoyed by gains achieved post-national elections and optimism surrounding the upcoming budget. This budget is expected to balance growth with populist measures, further encouraging market confidence. Additionally, positive global market trends and a steady US market ahead of the presidential election in November are contributing to the bullish outlook. A notable decrease in market volatility over the past month has also supported this short-term upward trend.
Conclusion
The Nifty Bank`s breakout above 50,250 and its strong close at 50,440 indicate a sustained bullish momentum, with an eye on the 51,000 mark. Similarly, the Nifty50`s move past 23,500 and its new record high of 23,579 underscore the positive sentiment prevailing in the market. Investors are advised to maintain a buy approach, capitalizing on the strong support levels identified for both indices. The overall market outlook remains optimistic, driven by favorable domestic and global factors.
14 Jun
NIFTY WEEKLY OUTLOOK & REPORT FOR 18 JUN 2024
Overview
Indian benchmark indices concluded positively on June 14, with the Nifty index achieving a new record high. The Sensex increased by 181 points or 0.24%, closing at 76,992, and the Nifty rose by 67 points or 0.29%, settling at 23,466. The market demonstrated a consolidation bias, maintaining a range-bound movement throughout the day after an initial dip.
Market Performance
Sensex: Up 181 points (0.24%) at 76,992
Nifty: Up 67 points (0.29%) at 23,466
Advance-Decline Ratio: 2,177 shares advanced, 1,598 shares declined, and 106 shares remained unchanged.
Rupee: Ended flat at 83.56 per dollar.
Sectoral Performance
Gainers:
Auto
Realty
Metal
Telecom
Capital Goods
Healthcare
Oil & Gas
Power
Laggers:
Information Technology (down 0.7%)
Key Gainers and Losers
Top Gainers on Nifty:
Eicher Motors
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M)
Adani Ports
Shriram Finance
Titan Company
Top Losers on Nifty:
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS)
Tech Mahindra
HCL Technologies
Wipro
Nestle
Broader Market Indices
BSE Midcap: Up 1%
BSE Smallcap: Up 1%
Midcap Index:
7% rise in two weeks, marking the biggest gain in nearly three years.
Nearly 4% gain this week.
Technical Analysis
Nifty:
Consolidating in the range of 23,200 – 23,500 for five consecutive days.
A breakout above 23,600 could trigger an uptrend towards 24,000.
Positive momentum indicator crossover suggests potential for an upward move.
Bank Nifty:
Facing resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level (50,050).
Needs to surpass 50,200 for confirmation of an upside breakout towards 51,000.
Support levels: 49,500-49,400 zone.
Trading Strategy
Nifty:
Use dips around 23,100-23,300 to initiate fresh positional longs.
A decisive close above 23,600 is crucial for the next leg towards 24,000.
Bank Nifty:
Buy interest on dips towards 49,500-49,400 for a target of 50,500 – 50,600.
Watch for a break below 49,400, which may indicate further downside risk.
Market Sentiment
Market gains have extended for the second straight week, with the Nifty up over 4% in two weeks.
Sensex and Nifty have recorded their biggest two-week gains since December 2023.
The Bank Nifty has shown moderate growth, up 0.3% for the week.
Renewed buying interest in midcap and smallcap stocks suggests investor confidence, despite higher valuation concerns in large-cap stocks.
Anticipation is building ahead of the upcoming government budget, which may introduce intra-day volatility in the markets.
Conclusion
The Indian markets ended the week on a strong note with significant gains in the Nifty and Sensex. The consolidation phase observed in the Nifty index indicates a potential breakout, while sectoral movements and broader market indices suggest a bullish undertone. Investors are advised to focus on a stock-specific approach and use dips for long positions, keeping an eye on key support and resistance levels. The upcoming budget and market expectations may drive short-term volatility, presenting both opportunities and risks.
13 Jun
NIFTY OUTLOOK & NIFTY OPTION TRADING TIPS FOR 14 JUN 2024
Market Overview
Indian benchmark indices ended higher for the third straight session on June 13, 2024. The Sensex gained 204 points (0.27%) to close at 76,810, while the Nifty rose 75 points (0.33%) to settle at 23,398. Despite the gains, the markets remained range-bound throughout the day.
Index Performance
Sensex: 76,810 (+204 points / +0.27%)
Nifty: 23,398 (+75 points / +0.33%)
Nifty Close: 23,399
Market Breadth:
Advances: 2048
Declines: 1371
Unchanged: 80
Sectoral Performance
Gainers:
Realty: Top performer of the day, supported by morning gains.
Information Technology (IT): Showed strong performance, up 1%.
Capital Goods: Rose by 2%.
Laggards:
Media: Witnessed profit booking correction after a recent rally, down 1%.
Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG): Fell by 0.6%.
Energy: Lagged behind other sectors.
Stock Performance
Top Gainers:
Shriram Finance
HDFC Life
Divis Labs
M&M
Titan Company
Top Losers:
HUL
Power Grid Corp
Axis Bank
Britannia Industries
Eicher Motors
Broader Market Indices
BSE Midcap: Up nearly 1%
BSE Smallcap: Up nearly 1%
Market Insights
The markets exhibited a mixed trend sector-wise. While realty and IT sectors led the gains, FMCG and energy sectors underperformed.
Mid and small-cap indices continued their streak of outperformance, each rising by approximately 0.60%.
The Nifty displayed a time-wise correction, with signs indicating that this trend may continue. It is suggested to focus on stock-specific trading, particularly in agriculture-related stocks, sugar, chemicals, and select defense stocks for long positions.
Technical Analysis
Nifty Resistance Levels: 23,480
Nifty Support Levels: 23,300
The Index formed a bearish candle at record levels and exhibited a bearish divergence on the hourly timeframe, suggesting a loss of positive momentum.
Recommendations
Investors are advised to focus on stock-specific opportunities, particularly in the following themes:
Agriculture-related stocks
Sugar stocks
Chemical stocks
Select defense stocks
Given the current market conditions, staying attuned to sectoral performance and resistance/support levels can help in making informed trading decisions.
12 Jun
NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 13 JUN 2024
Indian benchmark indices ended higher on June 12, with the Nifty above 23,300. The Sensex was up 149 points or 0.20% at 76,607, and the Nifty was up 58 points or 0.25% at 23,323.
Nifty Analysis
The Nifty witnessed another day of consolidation. Opening with gains, the index faced profit booking at higher levels but managed to close in the green, up ~58 points. On the daily charts, the Nifty has been trading in a range of 23,450 – 23,200 over the last three sessions. The hourly momentum indicator shows a negative crossover, causing rallies to fizzle out at higher levels.
Support Level: 23,150 – 23,100 (40-hour moving average)
Resistance/Target Level: 23,400 – 23,450
Short-term Trend: Positive, likely consolidating within 23,300 – 23,500
Potential Rally Trigger: Breakout above 23,500 could lead to 23,800
The broader market outperformed for the second consecutive day, with the Mid and Small Cap indices up 1.04% and 1.23% respectively.
Bank Nifty Analysis
Bank Nifty attempted a breakout above 50,300 but fell short, closing in the green up ~190 points.
Support Level: 49,600 - 49,500
Target Level: 50,500 – 50,600
Market Session Summary
Indian bourses began the session strong, registering a new high in the opening trade. However, lack of follow-through led to a range-bound performance, with a reversal in the last hour dragging the Nifty50 to settle at 23,323, up 58 points. Broader indices continued to outperform, with Mid and Small caps advancing over 1% each.
Sector Performance
Top Performers: Media, PSU Banking
Laggard: FMCG
A Shooting Star candlestick pattern at record levels suggests weakening bullish momentum. A firm close above 23,400 is essential to extend the upward trend, with support at 23,150.
Market Breadth
Advances: 2,284 shares
Declines: 1,159 shares
Unchanged: 74 shares
Top Gainers on Nifty
Coal India
Power Grid
SBI Life Insurance
Tech Mahindra
Eicher Motors
Top Losers on Nifty
Britannia
HUL
M&M
Titan Company
Tata Consumer
Sectoral Performance
Positive Performers: Telecom, Media, Capital Goods, Metal, Oil & Gas, Power (up 1% each)
Negative Performers: FMCG, Realty
Broader Indices
BSE Midcap Index: Up 1%
BSE Smallcap Index: Up 1%
This report summarizes the key movements and trends observed in the Indian stock market on June 12. Investors should consider the support and resistance levels in their trading strategies and note the performance of various sectors and broader indices for potential opportunities.
11 Jun
NIFTY OUTLOOK FOR 12 JUN 2024
Overview: Indian benchmark indices experienced a volatile trading session on June 11, ultimately ending on a flat note. The market sentiment remained uncertain, with indices showing choppy movement throughout the day. Despite opening with a positive bias and initial gains, intraday weakness emerged, particularly near the hurdle of 23400 levels for the Nifty, leading to a reversal of the day`s gains. The Sensex closed marginally lower, down 33 points at 76,456, while the Nifty managed to close with a minor gain of 5.60 points at 23264.
Key Highlights:
The Nifty encountered resistance at the 23400-23500 levels, marked by the 1.382% Fibonacci projection, weekly hanging man pattern, and the opening downside gap of June 4. This resistance zone posed challenges for sustaining new all-time highs, hinting at the possibility of a minor downward correction in the short term. Immediate support for Nifty was identified at 23050 levels.
Market sentiment remained sideways, with no clear directional move observed. A breakout from the 23150-23350 range was suggested to signal the future market direction. A decisive move above 23350 could potentially lead Nifty towards 23600, while support below 23150 was identified at 23000-22900 levels.
The BankNifty Index traded sideways, failing to surpass the 50000 mark, where significant call side open interest was built up. A breakout above 50000 could trigger short covering towards the 50500/51000 levels. The overall undertone for BankNifty remained bullish, with a recommended buy-on-dip strategy. Support was noted at 49000, where significant put side open interest was observed.
Sectoral Performance:
Selling pressure was evident in sectors such as banking, FMCG, healthcare, and metals, while capital goods, oil & gas, and realty sectors showed resilience, each posting gains of 1 percent.
Top gainers on the Nifty included ONGC, L&T, Adani Ports, Maruti Suzuki, and Tata Motors, while Kotak Mahindra Bank, Dr. Reddy`s Labs, Asian Paints, Reliance Industries, and Divis Labs registered losses.
Market Breadth:
Market breadth depicted a mixed picture, with 2246 shares advancing, 1193 shares declining, and 70 shares remaining unchanged.
The BSE midcap index rose by 0.7 percent, while the smallcap index added nearly 1 percent, indicating broader market strength.
Conclusion: The Indian stock market exhibited volatility and ended the day on a flat note, with indices struggling to maintain gains amidst resistance at key levels. Uncertainty prevailed regarding the future direction, with the market awaiting a decisive breakout to confirm the next trend. While certain sectors showed resilience, others faced selling pressure, reflecting the mixed sentiment among investors.
10 Jun
Market Report and Outlook for Indian Equity Indices (June 10)
Market Summary:
On June 10, the Indian equity markets ended a volatile session with marginal declines. The benchmark indices, the Sensex and the Nifty, closed lower despite hitting an all-time high during the trading day. The Sensex dropped by 203 points (0.27%) to settle at 76490, while the Nifty fell by 31 points (0.13%) to close at 23259. Despite the negative close, market breadth was positive with 2,381 shares advancing, 1,176 shares declining, and 91 shares remaining unchanged.
Key Highlights:
Nifty Performance: The Nifty opened with a gap-up and reached an all-time high of 23411 but failed to sustain this level, closing at the day`s low. Resistance was observed at the 23,300 level, with immediate support in the 23,000-22,900 zone. A break below this range could lead to aggressive selling pressure.
Sectoral Performance:
Top Losing Sectors: IT (-1.5%), Metal (-0.3%), Oil & Gas (-0.2%).
Top Gaining Sectors: Realty (+1.3%), Healthcare (+0.7%), Power (+0.4%).
Top Losers on Nifty: Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Wipro, M&M, LTIMindtree.
Top Gainers on Nifty: UltraTech Cement, Grasim Industries, Hero MotoCorp, Cipla, Power Grid Corp.
Market Volatility: The India VIX, a measure of market volatility, decreased by 2.71%, settling at 16.425, indicating reduced market fear.
Midcap and Smallcap Performance: The BSE midcap index rose by 0.5% while the smallcap index gained 1%.
Technical Analysis:
Nifty Analysis: The Nifty experienced a sharp rally of approximately 2,100 points over the past week. The hourly momentum indicator suggests a negative crossover, indicating a loss of momentum. The index is likely to consolidate within the 23,000-23,500 range in the near term.
Support Levels: Immediate support is at 23,160-23,100, with a crucial support zone at 23,000-22,900. Failure to sustain these levels could lead to a decline towards 22,930.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 23,420-23,500. A close above 23,350 could propel the index to new highs near 23,500 and beyond.
Bank Nifty Analysis: The Bank Nifty faced resistance at the 50,250 mark, corresponding with the 78.6% retracement level. The index is poised for consolidation with crucial support at 49,320-49,070 and immediate resistance at 50,250-50,350.
Market Outlook:
The Indian equity market is expected to remain volatile and consolidate within a broad range. The lack of fresh catalysts post the formation of the new government suggests potential for near-term consolidation. Institutional flows show a mixed trend, with Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) covering shorts and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) booking profits at historic highs.
Economic Factors: Optimism about a rate cut is waning due to healthy US economic data, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain its current stance. Any deviation from the anticipated rate cut could test market patience.
Volatility Expectation: With the India VIX settling lower, reduced market fear is anticipated in the near term.
Investment Strategy:
Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach given the current volatility and potential consolidation phase. Key strategies include:
Monitoring Support and Resistance Levels: Keeping an eye on crucial support and resistance levels for both Nifty and Bank Nifty to make informed trading decisions.
Sector Rotation: Considering sectors showing strength such as Realty, Healthcare, and Power for potential investment opportunities.
Risk Management: Employing proper risk management techniques to navigate the expected market consolidation and volatility.
Conclusion:
The Indian equity markets are likely to experience a period of consolidation within the 23,000-23,500 range for the Nifty. Investors should remain vigilant, focusing on sector-specific opportunities and adhering to disciplined risk management practices amidst the current market dynamics.
08 Jun
Understanding Call and Put Options: A Comprehensive Guide
Introduction
Call and put options are financial derivatives that provide buyers the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a specified price within a particular timeframe. These options are essential tools in financial markets for hedging, speculation, and managing risk.
Types of Option Contracts
Option contracts can be classified into two major types based on when they can be exercised:
American-style options: These can be exercised at any time before their expiration.
European-style options: These can only be exercised on the expiration date.
Typically, traded call and put options belong to American-style options, allowing them to be squared off anytime before the expiration date.
Call Options
Definition
A call option provides the buyer the right to purchase an underlying asset, such as a stock, at a predetermined price (strike price) before the option expires. Buyers are not obligated to exercise this right.
How Call Options Work
A call option contract is formulated between an option seller (writer) and an option buyer. The seller grants the buyer the right to buy a specific security at a set price. For equity call options, each contract generally covers 100 shares. The buyer must pay an option premium to the seller for this right.
If the underlying security’s price exceeds the strike price, the call option gains intrinsic value, benefiting the buyer. If not, the option may expire worthless, and the premium paid is lost.
Example of Call Option
Assume Gammon India`s stock is priced at Rs. 100 per share. Investor B, holding 100 shares, sells a call option with a strike price of Rs. 150 for a premium of Rs. 0.50 per share. If the stock price rises above Rs. 150, the buyer will exercise the option, and B must sell the shares at Rs. 150 each. If the price does not exceed Rs. 150, B keeps the shares and the premium.
Put Options
Definition
A put option gives the buyer the right to sell the underlying asset at a specified strike price before the expiration date. The seller (writer) of the put option is obligated to buy the asset if the buyer exercises the option.
How Put Options Work
A put option’s value increases as the price of the underlying asset decreases. Buyers use put options to hedge against price declines or to speculate on a drop in asset value. If the asset’s price falls below the strike price, the put option becomes valuable. Otherwise, the buyer may let the option expire worthless, losing only the premium paid.
Example of Put Option
Suppose A buys a put option on Ford Motor Co. with a strike price of Rs. 100. If A holds 100 shares and the price drops below Rs. 100, A can sell the shares at Rs. 100, with the option writer purchasing them at this price.
Basic Terms
Spot Price: Current price of the underlying asset in the market.
Strike Price: Agreed price at which the asset can be bought or sold.
Option Premium: Non-refundable amount paid by the option buyer to the seller.
Option Expiry: Date when the option contract expires.
Settlement: In India, options are typically settled in cash.
Call Option Payoffs
For Buyers
Buyers profit if the underlying asset`s price exceeds the strike price plus the premium paid. The payoff and profit are calculated as:
Payoff = Spot Price - Strike Price
Profit = Payoff - Premium Paid
For Sellers
Sellers profit if the underlying asset`s price remains below the strike price. Their profit is limited to the premium received, but losses can be unlimited if the asset’s price rises significantly.
Payoff = Spot Price - Strike Price
Profit = Payoff + Premium Paid
Put Option Payoffs
For Buyers
Buyers profit if the underlying asset`s price falls below the strike price. The payoff and profit are calculated as:
Payoff = Strike Price - Spot Price
Profit = Payoff - Premium Paid
For Sellers
Sellers profit if the asset’s price stays above the strike price. Their maximum profit is the premium received, with potential losses if the asset`s price drops.
Payoff = Strike Price - Spot Price
Profit = Payoff + Premium Paid
Risk vs. Reward
Buying Call Options
Market Price < Strike Price: Loss
Market Price > Strike Price: Profit
Market Price = Strike Price: Break-even
Selling Call Options
Market Price < Strike Price: Profit
Market Price > Strike Price: Loss
Market Price = Strike Price: Profit from premium
Buying Put Options
Market Price < Strike Price: Profit
Market Price > Strike Price: Loss
Market Price = Strike Price: Loss of premium
Selling Put Options
Market Price < Strike Price: Loss
Market Price > Strike Price: Profit
Market Price = Strike Price: Profit from premium
Conclusion
Understanding call and put options is crucial for investors looking to hedge risk or speculate on market movements. While call options offer the potential for profits if the underlying asset’s price rises, put options provide gains when the asset’s price falls. Both types of options come with inherent risks and rewards that must be carefully considered.
08 Jun
NIFTY WEEKLY REPORT & OUTLOOK FOR 10 JUN 2024
Overview
Indian benchmark indices extended their rally for the third consecutive session on June 7, with the Nifty closing around 23,300. The Sensex surged by 1,618 points, reaching 76693, while the Nifty rose by 468 points, closing at 23290. This bullish momentum reflects a positive sentiment across the market, driven by several favorable factors.
Nifty Analysis
Opening and Closing: Nifty opened flat but gradually inched higher throughout the day, ending with a substantial gain of 469 points.
Technical Indicators:
On the daily charts, the Nifty has shown a V-shaped recovery following a sharp decline earlier in the week, regaining all lost ground.
The index is now close to its previous all-time high of 23,338, suggesting bullish momentum.
Support Zone: Dips towards the 22,800 – 22,700 range are considered buying opportunities.
Resistance: Psychological resistance at 23,500 may lead to profit booking.
Trend: The short-term trend is highly positive, with potential movement towards 23,500-23,600. Profit booking might occur if the index falls below 23,000.
Bank Nifty Analysis
Performance: Bank Nifty continued its pullback but remains below its previous all-time high of 51,133.
Support and Resistance:
Buying opportunities are seen in dips towards the 49,500 – 49,000 range.
Immediate hurdle stands at 51,133.
Trend: The pullback is likely to persist, supported by overall market stability and positive economic indicators.
Market Sentiment
Economic Factors:
Stability within the coalition government and the RBI`s upward revision of the FY25 growth forecast to 7.2% have fueled a broad-based rally.
Despite sticky inflation, investors anticipate the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) is closer to an easing cycle.
Sector Performance:
All sectoral indices closed in the green, with notable gains in auto, IT, power, telecom, and metal sectors (up 2-3%).
The BSE midcap index increased by 1.2%, while the smallcap index rose by 2%.
Market Breadth:
Advances: 2,598 shares
Declines: 801 shares
Unchanged: 76 shares
Top Gainers and Losers
Top Gainers:
M&M
Wipro
Tech Mahindra
Infosys
UltraTech Cement
Top Losers:
SBI Life Insurance
Tata Consumer Products
Outlook
The Indian market continues to exhibit strength, with significant gains in key indices. The recovery in Nifty and Bank Nifty, backed by economic stability and positive forecasts, points to a sustained bullish trend. Investors are advised to consider buying on dips, particularly in the identified support zones. Profit booking is expected near the psychological resistance levels, but overall, the market sentiment remains optimistic.
As the market approaches previous all-time highs, careful monitoring of support and resistance levels is crucial for making informed trading decisions.
06 Jun
Market Report: Indian Benchmark Indices - June 6, 2024
Market Overview
The Indian stock market ended higher for the second consecutive session on June 6, amidst significant volatility. The Sensex surged by 692 points (0.93%) to close at 75,074, while the Nifty gained 201 points, ending at 22,821. This positive movement reflects a continued rebound from previous sessions.
Nifty Analysis
Opening & Closing: The Nifty witnessed a gap-up opening, consolidating throughout the day and holding onto its gains.
Daily Performance: On the daily charts, Nifty has shown a sharp recovery in recent sessions, reaching the 22,900 level, aligning with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the fall of 23,340 to 21,280.
Future Expectations: Given the significant run-up and the approach towards a crucial resistance level, a consolidation phase is expected. The anticipated short-term range for Nifty is between 21,800 and 23,000.
Volatility Index: INDIAVIX decreased by 12%, closing at 16.59, indicating reduced market uncertainty.
Sector Performance
Top Gainers: Realty, IT, and Oil & Gas sectors led the gains.
Lagging Sectors: FMCG and Pharma sectors were the major underperformers.
Sector Highlights:
Realty sector emerged as the top performer with gains exceeding 4.5%.
Media and PSU Banks also saw notable gains.
FMCG and Pharma sectors experienced declines.
Bank Nifty Analysis
Performance: Bank Nifty had a rangebound trading day.
Support & Resistance Levels: Key support is identified at 48,800 - 48,500, while resistance is pegged at 49,700 - 50,000.
RBI Policy Impact: The upcoming RBI policy event is expected to influence Bank Nifty`s movement, likely consolidating around the 49,000 mark.
Broader Market Performance
Midcap & Smallcap Indices: Both indices outperformed the benchmark, with midcaps gaining 2% and smallcaps rising by 3%.
Breadth of Market: A total of 2,740 shares advanced, 668 declined, and 70 remained unchanged, indicating broad-based buying interest.
Technical Indicators
Candlestick Pattern: Nifty50 formed a Spinning Top candlestick pattern, signaling indecisiveness between bulls and bears.
Key Levels: Immediate support is seen at 22,485, with resistance at 23,080-23,130.
Major Gainers & Losers
Top Gainers:
HCL Technologies
Shriram Finance
SBI Life Insurance
Tech Mahindra
SBI
Top Losers:
Hindalco Industries
HUL
Asian Paints
Hero MotoCorp
Nestle
Outlook and Strategy
The market has adjusted to recent election outcomes and is buoyed by stability on the global front. While a brief pause or consolidation may occur post-rebound, the overall market sentiment remains positive. It is advisable to adopt a "buy on dips" strategy, focusing on quality stocks during pullbacks. With broad sector participation, investors should stay vigilant for opportunities across various segments.
Conclusion
The Indian stock market displayed robust performance with widespread gains across various sectors, led by realty, IT, and PSU banks. As the Nifty approaches critical resistance levels, a period of consolidation is anticipated. However, the overall bullish trend suggests continued opportunities for investors, especially with reduced market volatility and a positive macroeconomic backdrop.
05 Jun
Market Report: Indian Benchmark Indices Surge After Recovery
Market Overview
Indian benchmark indices exhibited a strong recovery, erasing some of the previous day`s losses and closing higher. The Sensex increased by 2,303 points to close at 74,382, while the Nifty surged by 735 points, ending at 22,620. This rebound follows a significant decline due to political uncertainty, but market sentiment improved considerably after Prime Minister Modi`s speech.
Key Indices Performance
Sensex: Up 2,303 points (3.20%) to 74,382
Nifty: Up 735 points (3.36%) to 22,620
Sectoral Performance
All sectoral indices finished positively, with notable performances in:
Auto, Bank, FMCG, Metal, Telecom, and Media sectors: Up 4-6%
BSE Midcap index: Up 4%
BSE Smallcap index: Up 3%
Market Breadth
Advances: 2348 shares
Declines: 1008 shares
Unchanged: 74 shares
Volatility Index
India VIX: Dropped by 29.4%, settling at 18.885
Technical Analysis
Nifty Index
Support Levels: 22,000 and 21,800
Resistance Levels: 22,800 and 23,000
Moving Averages: Nifty touched its 100-day moving average at 21,786 and closed above its 21-day EMA.
Key Indicators: A close above 22,800 could signal a bullish reversal, potentially rising to 23,000 and beyond.
Bank Nifty Index
Support Levels: 47,800
Resistance Levels: 49,500
Strategy: Buy-on-dip with a stop-loss at 47,500
Technical Signal: Recovery from its 200-day moving average and closing above the rising trendline and 21-day EMA
Options Data
Call Side: Highest open interest at 22,800, followed by 23,000 strike prices.
Put Side: Highest open interest at 22,200 strike price.
Outlook
With the major event behind us, a gradual reduction in volatility is anticipated. Sustaining above the 22,600 level is crucial for a move towards 23,000. The 21,800-22,000 range should provide support in case of profit-taking. Defensive sectors such as FMCG, IT, and pharma remain favored, with a recommendation to be selective in other sectors.
Market Sentiment
The recovery was driven by broad-based buying across various sectors, bolstered by political stability. Investors are now focusing on the formation of the government and the forthcoming RBI policy meeting. The market does not expect any change in RBI’s policy stance due to persistent high food inflation and an expected increase in government spending, which has positively impacted FMCG stocks.
Conclusion
The Indian markets demonstrated a strong recovery, with key indices reclaiming significant ground. The positive close and the bullish signals from technical indicators suggest a potential upward trend, though monitoring key levels will be crucial for determining future movements. Investors are advised to adopt a cautious yet optimistic approach, focusing on defensive sectors and strategic buying on dips.
04 Jun
Closing Bell: Sensex Crashes 4,390 Points, Nifty Dips Below 22,000 as NDA Falls Short
Overview
Today`s market session was marked by a significant downturn, with benchmark indices experiencing sharp declines amid a wave of panic selling. The Nifty index closed at 21,844.50, down nearly 6%, effectively erasing the gains of the past four months. All key sectors, except FMCG, faced substantial losses, with PSUs, energy, and metals being the hardest hit. The broader indices, including the Midcap and Smallcap indices, also suffered heavy losses, each down around 8%.
Key Indices Performance
Nifty 50: Closed at 21844, down 5.93% (1,379 points).
Sensex: Closed at 72079, down 5.74% (4,389 points).
BSE Midcap: Fell by 8%.
BSE Smallcap: Fell by nearly 7%.
Sectoral Performance
PSUs, Energy, Metals: Faced the most significant declines.
FMCG: The only sector to remain in the green.
Realty, Telecom, Metal, Capital Goods, Oil & Gas, Power, PSU Bank: Down more than 10% each.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Nifty
Immediate Support: 21,600
Crucial Support: 21,100 (200-day moving average and 50% Fibonacci retracement level)
Further Decline Support: 20,560 (61.82% Fibonacci retracement level)
Immediate Resistance: 22,310 - 22,550
Consolidation Range: 21,000 - 22,500
Bank Nifty
Immediate Support: 46,150 - 44,000 (200-day moving average and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level)
Immediate Resistance: 48,600 - 49,200
Technical Analysis
The Nifty index has decisively broken down below the previous swing low of 21,820, violating the higher top and higher bottom formation. This suggests a change in the short-term trend, indicating potential retracement of the rise from 18,840 to 23,340 observed between October 2024 and May 2024. The daily chart shows a massive red candle, suggesting extreme pessimism and continued volatility.
Market Sentiment
The unexpected election outcome triggered fear selling, reversing the recent substantial rally. Despite this, market expectations of stability within the coalition, led by BJP, suggest a mitigated substantial downside in the medium term. The political shift towards social economic policies is expected to positively impact the rural economy.
Investment Strategy
Given the current market volatility and uncertainty:
Traders: Should remain cautious and limit trades until stability returns.
Investors: Can use this opportunity to accumulate quality stocks available at bargain prices.
Key Losers and Gainers
Biggest Losers on Nifty
Adani Ports
Adani Enterprises
ONGC
NTPC
SBI
Biggest Gainers on Nifty
HUL
Nestle
Britannia Industries
Hero MotoCorp
Tata Consumer Products
Conclusion
Today`s sharp market decline, driven by election results and subsequent panic selling, has altered the short-term market trend. With key indices breaching critical support levels and forming bearish patterns on the charts, caution is advised for traders. Investors, however, might find this downturn an opportune moment to invest in quality stocks. The market is expected to remain choppy, and participants should wait for signs of stability before making significant trading decisions.
01 Jun
Technical Analysis Report: Nifty`s Market Outlook Amid Election Result Week
Summary
Nifty formed a long-legged Doji candle on the daily charts, marking a potential change in market sentiment after a five-day losing streak. The index closed 42 points higher at 22,531, bouncing back near the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average). Despite this recovery, the market faces potential volatility due to upcoming election results and other macroeconomic factors.
Key Technical Indicators
50-DMA (Day Moving Average): Positioned around the 22,400 level. A breach below this could see Nifty testing the 22,300-22,260 zone.
Resistance Level: Crossing 22,660 could signal a resumption of the bullish trend.
14-Day RSI (Relative Strength Index): At 50.33 and falling, remaining below its 9-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average), indicating weakening momentum.
Historical Context and Election Impact
2004: Nifty fell 20% in two days when UPA unexpectedly won, recovering 45% in the next six months due to a global bull run.
2009: Nifty rose 18% as UPA won more seats than anticipated, benefiting from post-GFC recovery.
2014 & 2019: Markets had factored in BJP`s majority win ahead of results, leading to less dramatic movements.
Market Sentiment
Current Correction: Nifty has corrected around 2% from its all-time high, possibly factoring in a reduced majority for the incumbent government. However, other global events are also influencing the market.
Forward-Looking Nature: Markets often incorporate expected outcomes in advance, reversing only on unexpected surprises.
Trading Strategy
For New Traders:
Avoid Trading: High-volatility days like election results day are risky. Market movements can be erratic, driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals.
For Long-Term Investors:
Stay the Course: Election day volatility is a short-term event. Maintain SIPs in stocks, WealthBaskets, and mutual funds. Focus on long-term wealth creation and the ongoing structural bull run in India.
Ignore Short-Term Movements: Historical data shows that despite short-term volatility during elections, markets generally revert to fundamental trends.
Potential Risks
Election Results: Unexpected outcomes can lead to short-term volatility. Market expectations will evolve until exit polls.
Global Events:
Geopolitical Tensions: Re-escalation in Eastern Europe or the Middle East could disrupt markets.
Federal Reserve Policy: Shifts from dovish to hawkish stances could lead to interest rate changes, impacting investor sentiment.
Conclusion
While the Nifty has shown signs of resilience, the upcoming election results present a significant event risk. Long-term investors should not alter their strategies based on short-term volatility. However, it is crucial to monitor global macroeconomic developments, as they can have substantial impacts on market movements.
Maintaining a focus on long-term investment goals, while being aware of potential short-term disruptions, is key. The fundamental strength of the Indian market, combined with a cautious approach to high-volatility events, will likely yield the best outcomes for investors.
Actionable Insights
Avoid Short-Term Trades: Especially on election results day due to unpredictable volatility.
Continue SIPs: For long-term investors, ensuring steady investment in mutual funds and stocks.
Monitor Global Events: Stay informed about geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve policies that could impact market sentiment.
By adhering to these guidelines, investors can navigate the election result week with greater confidence and less risk of significant losses.
31 May
NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION CALL TIPS FOR 3 JUNE 2024
On May 31, the market exhibited extreme volatility ahead of the GDP data announcement expected later in the day and the Lok Sabha general election `Exit Poll` results scheduled for June 1. Despite this volatility, the market managed to close on a positive note, snapping a five-day losing streak.
Market Performance
Sensex: Closed up by 75 points, ending at 73961.
Nifty: Closed up by 42 points, ending at 22530.
Weekly Performance
For the week, both the BSE Sensex and Nifty50 shed nearly 2 percent each, reflecting the overall market uncertainty and volatility.
Intraday Movement
Nifty: The market opened positive, starting the June F&O series above 22,550. It experienced rangebound movement throughout the day but ended higher.
Top Nifty Gainers: Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, Shriram Finance, Coal India, Tata Steel.
Top Nifty Losers: Divis Labs, Nestle India, LTIMindtree, Maruti Suzuki, TCS.
Sectoral Performance
Positive Performers: Metal, power, telecom, and realty sectors were up by 1-2 percent.
Negative Performers: Media, FMCG, healthcare, and IT sectors were down by 0.3-1 percent.
Midcap and Smallcap Indices
BSE Midcap Index: Ended flat.
BSE Smallcap Index: Gained 0.8 percent.
52-Week Highs
130 stocks touched their 52-week highs on the BSE. Notable among them were Blue Star, Coromandel International, Emami, Fortis Healthcare, GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals, Godawari Power, J Kumar Infra, Jindal Stainless, Jupiter Wagons, KNR Construction, Samvardhana Motherson International, Oberoi Realty, and TVS Holdings.
Nifty Analysis
The Nifty remained volatile within a narrow range as investors awaited the election results. The highest call writing is visible at 23000, while significant put writing is at 22500. This suggests that the Nifty might oscillate between 22500 and 23000 in the next few days. A fall below 22500 could trigger a correction towards 22000.
Crucial Levels:
Support: 22420-22313
Resistance: 22820-22900
Bank Nifty Analysis
Bank Nifty saw a sharp recovery from its 21-day EMA, closing near the resistance level of 49000. The RSI is making higher lows and heading towards a bullish crossover. A buy-on-dips strategy is advisable with a stop loss at the 21-day EMA, placed at 48500. Therefore, 48500 is strong support and 49200 is the first resistance. If Bank Nifty breaks 49200 on the daily chart, it could soon reach 50000.
Crucial Levels:
Support: 48600-48500
Resistance: 49700-49800
Conclusion
The market managed to close positively despite the high volatility, largely driven by mixed global cues and anticipation of significant upcoming events. Investors are advised to watch crucial levels closely as breakouts or breakdowns from these levels could determine the short-term direction of the market.
29 May
NIFTY BANKNIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 30 MAY 2024
Overview
Indian benchmark indices ended in the red for the fourth consecutive session on May 29, 2024. The Nifty 50 closed at 22,704, down 183 points while the Sensex fell by 667 points finishing at 74,502 Despite broader indices performing relatively better, the market witnessed significant pressure across most sectors, particularly in banking, financials, and IT.
Key Indices Performance
Nifty 50: 22,704 (-0.80%)
Sensex: 74,502 (-0.89%)
BSE Midcap Index: -0.4%
BSE Smallcap Index: +0.2%
Market Sentiment
Bears dominated the market, leading to a sharp decline in the Nifty. Heavy call writing was observed at the 23,000 and 22,800 strikes, while put writing was significant at the 22,800 and 22,700 strikes. This option data indicates a likely expiry around 22,800 for Nifty. However, a dip below 22,700 could trigger additional selling pressure. Immediate resistance is positioned at 22,800.
Bank Nifty
The Bank Nifty index showed a clear negative sentiment, opening below its support level at 49,000 and closing near its 21-day EMA at 48,400. A failure to sustain above this level could drive the index down to 48,000. Therefore, 48,400 now serves as the support level, with 49,000 as the resistance.
Sectoral Performance
Top Losers: Banking, Financials, IT
Top Performers: Pharma, Metal
Despite the overall market decline, the broader indices (midcap and smallcap) performed relatively better, finishing nearly flat to slightly negative. Selling pressure was more pronounced in index stocks, whereas mid and smallcap segments managed to hold their recovery, outperforming the frontline index.
Sectoral Indices
Capital Goods, Telecom, Healthcare, Metal, Power: Ended in the green
Auto, Bank, FMCG, IT, Oil & Gas, Realty: Declined by 0.3-1%
Market Breadth
Advancing Shares: 1473
Declining Shares: 1871
Unchanged Shares: 90
Notable Movements
Biggest Nifty Losers
HDFC Life
SBI Life Insurance
ICICI Bank
Tata Consumer Products
Tech Mahindra
Biggest Nifty Gainers
Hindalco
Power Grid Corp
Divis Labs
Nestle
Sun Pharma
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, Nifty breached its immediate support at 22,780. Considering the monthly expiry day tomorrow, a short covering move might lift the index above the 22,780 level. However, the market remains cautious, especially with the approach of the May derivatives contracts expiry, which is likely to maintain high volatility.
Global Cues
Weak global cues and profit-taking ahead of the US core PCE data, a critical gauge of inflation, contributed to the bearish sentiment. Rising global inflation, particularly in Japan and Australia, has dampened investor expectations of a near-term US Federal Reserve rate cut. This has resulted in broad-based weakness across sectors, with financials and IT facing significant underperformance.
28 May
NIFTY OUTLOOK & TRADING TIPS FOR 29 MAY 2024
Overview
The Indian benchmark indices experienced a volatile trading session on May 28, 2024, with both the Sensex and Nifty closing lower. The Sensex declined by 220.05 points (0.29%) to 75,170.45, while the Nifty fell by 44.30 points (0.19%) to 22,888.20.
Nifty Performance
Nifty witnessed another day of consolidation, opening on a positive note but succumbing to profit booking at higher levels. The index closed with a loss of approximately 44 points, forming another bearish candle on the daily chart. Over the past three trading sessions, Nifty has been consolidating around the 23,000 mark. This trend is expected to continue until the expiry of the May series, with potential retests of the breakout zone between 22,800 and 22,750.
Key Levels
Support: 22,800 (coincides with 40-hour moving average)
Resistance: 23,110 (immediate resistance)
Consolidation Range: 22,700 - 23,100
Sectoral and Stock Performance
Top Nifty Losers: Adani Ports, Power Grid Corp, Coal India, Adani Enterprises, BPCL.
Top Nifty Gainers: Divis Laboratories, SBI Life Insurance, HDFC Life, Grasim Industries, Hero MotoCorp.
Sectoral Performance:
Top Performers: Pharma, Media.
Underperformers: Oil & Gas, Capital Goods, Telecom, PSU Bank, Power, Realty (down 1-2%).
Broader Market Indices
BSE Midcap: Down 0.5%.
BSE Smallcap: Down 1%.
Bank Nifty
The Bank Nifty index experienced some profit booking at higher levels, closing down approximately 140 points. Despite this, the overall outlook remains positive, with the recent dip viewed as routine profit booking rather than a trend reversal.
Key Levels
Support: 49,000 - 48,800
Resistance: 49,350 - 49,500
Momentum Indicators: RSI at 61, maintaining above 14-day EMA
Market Sentiment
The market exhibited mild consolidation post the recent sharp surge. With uncertainty and elevated India VIX, volatility is expected to persist as the market approaches the election outcome.
Trading Strategy
Nifty: Traders should utilize dips towards the lower end of the 22,700 - 23,100 range to accumulate quality largecap and large midcap stocks.
Bank Nifty: A buy-on-dips strategy is recommended, with a stop-loss at 48,700.
Call and Put Writing
Significant call writing was observed at the 23,000 strike price, followed by 23,100 and 22,900 strikes, indicating strong resistance at these levels. The decline in the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) due to less active put writing suggests a cautious market stance.
Conclusion
The Nifty`s ongoing consolidation phase is likely to persist, maintaining the index within the 22,700-23,100 range. Despite the consolidation, the underlying earnings growth for the March quarter has been above expectations, which supports current valuations. Traders are advised to focus on accumulating quality stocks during dips and closely monitor the performance of IT and FMCG sectors for further cues. The market`s volatility is expected to continue, driven by external uncertainties and domestic economic indicators.
27 May
Stock Market Report Nifty Outlook For Tomorrow: May 27, 2024
Overview
Today`s trading session on Indian equity indices saw a mixed performance with Bank Nifty showing significant activity and Nifty50 closing on a flat note after an initial rally. Key levels of support and resistance were tested across various indices, influencing market sentiment and investor actions.
Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty opened strong, surpassing the 49,000 resistance level. However, it faced substantial selling pressure in the 49,600-49,800 range, establishing 49,600 as a new resistance level. Notable put writing at the 49,000 strike price signals robust support at this level. The overall sentiment remains bullish, and a buy-on-dip strategy is recommended with a stop loss at 48,900. If Bank Nifty closes above 49,600, it could potentially move towards the 50,000 mark.
Key Levels:
Support: 49,000
Resistance: 49,600, 50,000
Stop Loss: 48,900
Nifty50
Nifty50 began the week at a new high of 23,039, driven primarily by banking sector gains. However, the index faced profit-booking pressure in the last session, leading to a close at 22,932.45, down by 24.65 points. A bearish candle formed at record levels suggests a possible retest of the strong support at 22,780, with immediate resistance at 23,110.
Key Levels:
Support: 22,780
Resistance: 23,110
Market Sentiment
The overall market sentiment remains positive, bolstered by better earnings growth, expectations of a revival in private capital expenditure (capex), and a reduction in Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) selling intensity. Upcoming economic data, including India`s Q4 GDP and US inflation figures, will likely influence market direction in the near term.
Sectoral Performance
Top Performing Sectors: Banking, Realty, and Information Technology (IT) indices, each gaining 0.5%.
Underperforming Sectors: Oil & Gas, Power, and Media sectors, down by 0.5-1%.
Equity Indices Summary
Sensex: Down 19.89 points or 0.03% to 75,390.50
Nifty: Down 24.60 points or 0.11% to 22,932.50
Top Gainers and Losers
Gainers:
Divis Labs
IndusInd Bank
Axis Bank
LTIMindtree
Adani Ports
Losers:
Adani Enterprises
Wipro
Grasim Industries
ONGC
SBI Life Insurance
Broader Market Indices
BSE Midcap: Up 0.6%
BSE Smallcap: Ended flat
IPO Update: Awfis Space Solutions
Awfis Space Solutions` Initial Public Offering (IPO) witnessed strong investor demand, with the issue being subscribed 76.43 times on the final day of bidding. The IPO, valued at Rs 599 crore, includes a fresh issue of shares worth Rs 128 crore and an Offer-for-Sale (OFS) of 1,22,95,699 equity shares by existing shareholders. The price band was set at Rs 364-383 per share.
Subscription Details:
Non-Institutional Investors: 110.37 times
Retail Investors: 46.27 times
Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs): 70.19 times
Employee Segment: 20.93 times
Conclusion
Today`s session highlighted key resistance and support levels across indices, with the banking sector playing a pivotal role in market movements. Investors are advised to watch the upcoming economic data releases closely, as they will likely provide further market direction. The overall bullish sentiment and strong IPO interest indicate sustained investor confidence in the market`s growth potential.
24 May
Navigating the Nifty: What to Do When the Index Hits an All-Time High
Introduction
The Nifty 50, a benchmark index of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India, is a barometer of the Indian equity market`s performance. Reaching an all-time high can be an exciting and intimidating moment for investors. While it signifies optimism and potential for further growth, it also raises questions about the appropriate investment strategies. In this report, we`ll explore what investors can do when the Nifty hits an all-time high.
Assess Your Portfolio
When the Nifty reaches a new peak, it`s a good time to review your investment portfolio. Evaluate whether your portfolio aligns with your financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Consider rebalancing your portfolio if certain assets are overweighted or underweighted based on your investment strategy.
Key Actions:
Review Asset Allocation: Ensure that your current asset mix aligns with your risk tolerance and financial goals.
Identify Overweight/Underweight Positions: Adjust holdings that have deviated from your target allocation.
Align with Financial Goals: Ensure your investments are still appropriate for your long-term objectives.
Stay Disciplined
One of the cardinal rules of investing is to stay disciplined regardless of market conditions. Just because the Nifty has reached a new high doesn`t mean you should abandon your investment strategy or chase returns. Market timing is notoriously difficult, and attempting to do so can lead to costly mistakes. Stick to your long-term investment plan and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term market movements.
Key Actions:
Adhere to Your Strategy: Maintain your long-term investment strategy.
Avoid Impulsive Decisions: Refrain from making investment changes based on short-term market movements.
Diversify Your Investments
Diversification is key to managing risk in your investment portfolio. Instead of trying to time the market or concentrate your investments in a few stocks, consider diversifying across different asset classes, sectors, and geographies. This can help mitigate the impact of market volatility and reduce the risk of significant losses.
Key Actions:
Diversify Asset Classes: Invest across various asset classes such as equities, bonds, and real estate.
Spread Across Sectors: Allocate investments across different sectors to avoid sector-specific risks.
Global Exposure: Consider international investments to diversify geographic risk.
Focus on Quality
In a bull market, it`s easy to get caught up in the hype and invest in speculative or overvalued stocks. However, it`s essential to focus on the quality of the companies you`re investing in. Look for companies with strong fundamentals, competitive advantages, and sustainable growth prospects. Avoid chasing hot stocks or blindly following market trends.
Key Actions:
Fundamental Analysis: Invest in companies with strong financial health and growth potential.
Avoid Speculation: Stay away from speculative or overhyped stocks.
Rebalance Regularly
Regularly rebalancing your portfolio can help maintain your desired asset allocation and risk profile. When the Nifty hits an all-time high, it may be a signal to trim positions in assets that have performed well and reallocate funds to assets that are relatively undervalued. Rebalancing forces you to sell high and buy low, which is a fundamental principle of investing.
Key Actions:
Scheduled Rebalancing: Set regular intervals (e.g., quarterly or annually) to review and rebalance your portfolio.
Trim and Reallocate: Reduce positions in overperforming assets and reinvest in undervalued ones.
Consider Systematic Investment
Systematic investment plans (SIPs) can be an effective way to invest in the stock market, especially during periods of high volatility. Instead of trying to time the market, SIPs allow you to invest a fixed amount regularly, regardless of market conditions. This strategy can help smooth out the impact of market fluctuations and take advantage of rupee-cost averaging.
Key Actions:
Regular Contributions: Invest fixed amounts at regular intervals through SIPs.
Rupee-Cost Averaging: Benefit from averaging out the cost of investments over time.
Stay Informed
Finally, stay informed about market developments, economic indicators, and geopolitical events that could impact the stock market. While it`s essential to avoid reacting impulsively to short-term noise, being aware of broader trends can help you make more informed investment decisions.
Key Actions:
Market Updates: Keep up with financial news and market trends.
Economic Indicators: Monitor key economic indicators and their potential impact on the market.
Conclusion
Reaching an all-time high can be a significant milestone for the Nifty and for investors. While it`s natural to feel optimistic during such times, it`s crucial to maintain a disciplined and diversified approach to investing. By assessing your portfolio, staying disciplined, diversifying your investments, focusing on quality, rebalancing regularly, considering systematic investment, and staying informed, you can navigate the Nifty`s highs with confidence and prudence.
23 May
NIFTY OUTLOOK & OPTION TRADING TIPS FOR 24 MAY 2024
Overview
Indian benchmark indices surged to record highs on May 23, 2024, driven by strong performance in the banking and automotive sectors. The Sensex closed a
